Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

[malak05]

2 hours ago, JoshM said:

I'm too tired to look at the ZR maps, but it appears Atlanta towards Columbia are going to get hammered, if this were to verify.

1 inch of freezing rain it would be a diaster

[PackGrad05]

RAH playing it conservative again.  If you take them literally, sounds like a slight chance of rain/snow or nothing at all for the rest of the week.  

[PackGrad05]

I also just looked at the SREF temps for RDU and they are blazing through 18Z Thursday.  Nowhere near freezing.

[FallsLake]

7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

RAH playing it conservative again.  If you take them literally, sounds like a slight chance of rain/snow or nothing at all for the rest of the week.  

I would be doing the same thing. Many options still on the table. *I agree with Cheeznado

[mackerel_sky]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

I also just looked at the SREF temps for RDU and they are blazing through 18Z Thursday.  Nowhere near freezing.

Good thing the main event is Saturday! Thursday was novelty at best!

[Tacoma]

Yep even though things look better for snow next weekend GSP also not taking it serious yet.

[PackGrad05]

I'd like to see temperatures be much colder prior to the main event.  Otherwise, anything that falls Thursday or during the weekend will not initially stick.  Cuts down on totals a little bit and makes an initial "slush" (I know people blast this, but it is true)

[FallsLake]

1 minute ago, fritschy said:

Yep even though things look better for snow next weekend GSP also not taking it serious yet.

I think as weather hobbyist we should be taking this seriously. We just have to (seriously) know we don't know exactly how this is going to pan out.

[PackGrad05]

I still think temperatures will be an issue with this.  I'm not buying the cold air extent that the models are currently showing.  RDU will be a rain/snow mix or snow at the onset before turning to rain.

[toxictwister00]

Going by the model extraction data, most of what falls in Atlanta is snow/sleet, there 's no freezing rain. 850s are between 0 to -2°C throughout the duration of the storm. Oh for the love of God please be right! lol

