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Ginx snewx

Oct 27th to 29th vigorous Vort max Sn/Rn/wind

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Models indicating a vigorous moisture laden Vort Max will collide with a strong cold HP. Various solutions are on the table but indications are for a much lower elevation 750 plus western NE snow event. NNE more firmly entrenched in the cold could have their first region wide snow. Heavy rain up to 2 inches could fall in many areas. 

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Both the European and the new Euro are bullish for the Whites and Western Maine with a sweet CCB, baroclinic leaf upon redevelopment. Miller time for them.

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I would favor those areas even down into the foothills region right now, We all know how the models handle a HP in the position this one looks to be in and the extent of the cold, It typically will trend the vortmax further south in time so bears watching

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15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

EPS is a solid hit for Sugarloaf. Ensemble mean is around 4" with roughly 20% of members dumping warning criteria.

Did you see where the new Euro EPS will be released basically the same time as the Op

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Did you see where the new Euro EPS will be released basically the same time as the Op

Another champagne toast in Reading as they push farther ahead of the GFS.

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Euro came in colder and south yet again suggesting snow possibly to the coast at the beginning. Seems many interior folks will whiten the ground and north of pike probably sees a good 1-3 before any mid level warming comes in

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New Euro really likes the Berks SVT SW NH for the SWFE jack. Then the Whites NW Maine NGREENS for the CCB. No rest for the weary as another strong diving SW on its heals for Sunday into a warmer airmass albeit still cold enough at the 3k picnic tables 

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Euro didn't look south and colder to me from 12z. There are still some things to work out like what the second s/w right behind it does and how ot phases. Either way, seems like pike north from ORH hills and west to Berks have a shot of first accumulations.  Still too early to get specific as things can change. 

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HP def stringer and forces it south

Thursday into Friday...

Interesting setup with cold airmass lingering over the region early
Thu in response to 1035 mb high over Quebec. Meanwhile Robust
northern stream short wave energy diving southeast into the Great
Lakes/OH valley. Differences in deterministic guidance with 00z EC
colder than 00z GFS on the front end with airmass over the region
early Thu. This results in the EC driving the baroclinic zone/storm
track farther southward. In addition EC is stronger with jet energy
diving into the Great Lakes/OH valley and also mergers energy
quicker than GFS...although not as robust as its prior 12z run. This
results in mid level flow digging farther southward to our
latitude...which would delay warming in the mid levels. In addition
this also results in cyclogenesis developing farther south than the
GFS...with EC forming secondary low along the south coast. This
scenario would linger low level cold air longer across the interior.
Both GEFS and EPS ensembles provide support for the deeper/colder
solution of the ECMWF. Thus will blend the stronger/colder ECMWF
solution into this forecast. So for now expecting a period of snow and sleet Thu at the onset
across north CT/MA...possibly as far east as the Worcester Hills

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They are comparing the GFS and EC. EC is further south at the srfc because it's obeying the laws for cyclogenesis. I think more importantly are the tracks of the mid levels. That's probably more important to look at for how long, if any snow happens in a specific area.

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Right now for SNE I'd prob say ORH hills and Berks have a decent chance of first measurable. Highest chance in Berks. Perhaps interior E MA and interior lower elevation CT could whiten ground if the colder sfc can verify. Don't like the timing though. If it came in about 8 hours earlier it would be better for lower elevations trying to get some accumulations...but we'll see. If you get a moderate burst its gonna stick. 

Theres a chance the best lift stays more north like near northern MA border and into CNE which would inhibit the snow chances further south. 

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A place like Rangeley could totally clean up if this thing gets cranking early enough to close off midlevel center southeast of PWM-ORH or so. 

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it's a New Jersey model secondary ...just displaced N.   instead of ACY -- ACK, it's ALB -- PWM or thereabouts. 

still, there was an interesting, albeit subtle trend to suppress the latitude (totality) of the evolution of this deal, between the 12z and 00z runs of the operational Euro.  

