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Thursday Thumper or Thirst-Quencher

moneypitmike

By moneypitmike,
in New England

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Doesn't a bump West bring the warmer 850s to more of ct?

Yea but he lives in extreme northern CT where 850s are very unlikely to go above 0C. The boundary layer could be a problem for coastal CT, however, as there is a period of SE winds before the storm and the antecedent airmass is far from ideal. It's going to be in the 40s tomorrow in most places. So a western shift would be bad for the coast since the BL would warm more.

However, the 12z ECM actually moved east, at least compared to yesterday"s 12z. 

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Stash

Stash

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I think that area is W of HFD over into the area N of NYC up towards ALY.

Yep, we've seen this routine quite a bit the past several years here.  A storm with this track would usually be great for WNE into ENY.  Slightly earlier development would make a world of difference in far Western areas of New England.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Stash said:

Yep, we've seen this routine quite a bit the past several years here.  A storm with this track would usually be great for WNE into ENY.  Slightly earlier development would make a world of difference in far Western areas of New England.

The compact nature of this storm isn't helping you either...it tracks over the Cape Cod Canal to just east of BOS, but it has very compact mid-level centers that are rapidly deepening, so it doesn't have the same precip shield that a more typical storm with that mid-level track would have.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The stinger CCB looks more impressive than 00z. I hate to bring up the analog, but it really does look a lot like 12/9/05 at the end.

why ...? i mentioned that system, too - 

i think there's huge value in referencing that - as I mentioned earlier, there are physical markers that validate comparison of the two.  the overall "look" of the pattern may be different, but central to the system its self - 

this thing most certainly could trigger a tropospheric fold given to that upper tier intesity uvm core ... and as the iss. burst comes in from that pressure collapse then rise, macro-scale mixing in the back side ... 

i dunno - that looks like a it be sting jet event if the cards play right.  

thing is, you can't really predict that.. I've seen papers about that sort of thing, ...and their wrought with unintelligible mathematical garble by tall foreheads that can't simply say that dry air gulped down ward from the tropopause cause downbursting... but, times when i hear the phenomenon discussed in afds and so forth, it doesn't happen.  yet, we know it does - alla 110mph gusts on the Lower Cape in 2005.  so - 

i just think the best thing is to recognize scenarios from the past that may have done this or that.  the Wreck of the Edmont Fitzpartic's in 1974 i think that was a stinger over Lake superior..   they are always backside where the CCB terminates to flurries and the west wind funnels in...  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

why ...? i mentioned that system, too - 

i think there's huge value in referencing that - as I mentioned earlier, there are physical markers that validate comparison of the two.  the overall "look" of the pattern may be different, but central to the system its self - 

this thing most certainly could trigger a tropospheric fold given to that upper tier intesity uvm core ... and as the iss. burst comes in from that pressure collapse then rise, macro-scale mixing in the back side ... 

i dunno - that looks like a it be sting jet event if the cards play right.  

thing is, you can't really predict that.. I've seen papers about that sort of thing, ...and their wrought with unintelligible mathematical garble by tall foreheads that can't simply say that dry air gulped down ward from the tropopause cause downbursting... but, times when i hear the phenomenon discussed in afds and so forth, it doesn't happen.  yet, we know it does - alla 110mph gusts on the Lower Cape in 2005.  so - 

i just think the best thing is to recognize scenarios from the past that may have done this or that.  the Wreck of the Edmont Fitzpartic's in 1974 i think that was a stinger over Lake superior..   they are always backside where the CCB terminates to flurries and the west wind funnels in...  

I mostly hate to bring up the analog because then many people start expecting the same exact result...when that isn't what the intention is. At least not this early in the game.