http://68.226.77.253/text/offhrGFSxExtract/GFS_KATL.txt

Station ID: KATL Lat:   33.64 Long:   84.42                                                        
 GFS Model Run:  6Z  2JAN 2017 Clouds Bases and Tops are now agl
  HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb  MSLP  TCC PRS WX  Low      Middle     High     Max    Min  Sfc
                Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp    mb    %  TEXT   Clouds    Clouds    Clouds    Tmp    Tmp  Vis
   0 01/02 06Z   51     50      93       5    0.00  0.00    561    578   12.1 -12.0 1020.2   0          CLR       CLR       CLR    ****   ****  1.1
   6 01/02 12Z   55     55     113       5    0.30  0.04    560    578   11.7 -14.0 1020.8 100 -TSRA 014BKN057 116OVC230 230OVC395   54     51  0.0
  12 01/02 18Z   59     59     127       5    0.17  0.11    560    578   11.6 -14.2 1020.7 100 -TSRA 017BKN052 149BKN223 229OVC380   59     55  0.5
  18 01/03 00Z   60     60     132       7    0.14  0.12    561    577   11.6 -14.5 1018.2 100 -TSRA 003BKN038 172SCT207 249OVC406   61     59  0.5
  24 01/03 06Z   59     58     156       6    0.33  0.03    561    574   11.4 -14.3 1015.1 100 -TSRA 010BKN049 116BKN208 242OVC421   62     58  0.5
  30 01/03 12Z   61     61     224       6    0.31  0.26    563    572   11.2 -11.1 1011.5  94 -TSRA 004BKN050 134FEW225 229SCT361   61     59  0.5
  36 01/03 18Z   65     62     259       9    0.02  0.01    563    572   10.7 -13.2 1010.6  96 -RA   010BKN035 192FEW229 296BKN389   65     61  2.5
  42 01/04 00Z   59     58     270       7    0.01  0.00    561    570    9.5 -12.1 1010.6 100 -RA   016BKN041    FEW    298BKN411   66     59  0.5
  48 01/04 06Z   57     56     287       6    0.00  0.00    559    568    6.4 -11.4 1010.6  95 -RA   016BKN040    CLR    270BKN418   59     57  0.5
  54 01/04 12Z   53     52     310       6    0.00  0.00    555    565    5.6 -13.3 1011.6  92 -RA   020BKN037    CLR    300BKN398   57     53  0.5
  60 01/04 18Z   57     47     322       9    0.00  0.00    552    562    3.7 -16.4 1012.4  79       012SCT022 207FEW226 259BKN363   57     52 20.0
  66 01/05 00Z   46     41     327       8    0.00  0.00    547    559    4.9 -18.6 1014.3  98 -RA   025SCT036 173BKN224 224BKN280   57     46  6.3
  72 01/05 06Z   41     34     333       7    0.00  0.00    544    556    4.2 -20.6 1015.6 100          CLR    135OVC222 222BKN262   46     41 20.0
  78 01/05 12Z   35     30     332       5    0.00  0.00    543    556    2.6 -20.2 1016.2  53          CLR    132BKN205 222FEW273   41     35 14.9
  84 01/05 18Z   46     34     305       5    0.00  0.00    543    555    0.6 -20.5 1015.4  59       036FEW048 201FEW219 228BKN324   47     34 20.0
  90 01/06 00Z   36     28     317       8    0.00  0.00    538    552   -2.7 -21.4 1017.0  84       067FEW085 141BKN221 222BKN289   47     36 20.0
  96 01/06 06Z   28     22     324      10    0.00  0.00    536    552   -6.4 -22.2 1020.8  30       041FEW062 144SCT214    CLR      36     28 15.6
 102 01/06 12Z   23      9     335       6    0.00  0.00    537    557   -3.6 -20.1 1024.7   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      27     23 20.0
 108 01/06 18Z   38      3      25       5    0.00  0.00    541    561   -0.9 -18.7 1024.4   6          CLR       CLR       FEW      39     23 20.0
 114 01/07 00Z   35     15     113       4    0.00  0.00    543    564   -1.0 -17.6 1025.5  81          CLR    134BKN224 234BKN357   41     35 20.0
 120 01/07 06Z   31     18     107       7    0.00  0.00    544    564   -1.2 -17.3 1026.4  93       088SCT105 154FEW180 232BKN372   36     31 20.0
 126 01/07 12Z   26     25      78      12    0.25  0.00    545    563   -0.2 -16.5 1024.6 100 -SN   058BKN100 120BKN204 231OVC375   32     26  0.5
 132 01/07 18Z   28     28      60       8    0.87  0.00    544    561    0.7 -17.2 1021.9 100 PL    012OVC076 114OVC215 237BKN376   30     25  0.0
 138 01/08 00Z   29     29     357       6    0.11  0.00    537    556   -2.3 -18.0 1024.3  97 -SN   022BKN095 109SCT139    CLR      30     28  0.0

[mackerel_sky]

9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I still think temperatures will be an issue with this.  I'm not buying the cold air extent that the models are currently showing.  RDU will be a rain/snow mix or snow at the onset before turning to rain.

Sweet Jesus, we get it! Torch, sun angle, hot ground, steaming, you started this crap the other day and people showed you the ground temps for Saturday, being at low 40s...

[PackGrad05]

Thanks.  Is there a link to the models showing ground temperatures?  I'd like to see them again.  

And I'm mainly talking about the Thurs/Fri event.  Cold chasing moisture with warm soil temps.

[SnowNiner]

2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Good morning everybody!

 

Holly molly, that's beautiful. What the heck...ok, I'm pulled back in....the Euro improved and GFS if more hits than not, and the cmc kinda sorta agrees. We may actually have a slight chance. 

[ajr]

6z GEFS ensembles look promising (edit: fixed)

 

[QC_Halo]

Fritschy,

Do you really not understand why they are being conservative? You've been here long enough to know that this "threat" could be a complete non-event. 

 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, Cheeznado said:

About half of the EPS and half of the GEFS members have more than just a dusting of snow here in the ATL area. This has been pretty consistent for many runs now. So no real clarity yet with this setup- we will not get a better handle for at least 3 more days IMO. Getting all depressed or excited about individual Op runs is a waste of time and energy.

The pattern I don't feel really favors a snow event or really even a massive FZRA/PL event there.  The NAO is just not negative enough or the block is not far enough west/south.  With correct timing though, this could be a big event down into cntrl GA or AL.  This is not like 09-10 or 10-11 though where you knew 5 days out if the event happened it was going to hit places south of 35N for sure.

