40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 That is about the most infuriating, tantalizing solution imaginable.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is about the most infuriating, tantalizing solution imaginable.. lol, it was the only remaining solution no on the table.. wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 I'd rather sea it zip OTS.....at least then we get the arctic shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Still a week out weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 lots of comments about the EURO initializing wrong ( too far east) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 The trend with Matthew was good....fast. I think the trough was the issue....need it deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 I dnt think that matters....the east init....but dnt think this is the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Still a week out weenies. Yup. We could have consensus right now and it still wouldn't mean much. There's no problemo discussing the models though. The weens just need to stop living and dying run to run this far out. It's only a few people with the emo mood swings though. It goes to show how everything has to line up perfectly to get a 38 type track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 EURO has it coming back our way at 240 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: EURO has it coming back our way at 240 lol Intensifying again, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 This last Euro run kind makes sense to me as another option.. Matthew meanders in the Bahamas, slowly moves NW. Trough misses it and high pressure builds back in blocking it from coming north of the Carolina latitudes. Matthew waits for the high to move east and then comes up the back side. At the end of the run its strengthening again. Interesting solution if I live that long to see it. This thread is going to be 100 pages by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yup. We could have consensus right now and it still wouldn't mean much. There's no problemo discussing the models though. The weens just need to stop living and dying run to run this far out. It's only a few people with the emo mood swings though. It goes to show how everything has to line up perfectly to get a 38 type track. 31 pages and play by plays and almost inside of a week away. Hopefully a preview of winter threads to come when peeps be stealing others' snow every 6 hours for 7-12 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: This last Euro run kind makes sense to me as another option.. Matthew meanders in the Bahamas, slowly moves NW. Trough misses it and high pressure builds back in blocking it from coming north of the Carolina latitudes. Matthew waits for the high to move east and then comes up the back side. At the end of the run its strengthening again. Interesting solution if I live that long to see it. This thread is going to be 100 pages by then. There will be a new thread by then lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: 31 pages and play by plays and almost inside of a week away. Hopefully a preview of winter threads to come. 384hr GFS crushes Cape Cod with 4ft of snow and 65kt winds at 925mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: 384hr GFS crushes Cape Cod with 4ft of snow and 65kt winds at 925mb. Start every thread like that and just say "go". Is it a difference of miles or does New England get slammed. I will say tropical stuff is a little different as the storm is already formed even if 7 days away from us. Different from watching upper level energy over Siberia at 12 days out wondering if it'll form a storm in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 While we pick on James for starting this thread 15-16 days out, he has been right on quite a few occasions during winters past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 If we really want Matthew to make its way up here then we need coastal to deliver the timeless "not happening, James." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Matt looks particularly scary on satellite this hour ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: While we pick on James for starting this thread 15-16 days out, he has been right on quite a few occasions during winters past. Luck vs skill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Luck vs skill I was just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: Luck vs skill JMA nailed every HECS the past decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 Dendrite, I would say it is a mix of both, skill and luck. Matthew looks very ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: JMA nailed every HECS the past decade. Sort of like JB nailing every large east coast snowstorm for the past 15 years...but he also speculated and called for 100 that didn't pan out. If you always call for big storms, you'll probably nail every big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said: lol, it was the only remaining solution no on the table.. wtf We've seen just about everything from the Euro except a NE hit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 Matthew is a monster on satellite imagery. Look south of the circulation, the outflow channel to the south is so intense and the feeder spiral banding is nicely developed, all signs of a monster hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 I would venture to guess that the EURO slams Matthew into the Northeast US after day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 wait ... what's skill, and what's luck ?! no one, James included, made a prediction when this thread started - I think someone spun up a dialogue stream based on faux premise here. here ...this was the opening paragraph: ".. Well ladies and gentlemen of New England, it looks like the GFS and most models are bringing the tropical system through the Caribbean Sea then it turns northward in the Central Caribbean Sea as a powerful major hurricane and then rapidly intensifies further over the western Atlantic Ocean east of Fl, NC and VA and dumps close to 6-12" of rain on coastal SNE. Still we have a lot of uncertainty and this will change every run until it becomes more consistent. Stay Tuned!.." that may as well not have been stated at all! I have no issue with someone making a prediction 2 weeks ahead and having that come to fruition, but lets not blur what was really on the table here. it was a started out of eye-candy on a model run, and there really wasn't much predictive value even involved - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 they weren't talking about this thread per se Tip, but in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Let's see if it survives http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 Matthew will have no problem surviving the mountains of eastern Cuba and Haiti Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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