TalcottWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 If this was 2011 and I was still at Bridgton Academy I'd wet my pants in excitement right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Sweet....looks like a little leeway on that map. Lots of wiggle room back to LEB. Don't get greedy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just now, dendrite said: Sweet....looks like a little leeway on that map. Lots of wiggle room back to LEB. Yes, seems to have been pretty consistent with a nice accumulation all the way back to here too. I don't need to be the jackpot but at least want be part of the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 The big uncertainty zone definitely seems to be that 128 belt down to N RI and to NE CT....that's an area that could have a massive bust in the positive direction. One of those things where you aren't sure whether to forecast 2-4" or 6-10"....and it's even plausible they end up with 12". Still plenty of time to figure it out, but that is the area that really sucks to forecast for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 10 minutes ago, 512high said: Scott, early am NWS Gray Maine, had my city, 8-10", still possible, more/less and do temps rapidly plummet at the tail end or gradual? 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Reasonable first guess. Temps will probably start around 33-34 then drop to 31-32 at height before dropping to 20s right at the end I would guess. Dude we are literally right on the line. I think as an initial forecast of 10" that GYX has is reasonable. But we could reasonably see 4" or 18" (taking the Euro's qpf verbatim) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: Dude we are literally right on the line. I think as an initial forecast of 10" that GYX has is reasonable. But we could reasonably see 4" or 18" (taking the Euro's qpf verbatim) I think ASH will end up fine...and be all snow. I'd be more annoyed forecasting for Ray's area down 128 to SFZ or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The big uncertainty zone definitely seems to be that 128 belt down to N RI and to NE CT....that's an area that could have a massive bust in the positive direction. One of those things where you aren't sure whether to forecast 2-4" or 6-10"....and it's even plausible they end up with 12". Still plenty of time to figure it out, but that is the area that really sucks to forecast for right now. yeah, all data is telling me 2-4" but it's very close to much more.. wonder if Ray will change his mind about checking out till next year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Wow do I get blitz on the Euro run. Bombing low and cutting negative into Portsmouth NH. General 15-20" for much of NH. This is all going to fall in a short time period with high wind. Making up for all those Boston blizzards I missed. Still solid snowcover up here. Even with today's torch. Love days like this when have something big to look forward to. What a difficult forecast for Metro Boston regarding snow! With the crazy rates that precip will be falling a change of a degree or two can make a huge difference in accumulations.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The big uncertainty zone definitely seems to be that 128 belt down to N RI and to NE CT....that's an area that could have a massive bust in the positive direction. One of those things where you aren't sure whether to forecast 2-4" or 6-10"....and it's even plausible they end up with 12". Still plenty of time to figure it out, but that is the area that really sucks to forecast for right now. Riding the line beteeen crushed and just a solid snowfall . Does elevation help or does that not matter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Yeah the euro isn't going to get it done down here. Looks like a line north of PVD to BOS southeast is toast. We needed big changes and we just aren't getting them.... maybe we end as some sloppy wet flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I think ASH will end up fine...and be all snow. I'd be more annoyed forecasting for Ray's area down 128 to SFZ or so. Yep, luckily no terminals there..lol. KORH should be fun for our group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 How are we looking for winds with a bombing low like that? Would Blizzard Warnings be issued away from the coast? I would think so? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The big uncertainty zone definitely seems to be that 128 belt down to N RI and to NE CT....that's an area that could have a massive bust in the positive direction. One of those things where you aren't sure whether to forecast 2-4" or 6-10"....and it's even plausible they end up with 12". Still plenty of time to figure it out, but that is the area that really sucks to forecast for right now. I'm a late arriver. Twitter lit up during the 12z Euro. This have any hope at BOS? Seems like no bueno from what I'm seeing on wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Riding the line beteeen crushed and just a solid snowfall . Does elevation help or does that not matter ? Elevation will help some simply because the snow will be slightly less wet with elevation...but the biggest issue is like a 925mb warm tongue and where it decides that 34F rain will happen for a time. I've found that these can be overestimated sometimes...esp in a bombing storm to our southeast which will very quickly blunt the northward progress....but we will see. I feel that any BL warmth will be quickly blunted NW of 495 and maybe down to your area...though you are closer to the source, so it could be dicey for a time. Hope for a compact nuke scenario...kind of more like the NAM...which is totally possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 BOS could get sloppy flakes, or a 2-3hr paste bomb like the NAM has. Just too early to tell. I mean literally 10 miles could mean slop or power outage 6" paste. I'm serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: I'm a late arriver. Twitter lit up during the 12z Euro. This have any hope at BOS? Seems like no bueno from what I'm seeing on wxbell. BOS could def be interesting during the final 4-6 hours...the Euro solution verbatim isn't quite enough for them, but it's not far off some a quick 6"+ at the end too. That's something that will prob have to be figured out in the final 24 hours....128 N&W def has the better potential though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think ASH will end up fine...and be all snow. I'd be more annoyed forecasting for Ray's area down 128 to SFZ or so. Right. I'm expecting this to start as some 33 degree mashed potatoes but as the low cranks we drop a couple degrees and really pile it up for the 6-9 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Elevation will help some simply because the snow will be slightly less wet with elevation...but the biggest issue is like a 925mb warm tongue and where it decides that 34F rain will happen for a time. I've found that these can be overestimated sometimes...esp in a bombing storm to our southeast which will very quickly blunt the northward progress....but we will see. I feel that any BL warmth will be quickly blunted NW of 495 and maybe down to your area...though you are closer to the source, so it could be dicey for a time. Hope for a compact nuke scenario...kind of more like the NAM...which is totally possible. I'd like to see the NAM bump a bit west though if this area is to really crush . Hopefully the ENS are still a tic east of op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 If you slam 70+ micros/s in the DGZ, it will laugh at 1C 925mb temps. That's the NE CT to ray wild card Will mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Do you guys think the precip shield can expand west? Euro doesn't show much for the Catskills ir Poconos. People were talking about 8-10" in Ulster/Sullivan Counties but the 12z EC shows half that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 hmmm this has been ticking better for west of 91 now lets get a quicker bomb and we all play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Rule #1 of Miller B's, There's always a subsidence screw zone between the dying primary and developing secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: If you slam 70+ micros/s in the DGZ, it will laugh at 1C 925mb temps. That's the NE CT to ray wild card Will mentioned. Yes...also we have to consider in the "super bombing scenario" where we lose 14mb in like 6 hours, the models are not going to resolve the temp gradients well at all. They are gonna be razor tight. Where the model may have like +2 at 925 over KPVD and +1 over SFZ, -1C over ORH and -3C over AFN be in reality be like +3C over PVD and -1C over SFZ and -3C over ORH....much more packed than the guidance shows....and good luck to modeling the temp right at 925mb when you are losing like 20 meters an hour in the height column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: hmmm this has been ticking better for west of 91 now we can get a quicker bomb and we all play. Eh I actually think it is a bit of east of where it was. Here is yesterday's Euro snowmap: On yesterday's run, the 6" line was well west of the Hudson River, even as far west as Delaware County. Today's 12z has the 6" line near the NY/Mass border, not even extending to the Taconic Pkway. You still do well, but one more tick east and what happened to Delaware County happens to you: snowfall totals drop from 6-12 to more of a 3-6 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 16 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Dude we are literally right on the line. I think as an initial forecast of 10" that GYX has is reasonable. But we could reasonably see 4" or 18" (taking the Euro's qpf verbatim) Chris, safe to say 8-12" for snow removal operations? at THIS TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes...also we have to consider in the "super bombing scenario" where we lose 14mb in like 6 hours, the models are not going to resolve the temp gradients well at all. They are gonna be razor tight. Where the model may have like +2 at 925 over KPVD and +1 over SFZ, -1C over ORH and -3C over AFN be in reality be like +3C over PVD and -1C over SFZ and -3C over ORH....much more packed than the guidance shows....and good luck to modeling the temp right at 925mb when you are losing like 20 meters an hour in the height column. You could see that on the NAM. That's were 10 miles of longitude means everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: BOS could def be interesting during the final 4-6 hours...the Euro solution verbatim isn't quite enough for them, but it's not far off some a quick 6"+ at the end too. That's something that will prob have to be figured out in the final 24 hours....128 N&W def has the better potential though. There is nothing worse than snow to rain. Rain to heavy snow might be the most exhilarating feeling in winter. Miserable to a child on Christmas getting a puppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The H7 low would argue some more snow even a bit N and W of that map too. If the euro was right. I do like that mid-level track...colder out here but that's a sweet mid-level banding track for VT. One of those where we are on the QPF gradient but all the sudden pop a band that pivots somewhere in VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Rule #1 of Miller B's, There's always a subsidence screw zone between the dying primary and developing secondary. Good reminder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'd like to see the NAM bump a bit west though if this area is to really crush . Hopefully the ENS are still a tic east of op Doesn't a bump West bring the warmer 850s to more of ct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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