psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Nice little front end thump to drizzle for a main course then some second wave back end love for desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Winner winner gfs shows snow at dinner. Hahaha You need to coin that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 I started a thread a couple years ago with met 101 stuff. If someone can find it please bump it. We can add plenty new material but its a good starting point with content iirc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gfs is more of a tn valley overrunning event than an actual storm. Vort is sheared pretty good. Not that I think shear/suppression on 8 day progs is something to worry about. Hasn't held all year. The models might be in the process of transitioning from putting the emphasis on that first wave running out from the stj ahead of the northern branch to phasing something in from the northern branch digging in behind. It's sure trending that way at h5. Way more amped diggier look each run today. That would complicate things some but raise the stakes as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 It's 9 days out. It could trend anywhere from 1004 mb low off the Georgia coast to a March 93 Superstorm. All we know is the pattern is somewhat favorable with the 50/50 low, but even that doesn't make it impossible to get a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I started a thread a couple years ago with met 101 stuff. If someone can find it please bump it. We can add plenty new material but its a good starting point with content iirc 54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Since there seems to be interest I'll start a thread later when I have a minute and point out some of these things you and others are asking about on h5 plots. That's really the level you want to look at to understand this. The surface is driven from what's going on above in most cases. Have to look at the steering currents. The surface meso features become important only once you have nailed down the synoptic scale main ideas. Ahh yes, thanks both of you--been hoping somebody would make a thread like that since I first started following this forum a few years ago! Now some of these terms won't be sounding like Chinese anymore, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I started a thread a couple years ago with met 101 stuff. If someone can find it please bump it. We can add plenty new material but its a good starting point with content iirc Great idea I remember that. I'll add more after dinner when I can get on the computer and really dig trough stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 I think the gfs is flirting with a major system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think the gfs is flirting with a major system. Beautiful run at h5. This is day 6. There is a reason things are getting interesting. Look at that blocking over GL. And it develops around day 3 now. Then fast foreword to the threat day 8. That trough is digging more and taking on more neg tilt each run. It's trending towards a classic look. And we're not done by along shot the pattern is loaded day 10 for that vort pinwheeling down or if the stj ejects that sw system. Someone sneezes and we could get an east coast bomb in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 I'm seeing that the EPS is way stronger with the ridge over the west coast at the 8-day mark. I don't want to be adding noise to the discussion here, but this looks like a pretty substantive difference to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 You could tell by looking at 500 things were going to be north and a bit warmer at about 120hr. Am I wrong about the warmer part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Great idea I remember that. I'll add more after dinner when I can get on the computer and really dig trough stuff. I'm not one to post stuff, more lurking and learning, but thanks for all the work you guys do to make it a good learning experience for a weather weenie like me. I live just outside this forum, but Philly forum is always dead, and people in NYC forum seem to always be fighting about departures from average, so I come here. Sorry if this is banter, but thanks again for the work you guys do in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, BlueDXer75 said: I'm not one to post stuff, more lurking and learning, but thanks for all the work you guys do to make it a good learning experience for a weather weenie like me. I live just outside this forum, but Philly forum is always dead, and people in NYC forum seem to always be fighting about departures from average, so I come here. Sorry if this is banter, but thanks again for the work you guys do in here Found it! https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/32802-mid-atlantic-met-class-thread/#comment-1392252 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You could tell by looking at 500 things were going to be north and a bit warmer at about 120hr. Am I wrong about the warmer part? We always have to worry about something at day 8. And at our latitude warm is usually the greater risk. But if is not were worried about suppression. Or both lol. But it's way too early for that kind of detailed analysis. The general trends are what we're looking at mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Beautiful run at h5. This is day 6. There is a reason things are getting interesting. Look at that blocking over GL. And it develops around day 3 now. Then fast foreword to the threat day 8. That trough is digging more and taking on more neg tilt each run. It's trending towards a classic look. And we're not done by along shot the pattern is loaded day 10 for that vort pinwheeling down or if the stj ejects that sw system. Someone sneezes and we could get an east coast bomb in that setup. Gonna ask a dumb question so shoot me now but what would prevent this from turning really negative and cutting west of us. It doesn't seem like classic CAD to me and 850s look a bit warmer. I know we are way out on the op run. Is it the GL block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Beautiful run at h5. This is day 6. There is a reason things are getting interesting. Look at that