 

I agree with everything you say though...there's no doubt that the dynamics are in place for the potential of a 12/9/05 type trop fold/insane stinger CCB/height vacuum. Whether we reach that type of apex in this storm obviously remains to be seen. We know a number of variables can "go wrong" so that a less dynamic scenario plays out.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

BTV fires out the first Winter Storm Watches in New England. 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
207 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2016

VTZ003-004-006>008-010>012-016>019-281000-
/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0004.161229T1500Z-161231T0000Z/
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEWPORT, ISLAND POND, JOHNSON, STOWE,
ST. JOHNSBURY, MONTPELIER, BRADFORD, RANDOLPH, RUTLAND,
SPRINGFIELD, WHITE RIVER JUNCTION, ENOSBURG FALLS, RICHFORD,
UNDERHILL, BRISTOL, RIPTON, EAST WALLINGFORD, AND KILLINGTON
207 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE WESTERN
  SLOPES AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY THURSDAY
  NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND BECOMING BRIEFLY
  HEAVY AT TIMES ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING
  OFF BY FRIDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED AND
  SLIPPERY ROADS, ALONG WITH POOR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
  THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTES.

* WINDS...SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...BECOMING
  NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS AROUND 30 THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S
  FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES.
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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

BTV fires out the first Winter Storm Watches in New England. 


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
207 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2016

VTZ003-004-006>008-010>012-016>019-281000-
/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0004.161229T1500Z-161231T0000Z/
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEWPORT, ISLAND POND, JOHNSON, STOWE,
ST. JOHNSBURY, MONTPELIER, BRADFORD, RANDOLPH, RUTLAND,
SPRINGFIELD, WHITE RIVER JUNCTION, ENOSBURG FALLS, RICHFORD,
UNDERHILL, BRISTOL, RIPTON, EAST WALLINGFORD, AND KILLINGTON
207 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE WESTERN
  SLOPES AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY THURSDAY
  NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND BECOMING BRIEFLY
  HEAVY AT TIMES ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING
  OFF BY FRIDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED AND
  SLIPPERY ROADS, ALONG WITH POOR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
  THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTES.

* WINDS...SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...BECOMING
  NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS AROUND 30 THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S
  FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES.

I think we will see more shots fired in these afternoon AFD's

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Posted
Posted

I'm really worried about the backside CCB snow/wind factor for Cape and Islands.

 

I think Blizzard Watches should be issued from NE MA to Downeast ME.

 

Hurricane Force wind warnings should be issued for the coastal waters around Cape Cod Bay into Gulf of ME.

 

Then storm force watches for the inner coastal waters.

 

With a 130-knot 500mb upper level jet, from the southwest, inducing surface cyclogenesis underneath front of upper level divergence pattern suggests rapid intensification of surface low near SNE coastline.  This could seriously bring severe wind gusts to coastal SNE and ME.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mostly hate to bring up the analog because then many people start expecting the same exact result...when that isn't what the intention is. At least not this early in the game.

 

I agree with everything you say though...there's no doubt that the dynamics are in place for the potential of a 12/9/05 type trop fold/insane stinger CCB/height vacuum. Whether we reach that type of apex in this storm obviously remains to be seen. We know a number of variables can "go wrong" so that a less dynamic scenario plays out.

Oh, right - haha!  zactly ...

but, yeah, the purpose is recognition of certain parameters for application now - only. 

I'm really getting into the multi-faceted nature of this micro-beast.   We can straight up heavy snow ... to heavy snow and high wind ... to either's impact on the grid (considering that we may be talking sideways moving whiteout paste!) ... to dynamical/CAA backside sudden cold flashing to the coast ... to just wind along if all that sting jet potential somehow finds a way to occur... all of which is compacted into a region from the Berks to coast, and done in like 9 hours tops. 

pretty f awesome for weather fans! 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

TIP, has Cape Cod Bay ever seen a Hurricane Wind Warning?

off the top of my head.... i don't know. 

it's a label though, just a label.  Hurricane warning with no hurricane is probably a hurricane wind warning - it just means winds of a certain dystopian scare.  To that, absolutely; Cape Cod Bay has experience winds of that caliber.  Whether it came with a "hurricane wind warning" ... I wouldn't know. 

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