JC-CT Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I think the products available to us, are not the real 13KM version. Not unless it is off by 50mb at initialization. I feel like we go through this with the GFS for every tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: I think the products available to us, are not the real 13KM version. I'm sure they are. See where we are now with the SLP and seeing what the Global models are showing are night and day with intensities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 all true... however, systems of pure tropical characteristics are exceedingly rate up this far N and they are invariably transitioning to extratropical in even the best case scenarios - which, they don't have those exceptionally tight inner gradient cores when that happens... in other words, a 980 mb variation of Matthew at CC is probably more believable than one with a 950mb inner eye wall - 'Course, i don't want to incur the wrath of a the storm zealots violated porn so - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Ukie makes landfall earlier in fl. Like melbourne west palm beach area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Scooter says UKIE LF in MYB then to Wallops Island, Va at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Scooter says UKIE LF in MYB then to Wallops Island, Va at 144 It was just posted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Here is the image showing the 930's pressure: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Earl Barker has the hires available (0.25deg GFS), but the 12z isn't out yet there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, eyewall said: Here is the image showing the 930's pressure: So this begs the question, what's the hi-res intensity as it crosses SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I said CHS Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: So this begs the question, what's the hi-res intensity as it crosses SNE? 978 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: So this begs the question, what's the hi-res intensity as it crosses SNE? I would have to say it would be much lower then the GFS showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 978 or so. AT least that is what I was told. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: 978 or so. Thanks, pretty damn strong storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Looked like 12z GEFS LF cape cod then mid coast me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Thanks, pretty damn strong storm. It's all relative because it is butting into a strong high. You have quite the gradient verbatim. I would not focus on intensity. That said, I would not lock in something huge for SNE yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's all relative because it is butting into a strong high. You have quote the gradient verbatim. I would not focus on intensity. That said, I would not lock in something huge for SNE yet either. True, 1030 high to the east there. Pretty good differential, not '78 good, but solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Thanks, pretty damn strong storm. 00z had 952mb at the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 What a gorgeous cane. Great outflow channels, eye clearing out nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, dendrite said: 00z had 952mb at the BM. Just saw 6z...938mb in the Gulf of ME. A brief landfall into the Carolinas does a decent number on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's all relative because it is butting into a strong high. You have quote the gradient verbatim. I would not focus on intensity. That said, I would not lock in something huge for SNE yet either. Who's locking in? I'm living in model world right now and enjoying the peep show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, Hoth said: What a gorgeous cane. Great outflow channels, eye clearing out nicely. Parallels 75W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/782991536497852416/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/782991536497852416/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw 5+ days out, plenty of ways for this to miss NE with any significant impact. That plot has a lot more E solutions than W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 It could also miss west lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Just saw 6z...938mb in the Gulf of ME. A brief landfall into the Carolinas does a decent number on it. yup - can't do both, folks. it's like, the only way people get Matthew ...or, what's left of it we should say ... is if it hit NC first ? if it doesn't, the modeling theme has been to curve it too much. we just don't really have a solution here (yet) that has this thing rocketing due N like the love joys in the annuls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yup - can't do both, folks. it's like, the only way people get Matthew ...or, what's left of it we should say ... is if it hit NC first ? if it doesn't, the modeling theme has been to curve it too much. we just don't really have a solution here (yet) that has this thing rocketing due N like the love joys in the annuls. I mean lets say hypothetically it hits the carolinas as a cat 3, or cat 4, I would imagine it still has enough gas to be a tropical storm by the time it hits us. I mean, look at what Irene was able to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, SnowlieSnowstormson said: I mean lets say hypothetically it hits the carolinas as a cat 3, or cat 4, I would imagine it still has enough gas to be a tropical storm by the time it hits us. I mean, look at what Irene was able to do. And Sandy. it can still be a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 these skim jobs bring interesting Meteorology ... if that's what folks have in mind, this is looking better and better for you. If you had the pipe-rocket along 73 W idea in mind ... not so much, at least yet. Could still evolve that way. But that bent-wire track guidance look to any track (regardless of model or ensemble member there is) is agreed upon by all ...it's just a matter of when/where the bend back more Ewards actually happens. it could be all wrong - IF IF IF the models are wrong on the amount and timing of phasing. As is, the phasing is incomplete until eastern Ontario and the present idea of partial phasing/timging causes Matthew to respond to steering fields that are less than optimally angled more N... causes it to really parabolically move around us in a large number of runs and individual members. Plus, the storm enthusiast doesn't really want Matthew to gain that much longitude passing through the Bahamas...if it stays more N than NW in that vicinity, THEN... the trough more purely phases, LOOK OUT. you got a straight N azz-hauler right into Worcester the whole way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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