MJO812 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 0z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 To me the impact of Matthew into our region has more to do with the phasing shortwave that is crossing the nation as it does with the exact track of Matthew towards the Carolinas. For example, last night's 00z GFS had a strong & south shortwave and eventually phased with Matt....this AMs 6z GFS isn't as strong, and you see the result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Hr 162 on the GFS.Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 At least it's close enough in time now that it shows up on the ACK MEX guidance. GFSX MOS (MEX) KACK GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 10/03/2016 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 MON 03| TUE 04| WED 05| THU 06| FRI 07| SAT 08| SUN 09| MON 10 CLIMO X/N 66| 55 63| 56 64| 56 67| 53 67| 57 68| 60 69| 56 63 49 63 TMP 58| 59 58| 59 57| 60 57| 59 60| 63 62| 64 61| 59 55 DPT 56| 56 54| 55 53| 57 54| 55 58| 60 62| 61 58| 54 47 CLD OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV PC| CL OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV CL WND 9| 15 18| 19 20| 16 15| 10 12| 11 16| 56 56| 29 18 P12 18| 25 28| 35 41| 43 9| 15 18| 23 32| 87 46| 32 15999999 P24 | 51| 60| 43| 20| 42| 87| 37 999 Q12 0| 0 0| 0 1| 1 0| 0 0| 0 2| 5 | Q24 | 1| 1| 1| 0| 1| | T12 0| 1 3| 5 0| 1 0| 0 0| 0 10| 8 3| 3 1 T24 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 PZP 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 1| 2 0| 0 0 PSN 0| 1 0| 0 1| 2 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 1| 2 0 PRS 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 0| 0 1| 0 0| 1 1| 1 0 TYP R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R SNW | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 06z actually more of an impact for SNE. Heavy rain and then very strong winds as Matthew departs. 00z not as windy thanks to inverted trough...:unless you are on CC. Euro guidance still pretty far offshore although seems like some good spread on ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 6z looks like it has Matthew curving west and landfalling in far downeast Maine hours 156-162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Eye looks a little wonky, but has become ringed with really cold convection this morning, possibly indicating a bit of strengthening. Heading pretty much north along 75W. Haiti expected to get 25 inches of rain with lollis to 40. Disaster for them, especially considering their depleted landscape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 hour ago, dendrite said: At least it's close enough in time now that it shows up on the ACK MEX guidance. GFSX MOS (MEX) KACK GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 10/03/2016 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 MON 03| TUE 04| WED 05| THU 06| FRI 07| SAT 08| SUN 09| MON 10 CLIMO X/N 66| 55 63| 56 64| 56 67| 53 67| 57 68| 60 69| 56 63 49 63 TMP 58| 59 58| 59 57| 60 57| 59 60| 63 62| 64 61| 59 55 DPT 56| 56 54| 55 53| 57 54| 55 58| 60 62| 61 58| 54 47 CLD OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV PC| CL OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV CL WND 9| 15 18| 19 20| 16 15| 10 12| 11 16| 56 56| 29 18 P12 18| 25 28| 35 41| 43 9| 15 18| 23 32| 87 46| 32 15999999 P24 | 51| 60| 43| 20| 42| 87| 37 999 Q12 0| 0 0| 0 1| 1 0| 0 0| 0 2| 5 | Q24 | 1| 1| 1| 0| 1| | T12 0| 1 3| 5 0| 1 0| 0 0| 0 10| 8 3| 3 1 T24 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 PZP 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 1| 2 0| 0 0 PSN 0| 1 0| 0 1| 2 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 1| 2 0 PRS 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 0| 0 1| 0 0| 1 1| 1 0 TYP R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R SNW | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 hurricane models looking pretty interesting out to 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, Bostonseminole said: hurricane models looking pretty interesting out to 126 Yeah, nice look at 500mb. Certainly will be a long week of model gazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 There was a noticeable shift back west in both the hurricane models and the 6Z gefs and the hurricane models, but let's be honest there has been plenty of wobbling back and forth and until some of these key issues with the speed and depth of the trough approaching from the MW and the strength and placement of the blocking as well as the effect of that other low to the east of the storm there is really nothing completely off the table. A Euro solution would be very minimal in terms of sensible impacts through 240, although it seems to be an eastern outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Still looks like we have 2 camps as far as track goes. 06z GFS Ensm diverge around 06z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, nice look at 500mb. Certainly has been a long 3 weeks of model gazing. It has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I like the 944 member in the Gulf of Maine. Surf's up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, dryslot said: It has And on the 8th day God said let there be light! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 And on the 8th day God said let there be light!And light there wasSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Recon finding 940mb pressure and 140mph winds now. 16 mile diameter eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: 06z actually more of an impact for SNE. Heavy rain and then very strong winds as Matthew departs. 00z not as windy thanks to inverted trough...:unless you are on CC. Euro guidance still pretty far offshore although seems like some good spread on ensemble. God, there isn't any aspect of meteorological phenomena that I loath more than inverted troughs....aside from the 1/20 year occurrence that your BY gets smoked with their wintery fruits, they are nothing but a lame attempt at both the atmosphere and computer guidance alike to reconcile the fact that nothing much is really going to happen, aside from a demoralizing waste of potential. They have been showing up more on recent runs, and it makes me want to sprint to the toilet. What a vile turn of events they are- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: God, there isn't any aspect of meteorological phenomena that I loath more than inverted troughs....aside from the 1/20 year occurrence that your BY gets smoked with their wintery fruits, they are nothing but a lame attempt at both the atmosphere and computer guidance alike to reconcile the fact that nothing much is really going to happen, aside from a demoralizing waste of potential. They have been showing up more on recent runs, and it makes me want to sprint to the toilet. What a vile turn of events they are- It rips gusts well over 60MPH for all. If you can't get excited for that..perhaps begin writing winter forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 hour ago, Hoth said: Eye looks a little wonky, but has become ringed with really cold convection this morning, possibly indicating a bit of strengthening. Heading pretty much north along 75W. Haiti expected to get 25 inches of rain with lollis to 40. Disaster for them, especially considering their depleted landscape. Looks to be intensifying to me....larger eye implies that it has restructured, or in the latter stages of doing do. Likely just some high clouds shrouding the eye.....would think that clears by afternoon...everything remains on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Early 12z guidance has a bit more convergence up into the HAT area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Bermuda gonna get whacked no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I wasn't complaining, rather just a general expression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 SREF takes into FL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 9 hours ago, Amped said: Hmm maybe Hurricanes are stronger when they're over water. It only goes over HAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said: To me the impact of Matthew into our region has more to do with the phasing shortwave that is crossing the nation as it does with the exact track of Matthew towards the Carolinas. For example, last night's 00z GFS had a strong & south shortwave and eventually phased with Matt....this AMs 6z GFS isn't as strong, and you see the result. That's what I figured....it has to be more to do with the upper interaction with the trough because it doesn't cross much land, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 11 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Bermuda gonna get whacked no? I'd say only if the Euro comes to fruition would they see much in the way of impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 18 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Early 12z guidance has a bit more convergence up into the HAT area. That is also a much tighter clustering than we have been seeing. I think the 06Z GEFS did a great job of showing three different camps of possibility with this system: 1: Missed phase and out to sea cluster 2: Faster storm progression with phase for impact into ME/points east 3: Slower storm progression with phase for impact into SNE I still think #1 is the most likely option at this point, especially with the Euro, which has been nailing Matthew's track so far not on board. Still, we are talking the 144 hour time frame here and I am sure a lot will change in either direction in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Eps was pretty florida happy last night, interesting. Can we end the drought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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