USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 60-65-knot winds below the 900mb inversion level with southwesterly winds on the backside of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I wouldn't sweat NAM details at this time anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Not yet, And maybe not at all, We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Super Bomb, just wait for the visible satellite images of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, db306 said: Looking a NAM map just seems like CT is a little bit late to the show. It's a beast for eastern 2/3 of CT on east. Don't go by snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Thinking a real nice high end advy for the valley on WAA snows but once things really get cranking we're huffing subsidence as the ORH hills go to town. The euro totals look a bit overly smooth IMO. Leaning toward a more bandy presentation, given the extreme dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It's a beast for eastern 2/3 of CT on east. Don't go by snowmap 2/3 of CT means all but about 20 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 20 miles west of the jackpot here, but I'll take my chances with 970 just east of Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: It develops to late for there for the heaviest precip, Still decent though seeing a day or so ago there was nothing for the majority Agree.....I'm good with 4-5 inches. Definitely looks like a very nice hit for eastern MA up the coast. Keeping fingers crossed for things to get cranking a bit sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Ginxy fav.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That is a very unstable soundings from H7-H5ish. Unstable with -30+ ub/s through the DGZ. Thats a fun run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 NWS thinks Cape Cod could see 2" out of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It's a beast for eastern 2/3 of CT on east. Don't go by snowmap Not solely going by snow map but looking at the big picture. Again it seems like the bottom drops out of this a bit to late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Mmm.. 12z raises eyebrows --> 18z somewhat less so ...but still interesting --> 00z re-raises eyebrows to even higher arcs --> 06z just back down enough we pretend it wasn't annoying... --> 12z ...back to arcing eyebrows, but even more so.. There's a definitive pattern there in my estimation to imply more impact every other run. I'm wondering if that's a data density in the initialization issue. Also, I know the 06 and 18 z runs used to employ the 00z and 12z run, hour 6 and 12 derivatives (respectively) to fill voids. Not sure that's even done that way anymore, but ... seeing as there a kind o yo-yo going on as listed above, I wonder if the field is merely perturb weaker on the 2s. hm. Welp... this is probably one of very few ways to get the job done in an otherwise cyclone-challenged, uber compressed, surplussed gradient maelstrom of a regime ... such that we've suffered for over a month now... We had one snow event that was completely idiosyncratic timing dumb f luck really, now this...? Relative to this flow/acceptance, things can (obviously - duh) be a lot worse; we could easily have not had the dumb f luck thing, then this waits to bomb higher up in latitude. Hopefully it works out.. 'Course, we did say all along that nickle and dimer QPF events were favored over bigger organized cyclones ..so ...hindsight is 20/20 and there you go. This is not a "big" cyclone -... this kind of reminds me (from a physical point of view alone) of Dec 2005. No anolog or pour at best, but..there is one facet to this thing that fits; it's the fact that tonight and tomorrow we lay down a fresh polar air mass that is non-modulated and thus has the potential to have a very sharp llv frontal wall as it sets its axis up SW-NE along or just offshore the MA/NE coasts. Then, you run a 110 to 120+ kt jet max over the top? ... boom. Everything else is kind of unique in that it's a 'non hydrostatic' sort of cyclonic forcing do to mesoscale parameters being sort of exotic. The thermal compression is going be immense, which tips/angles the flow as it pours N very upright as it crosses an unusually tilted elevated frontal slope. The small circulation area of a pressure coring into the 970's is a smoking gun for unusually intense UVM passing overhead. It some philosophical sense ...may as well be a mesocyclone Nice, and just in time... It's like the party is nearly full and we're standing next in the line, then the usher allows just us in before telling everyone to go away.... Ironic metaphor perhaps in that NYC can't come in.. ha. By the way... this looks like a slam dunk for those brilliant white vap-vap flashes bursting through the windows ... "Hey, was that - " ...kerboom. yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 6 minutes ago, db306 said: Agree.....I'm good with 4-5 inches. Definitely looks like a very nice hit for eastern MA up the coast. Keeping fingers crossed for things to get cranking a bit sooner Where are you in CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 The 4KM NAM looks even more impressive, but it's only out to hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Where are you in CT? Northern Middlesex County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Wx2fish tipped me off to this, look at nrn RI. 75 micros in the DGZ. That is beyond LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The 4KM NAM looks even more impressive, but it's only out to hr 60. Scott is euro leading and nam catching up? or is one model going to lead the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 For ****s and giggled the 4km NAM is S & E of the 12km thru 60hr by a good 50mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just now, 512high said: Scott is euro leading and nam catching up? or is one model going to lead the way? They both have the same idea, NAM is just more compact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Looks like I will miss what will be the biggest snowfall of the winter at home as I am away through New Years. I am taking one for the team.Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: For ****s and giggled the 4km NAM is S & E of the 12km thru 60hr by a good 50mi. That would not hurt my feelings at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, 512high said: Scott is euro leading and nam catching up? or is one model going to lead the way? Graphic for your reference. Here, the Euro is out front, but see how it makes tiny fluctuations? There's still time for adjustments at this range. The RGM is on two legs (not in range yet), the CMC is the gorilla, the GFS is the white horse directly behind the Euro (its ensemble members are battling on its back), and the JMA is the walrus at the back with NAM right next to it. I know we're not supposed to post weatherbell stuff but I hope this helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, Zeus said: Graphic for your reference. Here, the Euro is out front, but see how it makes tiny fluctuations? There's still time for adjustments at this range. The RGM is on two legs (not in range yet), the CMC is the gorilla, the GFS is the white horse directly behind the Euro (its ensemble members are battling on its back), and the JMA is the walrus at the back with NAM right next to it. I know we're not supposed to post weatherbell stuff but I hope this helps. This could be the best post ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I'm ready for tracking yellow pixels as they slide to my east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 nice, happy for the east zones...they have gotten the shaft in recent big systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said: I'm ready for tracking yellow pixels as they slide to my east. I'll be up so hopefully some yellow pixels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They both have the same idea, 6 minutes ago, Zeus said: Graphic for your reference. Here, the Euro is out front, but see how it makes tiny fluctuations? There's still time for adjustments at this range. The RGM is on two legs (not in range yet), the CMC is the gorilla, the GFS is the white horse directly behind the Euro (its ensemble members are battling on its back), and the JMA is the walrus at the back with NAM right next to it. I know we're not supposed to post weatherbell stuff but I hope this helps. NAM is just more compact. lmao! understood, you said it in a great way ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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