Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Early 18z models. Clear shift W from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Early 18z models. Clear shift W from 12z. Nearly identical to Floyd once it gets to the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 19 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Early 18z models. Clear shift W from 12z. Where do these early models come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, moneypitmike said: Where do these early models come from? Hurricane Models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 EPS will look like the op. Basically EC vs the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Where do these early models come from? They are really early, since someone posted this graphic about 1½ hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS will look like the op. Basically EC vs the world. This is one time I'll take the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 50 minutes ago, dryslot said: Certainly bears watching for there Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like any action would be on Sunday right? I get confused with the speed up/slow down talk. Only reason I'm asking a fellow NNE sledder is because I'n supposed to go the grass drags in Epping, NH Saturday and want to avoid anywhere panic over a big storm will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 By looking at most all of the guidance should be fine on Saturday and it's looking more like anything it would be Sunday through Tuesday in that timeframeSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Hurricane Models. Huh.....I don't see it on the tropical tidbits site. These hit delictions do appear to be more typical in having a more easterly component to the trajectory than the earlier due north ones. Its a weaker system of course as it comes over land. But I think folks would be happy with that over a fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, moneypitmike said: Huh.....I don't see it on the tropical tidbits site. These do appear to be more typical in having a more easterly component to the trajectory than the earlier due north ones. Its a weaker system of course as it comes over land. But I think folks would be happy with that over a fish. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: By looking at most all of the guidance should be fine on Saturday and it's looking more like anything it would be Sunday through Tuesday in that timeframe Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That's what I thought. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 15 minutes ago, Amped said: Nearly identical to Floyd once it gets to the Bahamas. Might be a good compromise for this board...good enough to make things interesting but a weak enough system that any damage would be manageable for most. Interesting side note...New England was experiencing drought conditions leading up to Floyd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Do you have a breakdown of the individuals ens? How many went further west and north over the last run? I only can see the mean. But tough to igore the best guidance showing a fish storm. Still a lot of time, but I wouldn't get sucked in at this stage....although seems like many already are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I only can see the mean. But tough to igore the best guidance showing a fish storm. Still a lot of time, but I wouldn't get sucked in at this stage....although seems like many already are. Id see one quarter to a third make landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 So it begins.. Rick Scott @FLGovScott I have declared a state of emergency in every Florida county due to the severity and magnitude of Hurricane Matthew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 would be nice if the psychological posters make a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 NWS UPTON: It is noted that WPC does not, nor has it for the past couple of days, like the ECMWF handling of thetrough coming in from the west. In deference to the expertise of WPC in the long range, have adopted a non-ECMWF approach to Matthew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS will look like the op. Basically EC vs the world. WPC discounting Euro handling of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 9 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Id see one quarter to a third make landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 18z hurricane models are interesting drought buster for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I would call what OKX did "punting" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I don't know how you can toss or go all in with any solution this far out. How dumb. I remembered when they discounted the EC for Sandy and Joaquin too. I'm not saying it's right, but it becomes part of the package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I don't think anything is set in stone one way or the other, The only thing that can be said is most guidance as of right now shows a scenario that could impact the coast over the next 7 days or so, But there certainly is enough uncertainty to proceed with caution for at least another day or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 Matthew looks amazing, almost completed a new eye wall now. He should begin to intensify once again and the next hurricane hunters should find a completed eye wall structure and a clearing out of the eye. Also probably a category five hurricane before 11am tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I would wait until Weds or Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Matthew looks amazing, almost completed a new eye wall now. He should begin to intensify once again and the next hurricane hunters should find a completed eye wall structure and a clearing out of the eye. Also probably a category five hurricane before 11am tomorrow morning. I think maybe not? It seems to me that Matthew is at its most mature state and gradual weakening over the next few days is likely. I think even in good background conditions these systems have a life cycle. By consolidating equatorial heat and moving it poleward it is doing its job regardless of strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 That doesn't mean that intensifying period is over with, if it develops a new inner core which it has done recently than it can develop once more into a category five hurricane, also the conditions in the Bahamas and towards the NC/SC border favor intensification of the hurricane, not the other way around sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 ADT satellite intensity numbers are through the roof for Matthew, 135 knot winds, and a pressure of 926mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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