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USCAPEWEATHERAF

Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

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Latest tropical and hurricane models indicate that landfall in the Carolinas or SNE is possible after the 18z runs, as we await the 18z GFS to finish up.  12z GFS brings 850mb wind near 80-90 knots over Cape Cod at hour 150-156.  It is a fast moving storm when it reaches our latitude.  So it will be in and out if it indeed hits our region, also heavy rainfall is possible 3-4" inland locations.  Stay tuned!  and discuss.

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why is ANYone assuming the Euro is wrong again? 

 

not sure i see that - 

5 or 6 days before this is above 34 N ... i mean, really - is this lesson NEVER learned. 

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43 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

So what should the next thread title become?

"ROOSTA gets blown away" LOL

I go out and run a few errands. Kind of knew the cone would  adjust to the W. Local media's tone has changed to a more ominous one and I quote "breezes inland with wind on the coast." Seems flooding is taking on more concern then the trend. One station put the spaghetti up mentioning almost as an after-thought of the trend. Hermine garnered more hype then Matthew. Guess there's still time      

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

why is ANYone assuming the Euro is wrong again? 

 

not sure i see that - 

5 or 6 days before this is above 34 N ... i mean, really - is this lesson NEVER learned. 

I don't think people are tossing it at all.    

If anything, I think many are still bowing down at its altar.   I'm intrigued by how it has been changing its opinion of the ridge a bit.  No reason to toss it at all

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

why is ANYone assuming the Euro is wrong again? 

 

not sure i see that - 

5 or 6 days before this is above 34 N ... i mean, really - is this lesson NEVER learned. 

Nws tossed it

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

why is ANYone assuming the Euro is wrong again? 

 

not sure i see that - 

5 or 6 days before this is above 34 N ... i mean, really - is this lesson NEVER learned. 

I hope they don't assume it's wrong.

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

why is ANYone assuming the Euro is wrong again? 

 

not sure i see that - 

5 or 6 days before this is above 34 N ... i mean, really - is this lesson NEVER learned. 

I agree very much on your post.  Slow, slow, slow.  More west at lower latitudes means more mileage Matthew has to cover to get up to 34N near Cape Hatteras.  Delays mean chances of missing the trough increase?  Further offshore solutions make sense.  Pretty hard to get something moving so slow to make it all the way up the coast.  In my opinion don't discount the Euro.  I have felt all along the chances of a further offshore track is higher than a track hugging the coast all the way up.

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Hi. Mostly just lurking here on the outside observing this thread and the tropical thread on the main site. I've enjoyed the exchange and analysis so thanks. One thing that's become apparent and definitely a lesson for me looking at this and future events, is I shouldn't get invested in something at this range when it's beyond the current capability to provide any truly accurate depiction. But, as some on here have mentioned, it's easy to get sucked in when you've been waiting for 18 months+ for anything of significance to occur. :) I've heard of 4 days out is typically when accuracy increases but I have to wonder if this might come down to changes in the pattern even within 48 hours.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Hey guys, in 5 days this should be near the Carolina's.  It's getting closer after a week of tracking.  

In three days it's going into Florida as a major hurricane

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Hey guys, in 5 days this should be near the Carolina's.  It's getting closer after a week of tracking.  

Better and more fun tracking this than drizzle and leaf colors in Stowe

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34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Better and more fun tracking this than drizzle and leaf colors in Stowe

Ha funny you took offense to that.  

Hopefully the weather gets more interesting for you.

 

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha funny you took offense to that.  

Hopefully it gets more interesting for you.

 

The more phased solutions have the mtn top snow. I'd root for that. 

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