moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 Here's theirs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Seems like the envelope of solutions is narrowing.... doesn't look good here. BOS PVD and SE of there look mostly wet. Maybe some places can grab an inch at the end... but it's possible it's just wet flakes... if anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Seems like the envelope of solutions is narrowing.... doesn't look good here. BOS PVD and SE of there look mostly wet. Maybe some places can grab an inch at the end... but it's possible it's just wet flakes... if anything It's an interior deal mostly I think. Maybe if the 3k nam is right you'll get a few inches in 1 hr lol. I'd still watch it. Gotta pay the piper sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Here's theirs: Cool, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's an interior deal mostly I think. Maybe if the 3k nam is right you'll get a few inches in 1 hr lol. I'd still watch it. Gotta pay the piper sometimes. Yeah..... I was mildly intrigued with the trends but it looks like too many things stacked against this area getting in on the action. Ill definitely keep an eye out... because there is a shot we flip at the very end and could grab some minor accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 sometimes these things precipitate hardest prior to reaching their greatest depth... All the latent heat flux from lift/release adding lift means fall rates are high...then the pressure bottoms out a tad later. it's interesting to me that most guidance has this maxing near Portland Maine at around 970 to 975 depending... then it's actually filling some there after. It's like it gets a huge initial boost then from QPF mechanics as it's passing Boston's latitude - i dunno. I think the models are going to be headachy for awhile. there's likely to be all kind of meso nuances f this thing up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I'm really interested in how the dynamics can manufacture cold for interior areas in SNE to get a major snowstorm. I think it happen with ease outside 495 but the X factor is 128. I'm 2/3 of the way to 128 from the ocean-should be interesting and I do have 200 feet elevation whIch makes a small difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: I'm really interested in how the dynamics can manufacture cold for interior areas in SNE to get a major snowstorm. I think it happen with ease outside 495 but the X factor is 128. I'm 2/3 of the way to 128 from the ocean-should be interesting and I do have 200 feet elevation whIch makes a small difference Yep....128 belt is the hardest forecast right now. There's still time though. We won't get to the 24h mark until tomorrow's 18z runs really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: I'm really interested in how the dynamics can manufacture cold for interior areas in SNE to get a major snowstorm. I think it happen with ease outside 495 but the X factor is 128. I'm 2/3 of the way to 128 from the ocean-should be interesting and I do have 200 feet elevation whIch makes a small difference Yeah that's the thing. We aren't really drawing colder air in until after it ends. It's always tough to depend on dynamics to get snow. It can happen though as the weenie solutions show. That's why NE CT to Ray are tough to forecast. It really depends on intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 31 minutes ago, bobbutts said: very bullish from GYX Oddly the most likely map is updated with a range instead of a single number now too i approve this graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 27 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: THey're covered by Caribou. CAR office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm a little surprised they are that bullish more than 48h out...I mean, I can totally see those numbers verifying, but if this thing pops just a little late, then a lot of those could be significantly too high as well. That said, they label it as "most likely"...and the sooner pop of the low is probably "most likely"...so in that sense, I can't really fault the graph. But it could create some confusion if that is taken as a face value forecast. Oh, I'm going to lock this in, so I can piss and moan about it when it doesn't verify. You've been warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Oh, I'm going to lock this in, so I can piss and moan about it when it doesn't verify. You've been warned. And they changed all those maps again since you posted them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 It's kind of funny that the 'most likely' snow map that gets put out on the heels of the 4-8" watch has 9's and a 10 on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 GFS still a late bloomer. Really doesn't get going until Maine. Pretty good near term battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I wouldn't get to wrapped up in any snow map for another two or 3 cycles because they will flip flop around from office to office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS still a late bloomer. Really doesn't get going until Maine. Pretty good near term battle. Yup--lots of warmth in that. But man does it pummel Jackson, Fryeburg/Bridgeton/Wateford/Bethel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 GFS says....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2016 Author Share Posted December 27, 2016 I would chuckle if this thread amounted to this in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 GFS gets going really late..... sensible weather is a lot different than the Euro. ORH is one of the biggest differences between the two models.... GFS is really meh as it gets going to late... while the euro goes to town in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I would chuckle if this thread amounted to this in SNE. I'm glad they added a 50-100" range on the "at least" map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: I would chuckle if this thread amounted to this in SNE. It's definitely plausible. We are talking a matter of a few hours as the difference between meh and a big event. I wouldn't be locking in big numbers outside of NH and Maine right now. If this develops a few hours later.... most of ma ct, etc... get very little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: GFS says....... what stark differences between models. One says I get 12-15", this one says 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: what stark differences between models. One says I get 12-15", this one says 2". If the GFS is right, You would get more from the clipper New Years Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm glad they added a 50-100" range on the "at least" map. lol good catch. That's a hilarious scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I would chuckle if this thread amounted to this in SNE. It would keep me you and Lurker in the top spots for SNE weenies. (Mitch too) Blending GFS, Euro and NAM would certainly make that map look quite stingy though. I've been riding the 6-8" train for out here since yesterday. Anything more is gravy but this storm is moving quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 These gradients are soo narrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 GFS is definitely the outlier right now (well if you throw in the GGEM too)...my inclination is to lean away from that until there is a good reason not to. (i.e. the entire 00z suite comes in looking closer to the GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 29 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: It's kind of funny that the 'most likely' snow map that gets put out on the heels of the 4-8" watch has 9's and a 10 on it. Gradient over my head. I'm in Westford and 495 is visible from my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Well I hope for the boards sake that the euro doesn't blow a head gasket in turn 4. It's gone through a few engines this season. I'm getting excited for wind potential here. I need this thing to nuke. If I'm not getting snow might as well have something to entertain me...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.