psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Sucks that the ns stream energy stretches things out. Make the whole thing a weak/disorganized shield instead of a consolidated system. Trailing vort looks like the good panels we had for the first one a few days ago. lol. This is definitely the year of the d10 snow storm. Other crappy years never even teased us. This year is torcher. That second system has always had a better chance to amplify. The first has always been more of an overrunning driven event with the exception of a couple runs that teased with a perfect phase job. But it has way less room to dig and amp then the one on its heels. The key to trend yet is to get the first system to pull up and help hold enough confluence ahead of the next. Almost everything pops a good storm in the day 10-13 but some are rain if the first system washes out and the war redevelops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Anyone see that low on the GFS enter in Montana at 252 and leave at 300ish in South Carolina? Just straight up southeast moving low the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Crazy gfs run. Next 2 weeks could be fun. Definitely not short on opportunities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 18Z GFS was a weenie run for sure especially for this year. The evolution later on in the run seemed a little bizarre though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 54 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Anyone see that low on the GFS enter in Montana at 252 and leave at 300ish in South Carolina? Just straight up southeast moving low the whole time. sometimes this happens behind miller a systems a northern piece of energy dives into the deep trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 a. o. k. to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, BTRWx said: a. o. k. to me Until when? Will that also disappear (or dramatically change) on the models 24 hours from now? (Sorry, my cynicism is getting the better of me, lol) The models have been so erratic it's hard to trust anything being even close to right lately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Until when? Will that also disappear on the models 24 hours from now? (Sorry, my cynicism is getting the better of me, lol) Can't trust anything anymore! But we shall see... middle of the week, then the +/- storm ratio will be doubled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 49 minutes ago, BTRWx said: middle of the week, then the +/- storm ratio will be doubled The +/- ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: The +/- ratio? yea, for a day 8 threat you get 4 storms and 4 no storms (1:1), for a day 4 threat you get 8 storms and 2 no storms (4:1), and 2 days out just 1 fluke run (7:1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 00z gfs is better than 18z. Step in right direction. Just need the cold to trend more. It will be interesting to see if the euro caves to the gfs. Currently, the euro isn't even close to gfs solution. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 29 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: 00z gfs is better than 18z. Step in right direction. Just need the cold to trend more. It will be interesting to see if the euro caves to the gfs. Currently, the euro isn't even close to gfs solution. Lol. I don't want to say it, but 0z GooFS cuts west pretty badly. Good thing it's a week away op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Lol @ that day 10 thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 17 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I don't want to say it, but 0z GooFS cuts west pretty badly. Good thing it's a week away op run. All i can say is that is one hell of a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Lol @ that day 10 thing. We're below normal on Day 10 snow right now. We're trying to get back to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 4 hours ago, PaEasternWX said: 00z gfs is better than 18z. Step in right direction. Just need the cold to trend more. It will be interesting to see if the euro caves to the gfs. Currently, the euro isn't even close to gfs solution. Lol. Looks like a 2/4 inch thump before we switch to rain on 00z GFS at hours 159-168... the snow line isn't far away though (retreats to western Maryland) but this needs to adjust east by 50/100 miles over the next week to really help and become a better storm. I worry it is more likely to continue to push west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 38 minutes ago, Joshfsu123 said: Looks like a 2/4 inch thump before we switch to rain on 00z GFS at hours 159-168... the snow line isn't far away though (retreats to western Maryland) but this needs to adjust east by 50/100 miles over the next week to really help and become a better storm. I worry it is more likely to continue to push west. The op has been converging on this cut west idea. It seems when that happens it's tough to break it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 No EURO banter. Not a good sign. Weird evolution to the storm nine days away. We're on the roller coastal again. At least now the atmosphere knows it can snow in NOVA now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, Wonderdog said: No EURO banter. Not a good sign. Weird evolution to the storm nine days away. We're on the roller coastal again. At least now the atmosphere knows it can snow in NOVA now. If you are talking the follow up storm that is far from the case. Even stronger signal for a significant storm in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The op has been converging on this cut west idea. It seems when that happens it's tough to break it. With the setup we have now and have had for a couple of days the best case scenario is to see that low weak, at least initially. Any strengthening and amplification to it we would need to see happen after it is almost due south of out region. Otherwise we will most likely see it cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 42 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: No EURO banter. Not a good sign. Weird evolution to the storm nine days away. We're on the roller coastal again. At least now the atmosphere knows it can snow in NOVA now. Atmosphere doesn't know it can still snow at Bwi yet. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 EPS is still luke warm to our storm for next weekend. If you squint real hard you can maybe see a slight improvement. Snowfall means through that period might have gone up a smidgen as well. The big story with the EPS is the follow up storm. The signal it is showing for a significant storm is even stronger then the 12Z and that was impressive. Can't recall the EPS showing such a strong signal at 10+ days in recent memory. As far as details on snow/no snow, evolution, track etc... that is still some what muddy when just looking at the means and I haven't yet had a chance to look at the individual members to see how they are playing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 For those curious, the snowfall means on the EPS ticked up a touch through the period of the follow up storm. 12Z had roughly an inch through that period whereas the 00Z now shows an inch and a half. I am not overly concerned with the paltry number at this point and will probably just focus on seeing a steady increase through subsequent runs. There is plenty of potential for our region as evidenced by a handful of big hitters within the members as well as quite a few moderate events as well. Just think the low snowfall means we see now is an indication that many options are on the table at this point. We will probably get a better handle on the possibilities once the models start resolving the first storm which will have a huge impact on the follow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: For those curious, the snowfall means on the EPS ticked up a touch through the period of the follow up storm. 12Z had roughly an inch through that period whereas the 00Z now shows an inch and a half. I am not overly concerned with the paltry number at this point and will probably just focus on seeing a steady increase through subsequent runs. There is plenty of potential for our region as evidenced by a handful of big hitters within the members as well as quite a few moderate events as well. Just think the low snowfall means we see now is an indication that many options are on the table at this point. We will probably get a better handle on the possibilities once the models start resolving the first storm which will have a huge impact on the follow up. What day are you talking? 11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: What day are you talking? 11? Yeah the day 10-11 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 The bad news is the 06Z strengthens our first low (day 6-7) too soon and pulls it to our west. The good news is that the High running off the coast is able to lock in the cold somewhat and we get a 6 to 10 inch snowfall through the metropolitan region per weatherbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 GFS has a strong low running up the coast/coastal plain for day 10. Setup isn't good though with a low in the lakes and a High that has already departed to the east. Mostly rain with a little snow initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Yeah the day 10-11 storm. Well then I can tell you why the ensembles show an inch and a half mean.....it's a cutter per the ensembles http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=T850_mslp&runtime=2017013000&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: The bad news is the 06Z strengthens our first low (day 6-7) too soon and pulls it to our west. The good news is that the High running off the coast is able to lock in the cold somewhat and we get a 6 to 10 inch snowfall through the metropolitan region per weatherbell. I'd take that GFS solution and run with it, 850s barely get above freezing. Thump --> dryslot --> cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: EPS is still luke warm to our storm for next weekend. If you squint real hard you can maybe see a slight improvement. Snowfall means through that period might have gone up a smidgen as well. The big story with the EPS is the follow up storm. The signal it is showing for a significant storm is even stronger then the 12Z and that was impressive. Can't recall the EPS showing such a strong signal at 10+ days in recent memory. As far as details on snow/no snow, evolution, track etc... that is still some what muddy when just looking at the means and I haven't yet had a chance to look at the individual members to see how they are playing out. It's a big storm signal for sure. My one concern for snow now that it's getting closer and some basic pattern signals are being hinted at would be the WAR. The recent runs are swinging the day 7 storm out and not really amplifying it much and it's long gone from the 50/60 space by day 10. Then they pop the dreaded war which vacates the cold ahead of the system. That then enhances the chances of an inland track too. Get cold in front and it's likely to jump to the coast where the baroclinoc zone will be. It's still too far out to worry much about details. The Jan 22 storm last year looked to have temp issues at day 10. The pattern across Canada is good enough leading in to think it cools trend better in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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