[mackerel_sky]

Good ole JB! His thoughts on the GFS run last night and this morning: 

"garbage in , garbage out!" Must not be giving a foot or two , to the Northeast!

[packfan98]

FWIW, The DGEX crushes the MA with over 2 feet.

[downeastnc]

6Z GFS was fun, and temps dont go above freezing in the hardest hit areas until Wed after the storm to boot, with lows in the single digits and even a few below zero chances NW NC etc......

[strongwxnc]

17 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

FWIW, The DGEX crushes the MA with over 2 feet.

[Lookout]

1 hour ago, Wow said:

This is my ideal track for MBY.  Thank you 6z GFS.  I'm sure if this setup is as depicted, HP would trend stronger over the NE.  Always does.

really is for north georgia too. 850s are such that it's mostly snow with maybe  a brief  period of heavy sleet before going back to snow or if it's heavy enough/enough dynamical cooling it remains ALL snow for atlanta/athens...with an all snow sounding through hour 129 and only a brief period at hour 132 with 850mb temp of around 1 to 1.5c and near or subfreezing above and below. So freezing rain would not be an issue on the 06z for atlanta/athens really for those seeing all that pink. 

edit to add...actually looking closer...at least the northern burbs of atlanta would stay all snow with only the south side maybe seeing a period of sleet. higher chances for sleet, ironically, are to the east where 800 to 850mb temps are only very slightly warmer centered around 132 and only for a couple of hours...but it's certainly nothing that couldn't be overcome at face value with good precip rates.  It would end up being a huge icestorm though for central ga...macon, augusta, etc. Details like this are irrelevant at this range but it's fun to imagine the possibilities and dissect the soundings. 

[griteater]

2 hours ago, AshevilleCityWx said:

It's worst case scenario. Rare...once a year setup in favorable years when we are talking below zero in the Piedmont. Climo tells me it will not only be warmer...but the warm nose will likely reach as far north as the Virginia border when all is said and done. I believe the most ice would likely be somewhere north of Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh...defiantly not southward!

The 06z was an excellent run for the Greenville to Charlotte to Raleigh corridor and NW for snow, with the 850mb low tracking on an ideal west to east track from Birmingham to Wilmington, keeping the warm nose in check.  If you go back to yesterday, the 18z GFS Para run was like this as well.  However, the 00z Para run yields the result you mention, it's a whopper of a storm with big totals in DC, heavy snow in NC mtns, but would changeover there to sleet

The 06z Para just coming in is another good run for GSP to RDU for snow, but it's cutting it close

[Jonathan]

1 minute ago, packfan98 said:

Strongwxnc, it looks like you posted the DGEX from December 21st.  Here's the new one:

This says valid 21 DEC 2016

[griteater]

06z Para

[Wow]

12z NAM still trending the s/w east which is good.

[Wow]

1 minute ago, griteater said:

06z Para

That's a solid hit ala 6z operational.  Got the high nosing in over the NE which i'd expect to see.

[griteater]

9 minutes ago, Lookout said:

really is for north georgia too. 850s are such that it's mostly snow with maybe  a brief  period of heavy sleet before going back to snow or if it's heavy enough/enough dynamical cooling it remains ALL snow for atlanta/athens...with an all snow sounding through hour 129 and only a brief period at hour 132 with 850mb temp of around 1 to 1.5c and near or subfreezing above and below. So freezing rain would not be an issue on the 06z for atlanta/athens really for those seeing all that pink. 

Some of these latest GFS and GFS Para runs are ideal, what we've been looking for in terms of the timing of the northern stream clearing, then the Pac wave following right behind...that puts the good damming signature in place out front....then you have the amped GFS runs that pull everything north, much warmer than ideal

[strongwxnc]

4 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

This says valid 21 DEC 2016

Strange. When I add the image it is the correct time stamp until it is saved. 

 

[franklin NCwx]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

06z Para

I thought we came into better agreement with the 0z and 6z runs. There is still some spread but confidence is growing for an event this weekend.  I'm leaning starting to lean away from a system that cuts too far north.

[DopplerWx]

6z para GFS near identical to 6z op. 1-2" thurs then a big dog Saturday. Good to see them mirror eachother.

edit: sorry, just saw it come out and didn't see the maps posted.