"as is" on this 00z run, this looks like a band between roughly RUT-CON ...20 mi give or take... could start with -SN, then fuss with ptype for a bit, then it's over to a solid 2 to 3 hours of dynamic parachutes. if the total dynamics were any stronger than lower end moderate, i'd even throw a crackle of thunder in there.

seeing the 850 mb thermal surface bend back so vigorously in cyclonic curl as the attending low closes off ... tells me there is a push of conditionally unstable air feeding directly into the lift region up under frontogenic forcing in that region so ... either way, wouldn't be surprised if a stripe of production aligns in there.  should this incrementally push S or N adjust accordingly.

we've seen lesser polar highs force south corrections .. usually, the thermal medium is colder tho, causing the BL inhibition/CAD being more viscous and less movable. don't know about similar pressures with temps only marginal though.   

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John good point about that 850 theta e push back to the west. That looks like a good sign for S+ in the high terrain of Maine. This would have probably been a nice event for many, a month from now. 

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52 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

it's a New Jersey model secondary ...just displaced N.   instead of ACY -- ACK, it's ALB -- PWM or thereabouts. 

still, there was an interesting, albeit subtle trend to suppress the latitude (totality) of the evolution of this deal, between the 12z and 00z runs of the operational Euro.  

"as is" on this 00z run, this looks like a band between roughly RUT-CON ...20 mi give or take... could start with -SN, then fuss with ptype for a bit, then it's over to a solid 2 to 3 hours of dynamic parachutes. if the total dynamics were any stronger than lower end moderate, i'd even throw a crackle of thunder in there.

seeing the 850 mb thermal surface bend back so vigorously in cyclonic curl as the attending low closes off ... tells me there is a push of conditionally unstable air feeding directly into the lift region up under frontogenic forcing in that region so ... either way, wouldn't be surprised if a stripe of production aligns in there.  should this incrementally push S or N adjust accordingly.

we've seen lesser polar highs force south corrections .. usually, the thermal medium is colder tho, causing the BL inhibition/CAD being more viscous and less movable. don't know about similar pressures with temps only marginal though.   

Very true, vertical velocities are pretty impressive Berks SVT SW NH especially on the soon to be replacement European. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

John good point about that 850 theta e push back to the west. That looks like a good sign for S+ in the high terrain of Maine. This would have probably been a nice event for many, a month from now. 

ha!  right - was thinking that exact thing .. man, on Novie 15 it's like 4-6 F colder everywhere and up and down with a high situated like that (and not a huge imagined leap that the llv cold benefiting from an actual pack over Ontario by then, too).

anyway, yeah ... almost looks like a quasi-trowal there -

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Don't expect anything more than maybe some start-up IP then catpaws at my 400' location in the foothills, though the 1"+ rain will be welcome.  (Note:  Google Earth's 2016 imagery shows my place about 20' higher elev than before.  Upthrust ahead of the Franklin County volcano?)

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ha!  right - was thinking that exact thing .. man, on Novie 15 it's like 4-6 F colder everywhere and up and down with a high situated like that (and not a huge imagined leap that the llv cold benefiting from an actual pack over Ontario by then, too).

anyway, yeah ... almost looks like a quasi-trowal there -

If it was November we could be looking at Oct 2011 redux

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39 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

This sentence is just funny.  :)

giving comedic credit where it is due, it was ..

but just in general, it's not an anolog anyway - 

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I'm also noting signs of some moisture coming off of Mass Bay and possibly interacting with the CF late morning near and west of BOS. Might even squeeze out flakes from that as temps aloftg certainly are cool enough and the cold side of front is probbaly cold enough. GFS even shows this.

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2m temps are kind of torched. It will be interesting to see how these look when we get a bit closer. I feel like the model guidance always tries to turn the winds too much to the east (not enough ageostrophic component) in these setups with a low coming in from the W and a high in Quebec, and flood the marine air way too far inland.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

2m temps are kind of torched. It will be interesting to see how these look when we get a bit closer. I feel like the model guidance always tries to turn the winds too much to the east (not enough ageostrophic component) in these setups with a low coming in from the W and a high in Quebec, and flood the marine air way too far inland.

It warms a bit near 925 too. I would definitely agree about the ageo part. I'll take a more nrly component please. 

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