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Oct 27th to 29th vigorous Vort max Sn/Rn/wind


Ginx snewx

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1 minute ago, MarkO said:

Somewhat surprised they're not blowing snow. Many places including Sunday River, and Wildcat are getting an early start.

 

Maybe they figure they are just going to laugh at everyone else by getting 18" of dense snow in this one. lol

 

But yeah, you'd think given the forecast of only a brief warmup here and there over the next 10 days, it would be a good time to try and get ahead. But who knows.

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29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not speaking for NWS directly ... but, issuance by necessity is definitely at least part of their mo. 

most of the snow according to perfectly valid analytic tools is along the aretes of the mountains where there's circumstantial desolation, abandoned trails, dear and black bears, ..sans any roads or ...well, people.  

if we want to get into questioning weather they will be right in that assessment, that's another discussion. 

Tip its probably another discussion for another time but it would be interesting to ponder if some kind of new advisory should be added to the repretoire Elevation dependant /watch/warning snows.  My brother lives in Aspen. I watch the weather out there.  Typically they issue Weather Advisories/Warnings by elevation..i.e.  Winter Storm Warnings for elevations over 8000 feet.  In a situation like this where its possible elevations over 1500 or 2000 feet could get advisory snows it might be prudent to discuss sometime.

In any event the sun has come out fairly brightly up here and I'm up to 39/31F so any accumulating front end snow chances seem to be diminishing.

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this would be a fun little critter that bites type of deal a month from now... 

not hard to envision this where the columns like 4 F colder at all sigmas.. .then we got that much more BL forcing to the coast, and yadda yadda yadda

Yeah if this was around T-day, we'd be talking warning snowfall for most of the region probably. The synoptics are pretty classic for it...everything would probably be pushed a little further south as the best baroclinic zone would be there, and redevelop this sucker off E LI or something.

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3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Tip its probably another discussion for another time but it would be interesting to ponder if some kind of new advisory should be added to the repretoire Elevation dependant /watch/warning snows.  My brother lives in Aspen. I watch the weather out there.  Typically they issue Weather Advisories/Warnings by elevation..i.e.  Winter Storm Warnings for elevations over 8000 feet.  In a situation like this where its possible elevations over 1500 or 2000 feet could get advisory snows it might be prudent to discuss sometime.

In any event the sun has come out fairly brightly up here and I'm up to 39/31F so any accumulating front end snow chances seem to be diminishing.

i get that the psychology of seeing that dreaded warm orb up there makes it harder to see things resulting certain ways.. but, heh, your 'warmth' is gossamer thin.  that would hygroscopically (evap. cooling) down to the same thing as a hilltop in western Mass real fast.  

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indirectly related... i have no expectations for this thing.

i suspect the bust vector is cool - as discussed above...  how much?  heh. not sure honestly.  

but, on October 27 of any given year, i get any aggregates successfully to the surface where I am is giggedy.  

and the experience is relative too; like, if it's been a warm pig autumn up to that point and we get 'white rain' ( the drops seem 'fat' and glowing) where the air 'smells like snow' and fireplace wood smoke is occasional -

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

and not to be a 'pre' douche but... if anyone complains because they don't get x-y-z outta this deal i beg the first observing Mod 5 posts them with a strong verbal warming about being delusional and annoying the hell out of everyone. 

 

Lol...yeah. Expectations on October 27th better be realistic.

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if this was around T-day, we'd be talking warning snowfall for most of the region probably. The synoptics are pretty classic for it...everything would probably be pushed a little further south as the best baroclinic zone would be there, and redevelop this sucker off E LI or something.

If we could have got this one to track NE under LI instead of NNE over LI it would have been game on for many

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18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

If we could have got this one to track NE under LI instead of NNE over LI it would have been game on for many

The primary is a little far north toward BTV and late redeveloping...just too much E flow for us before the precip makes it in. Maybe we can still wetbulb a bit.

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