JC-CT Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Will be fish storm. boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Night and day with that trough. When will that be well sampled? Tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 It's slower than the GFS, which based upon current forward speed, would make more sense. Definitely a narrowing of solutions towards impacts along the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Will be fish storm. How does it compare to the last run? Further east or west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yup-missed at the last minute but a correction on all guidance for 12Z. Important thing to glean is that what Euro once had has way Ots and Carolina miss is now a hit, so as it continues to play catchup to other models it should realize by 12z tomorrow it's coming up coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Fish Food after tickling the Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 It's like, what trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: How does it compare to the last run? Further east or west In the grand scheme the differences beyond the Carolinas the SLP is not all that different between 12z yesterday and 12z today. Trough is sharper today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Most assured I'm going to get into the fringe, to what degree? That is the question, personally a 50-100 mile offshore track would be preferable. Then again the weenie wants a direct hit, as a property owner further E the better. Impact time shortening with the trend cooperating with for the weenie. Very mixed emotions. Thankfully or regretfully feelings will ultimately not determine the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 The difference is the Plains trough. GFS digs, Euro not as much. Euro did dig it more, but not enough. GFS may back off the digging too as we get closer. Nobody knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: How does it compare to the last run? Further east or west 500 mi NE of 00z @168 hr, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The difference is the Plains trough. GFS digs, Euro not as much. Euro did dig it more, but not enough. GFS may back off the digging too as we get closer. Nobody knows. It's not just the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, 78Blizzard said: 500 mi NE of 00z @168 hr, lol Look at hr 144 today and 168h yesterday. Virtually identical locations with the SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Look at hr 144 today and 168h yesterday. Virtually identical locations with the SLP. I know, I was just comparing it to the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 lol it's so easy to tell who wants this to miss, and who wants a huge hit. Both sides equally bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 8 minutes ago, SnowlieSnowstormson said: Just based on that, the Euro looks like an ots outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Looked like 12z GEFS LF cape cod then mid coast me That's where I'll be......it might be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Id say a 55 percent prob of a us landfall at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: lol it's so easy to tell who wants this to miss, and who wants a huge hit. Both sides equally bad Most weenies want a hit. However, I think you also at least need to discuss and respect the euro. It has schooled even the tropical models on other previous events. Sandy and Joaquin come to mind. That said, if you are locking in or gaining confidence on something as a hit or fish at this stage...good luck buddy. Way...way too much time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 12z Euro was definitely faster (~12 hrs) than the 00z run. Matthew was definitely feeling at least a tug from the trough. Enough to pull him north and out to sea instead of the crap about drifting lazily off the southeast coast for days. And we're posting the JMA now. My god. This is the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Id say a 55 percent prob of a us landfall at this point, with a 100% chance that it will disappoint the most possible people relative to that actually happening ... . Nick's been on fire lately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 It's certainly a nice looking cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Most weenies want a hit. However, I think you also at least need to discuss and respect the euro. It has schooled even the tropical models on other previous events. Sandy and Joaquin come to mind. That said, if you are locking in or gaining confidence on something as a hit or fish at this stage...good luck buddy. Way...way too much time left. I think the ultimate point is, it's an eternity away. I'm not leaning one way or the other. It's a toss up, who has a clue at this stage. its like locking in 2 feet of snow from a run 7 days out. People on both sides setting up for disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: LOL. The JMA shows 985 mb off SC and 966 S of LI. I don't think that is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Took a peek at modeling and ensembles compared to those hurricane model spaghetti plots. Definitely a few different camps out there. I don't see a Florida landfall, definitely will be east of them but they may feel some effects. One camp wants to strengthen this thing out and slow down, missing the trof. Affects the Carolinas and hits them but then swings out to sea. Second camp is slightly weaker but tracks right near us. Seems to be a solid cluster between EPS and GFS ENS to the east, heading out to sea south of us. I tend to favor that given the lead time. As Ray, Scott, Will have said on different occasions before.. Narrow the goalposts. We'll know so much more in 48 hours. Soundings are now every six hours on the east coast.. balloon launches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Euro is not going to give you wild run to run swings, Looking at the 12z run, That was a positive in the direction if you were looking for a US landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Seems like big differences at h5 with Euro compared to GFS and CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 28 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: That's where I'll be......it might be fun. Certainly bears watching for there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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