MarkO Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Your elevation will do you well for better accumulations but even here I'm expecting full on plastering with power out. I'm anticipating our accumulations will be pretty much the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Exactly my thoughts. You'll probably go from meh to absolutely paste job in a few miles. Given the strength of the low, the coastal front should be tight.How much taint you think we get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 6 minutes ago, MarkO said: Well he puts my TWC spot to shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 35 minutes ago, powderfreak said: MPM, its December man, haha. Every post seems to say its an "interior winter" or a "NNE winter" or a "non-coastal New England" winter. Its December. Lets keep the blanket statements at this juncture to a minimum. Its one storm. In December. Lol. Ball has been dropped before the runner crossed the plane.Recovered by the defense, and were going the other way. Tons of time to finish below normal lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 looking at the mid level low track i think the 18" amounts should easily make it to PF. i also think dry slotting might be an issue for dendrite/eek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: How much taint you think we get? My gut says that you'll probably be disappointed, with what falls just to your NW. It's going to be real close though. Your elevation may help you big time early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: looking at the mid level low track i think the 18" amounts should easily make it to PF. i also think dry slotting might be an issue for dendrite/eek It's a good point. All the angst about rain my just turn into a dry slot anyway. Doesn't help the snow totals, but maybe won't destroy what pack there is around this part of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's a good point. All the angst about rain my just turn into a dry slot anyway. Doesn't help the snow totals, but maybe won't destroy what pack there is around this part of Maine. I know you don't look much down this way, but would you go 0 for CT? Or could NAM 3,4 be on right path? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Yeah probably Valentines Day 2014...that one ripped 18" in eastern VT too but I think was pretty meh here comparatively (maybe 8-10"?)....we did real well in the March storm that year with like 15" on 1.5" of QPF. That storm had poor snow growth but was ripping 0.1"+ liquid in the bucket for like 8 hours straight. None of us northwest of Dendrite had anything big synoptically in 14-15 and again in 15-16 obviously. Ws Vulcan 3/12/14. Around 18" iirc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 It's gonna take a more rapid explosive development with some type of enhanced banding over N CT otherwise I'm thinking it's a 1-2 deal with some perhaps a spot 3 in the highest elevations . It's at least worth watching, these dynamic type systems tend to surprise and can be somewhat of a nowcast but there's pretty good consensus that we'll be a day late and a dollar short down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My folks are there and I said the same. Could get ugly. That's the real fun zone from a wx ween perspective. The caking 7:1 aggregates with 0.1-0.2" in the tipper each hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I know you don't look much down this way, but would you go 0 for CT? Or could NAM 3,4 be on right path? I mean zero, maybe not, but probably not much more than that. Your elevation and an evolution like the Euro may be enough to see you whiten the ground before the changeover. But unless you can get those wet bulb zero heights much shallower, it's not looking pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I mean zero, maybe not, but probably not much more than that. Your elevation and an evolution like the Euro may be enough to see you whiten the ground before the changeover. But unless you can get those wet bulb zero heights much shallower, it's not looking pretty. Only hope is a quicker and earlier bombing like NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 35 minutes ago, mreaves said: It wasn't that long ago that you wanted dry and 40's. I'll take 2-4 on NYE though. Either way the booze will be flowing readily. As for this storm I'll set the over/under for BDL at 1". Who's taking the over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 17 minutes ago, Hitman said: Ws Vulcan 3/12/14. Around 18" iirc MRG opened 3/13 with a high of about 0 and blowing 30mph... Bottomless in drifts.... Mt Ellen closed Friday but reopened Saturday to wind slab powder and sunny skies. Just a brilliant couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 my guess for the crush zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, forkyfork said: my guess for the crush zone Your further west than most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Only hope is a quicker and earlier bombing like NAM. It is definitely earlier and deeper than the RGEM. It's not far from the GFS timing and location initially, but the GFS is definitely on a more inland track and is pretty torched for you at onset. And the Euro is definitely the leader of the colder/eastern envelope. Closing H7 off over LWM instead of Dendrite makes a world of difference to a lot of posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Your further west than most Based on the mid levels, that's the zone. Unless the Euro mid levels is more correct, in which case that probably would be shifted east. You'll have some low level forcing east of that area, but I wouldn't want to put all my eggs in that basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Well at least we're below freezing. 29/21 now imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Based on the mid levels, that's the zone. Unless the Euro mid levels is more correct, in which case that probably would be shifted east. You'll have some low level forcing east of that area, but I wouldn't want to put all my eggs in that basket. Could be a bit more compact than usual I think. The forcing doesn't extend as far west as you typically see but I bet we'll get a good deform zone into VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, CT Rain said: Could be a bit more compact than usual I think. The forcing doesn't extend as far west as you typically see but I bet we'll get a good deform zone into VT. Yeah, given how fast and late it develops, I doubt it has enough time to throw a deformation band all the way back to SLK. But probably naked snow angels at Stowe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Based on the mid levels, that's the zone. Unless the Euro mid levels is more correct, in which case that probably would be shifted east. You'll have some low level forcing east of that area, but I wouldn't want to put all my eggs in that basket. Time for a winter trip to Pittsburg. Mid level track is great for them and it looks pretty favorable for a period of pretty good upslope Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Time for a winter trip to Pittsburg. Mid level track is great for them and it looks pretty favorable for a period of pretty good upslope Friday morning That should probably save them from anything they lose on the easterly downslope early in the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 13 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Your further west than most It's NAM-ish where that zone is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Forked favorite model is always the NAM. Dude uses it on every example he posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That should probably save them from anything they lose on the easterly downslope early in the event. Yep coastals definitely not usually their thing, but in this case I could see them doing very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Forked favorite model is always the NAM. Dude uses it on every example he posts I like what they are putting out this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 looking forward to seeing how this one play out here in NW vermont. i could see us getting 2 inches, and maybe over a foot. tough call, dont envy the mets... good luck to all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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