blocking over GL. And it develops around day 3 now. Then fast foreword to the threat day 8. That trough is digging more and taking on more neg tilt each run. It's trending towards a classic look. And we're not done by along shot the pattern is loaded day 10 for that vort pinwheeling down or if the stj ejects that sw system. Someone sneezes and we could get an east coast bomb in that setup. Glad to see you're thinking along those lines. It really looks close to being a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Gonna ask a dumb question so shoot me now but what would prevent this from turning really negative and cutting west of us. It doesn't seem like classic CAD to me and 850s look a bit warmer. I know we are way out on the op run. Is it the GL block? It could cut, not all blocks guarantee results, but as the system approaches the blocking is displacing everything south. The piece of the PV rotating through Quebec to our north gets blocked in. That creates the confluence that promotes higher pressures in front. It also mutes the ridging then forces the next trough to dig more and not lift to our north. All that helps. On the down side that northern stream wave could be trouble if there was an early phase or if the system gets sheared enough that precip is light and temps become borderline. There is always a fail option lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 The longer range beyond day 10 continues to look really good. It is encouraging to see a wintry pattern that appears to want to stick around a while on just about all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Glad to see you're thinking along those lines. It really looks close to being a big deal. I agree as well. Not only is the d8+ deal full of potential, the pattern allows repetitive progressions down the line. I also like that one of the more unlikely outcomes would be a track so far west that we get skipped with precip or plain rain. Each vort that clears the east coast can potentially reinforce confluence and the area of low heights in far eastern Canada so we can fail with one but still be in the game for any others down the line. Breathing room is something that has basically been non existent so fat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 18z gefs isn't very impressive for the d8+ deal. The last 2 gefs runs have backed off a good bit on upside potential. Still a long ways to go but I won't ignore the possibility of a weak system or non event. Otoh- another run with a very active and generally very good right through d16 for multiple chances at moving winter out of the complete disaster classification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs isn't very impressive for the d8+ deal. The last 2 gefs runs have backed off a good bit on upside potential. Still a long ways to go but I won't ignore the possibility of a weak system or non event. Otoh- another run with a very active and generally very good right through d16 for multiple chances at moving winter out of the complete disaster classification. Yea the day 8 storm is still there and a real trackable event but the gfs seems unsure what to do with the northern and southern stream interaction and so there are a lot of weak solutions. I know someone's going to throw something at me for even bringing up something at that range but hoy cow is the day 10-15 loaded on both the gefs and EPS. And yes it's way out but unlike when we're waiting for the pattern to flip long range that look is set in motion by what's happening right now. It's a natural progression. I give it a bit more credence due to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs isn't very impressive for the d8+ deal. The last 2 gefs runs have backed off a good bit on upside potential. Still a long ways to go but I won't ignore the possibility of a weak system or non event. Otoh- another run with a very active and generally very good right through d16 for multiple chances at moving winter out of the complete disaster classification. Too many ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 59 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Too many ensembles And too little snow. It's a terrible combination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Gfs.....how many times can you drive a nail under your fingernails in 1 winter season and keep thinking it won't hurt the next time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Suppression depression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Well it's another solution...2 pieces...interesting. Don't think we are quite done yet. Ran the last 6 op runs..not one looks like the previous one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Suppression depression That's not the final solution as you might have imagined. There are plenty more to go...buckle up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: Suppression depression Psuhoffman posted one of those cfs monthly snowfall maps 7-10 days ago and even though it showed decent snow over us, I said my interpretation was that 2 of the 4 maps showed more snow to our south and east noting the storm from early month. Welp, if the gfs is at all close to being correct, it's looking like the cfs idea was onto something. Big IF, I know, but it does focus decent snows on every event to our s/e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Psuhoffman posted one of those cfs monthly snowfall maps 7-10 days ago and even though it showed decent snow over us, I said my interpretation was that 2 of the 4 maps showed more snow to our south and east noting the storm from early month. Welp, if the gfs is at all close to being correct, it's looking like the cfs idea was onto something. Big IF, I know, but it does focus decent snows on every event to our s/e. Looking at 500mb tells me there are many solutions. Not saying we will do well but I will take a southern solution any day over cutter. Once a steak is well done you can't uncook it. Not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Too much of a low in the lakes on the GFS. Liked the Euro better. Now if we can go back to last year and get the 1032 great lakes high back that'd be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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