Typhoon Tip Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 this could not be a worse scenario for Haiti ... or any island with slopes facing S!! wow - wonder if flooding may reach an equalibrium-max, where it can get higher because the outflow off the land is no longer impeded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks to be intensifying to me....larger eye implies that it has restructured, or in the latter stages of doing do. Likely just some high clouds shrouding the eye.....would think that clears by afternoon...everything remains on the table. Really high heat content water it's passing over now. Upper air pattern pretty darn favorable. If its structure continues to improve, we could definitely see some more strengthening. Also, if it maintains its heading, it would minimize interaction with land. Fascinating evolution to say the least. Poor Haiti. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: this could not be a worse scenario for Haiti ... or any island with slopes facing S!! wow - wonder if flooding may reach an equalibrium-max, where it can get higher because the outflow off the land is no longer impeded. Yeah, Haiti is in for another natural disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, Haiti is in for another natural disaster. did you guys notice the 06z GFDL,... it has a Cat 5 hurricane cutting through the Bahamas... i'm wonder ..well, figuring on that being a pretty spectacular intensity (specifically) anomaly should that happen. obviously we all know that TC's of varying intensity will pass in that vicinity, but... Cat 5 would be rare, both by rareness of that intensity in general, but the ones that occur don't seem to favor that region. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 44 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Eps was pretty florida happy last night, interesting. Can we end the drought? Yeah maybe Ukie was not so drunk after all. That would also pretty negate any impact here. Obviously a very undecided set of guidance other than the tropical models. Still, the EC stuff gives me pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah maybe Ukie was not so drunk after all. That would also pretty negate any impact here. Obviously a very undecided set of guidance other than the tropical models. Still, the EC stuff gives me pause. differences in the genera synoptic evolution between ~100 W and Bermuda giving rise to ... heh, very disparate ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: did you guys notice the 06z GFDL,... it has a Cat 5 hurricane cutting through the Bahamas... i'm wonder ..well, figuring on that being a pretty spectacular intensity (specifically) anomaly should that happen. obviously we all know that TC's of varying intensity will pass in that vicinity, but... Cat 5 would be rare, both by rareness of that intensity in general, but the ones that occur don't seem to favor that region. interesting. Upper air pattern in the Bahamas is pretty darn good and the water is quite warm relative to average. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: did you guys notice the 06z GFDL,... it has a Cat 5 hurricane cutting through the Bahamas... i'm wonder ..well, figuring on that being a pretty spectacular intensity (specifically) anomaly should that happen. obviously we all know that TC's of varying intensity will pass in that vicinity, but... Cat 5 would be rare, both by rareness of that intensity in general, but the ones that occur don't seem to favor that region. interesting. Yeah, that was a wild run. Looked like it was a Cat 5 right up in NC. 920mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 51 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Eps was pretty florida happy last night, interesting. Can we end the drought? WAR has been pretty intractable all summer. Why stop now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 nam into SFL love those models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I am just lost for a reason why the NHC mentioned shear INVOF the Bahamas inducing weakening in a DISCO yesterday...I'm not sure what they were smoking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 So NAM at 84 takes this into SE Florida. It's the NAM, its 84 hours and the NAM is not a tropical model. Discounting all that it is interesting to see it shift west from its prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Starting to wonder a bit..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Starting to wonder a bit..... Come now, share your thoughts with the rest of the class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Starting to wonder a bit..... good to see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 About whether there is any validity to the FL solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Again, with the mention of shear over the Bahamas....jesus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 AFD out of Melbourne has mention of Tropical Storm conditions possible on "Friday" for my locale. From NHC I monitor the Wind Speed Probabilities. Percentile slowly increasing. Official intensity on graphics have Matthew as CAT2 which is highly suspect. The more tucked in I believe increases chances further N for a LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Again, with the mention of shear over the Bahamas....jesus... There is a shear increase on ships statistical guidance (8 kt now, 21 kt by 120 hours) with 95 kt on the 120 hour forecast point. Nhc seems to be following that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 There may be some shear in the Bahamas, but it depends on the motion. I think if it goes more west, it would lessen it whereas a more NNW motion would indicate stronger steering flow and some shear...just not much. It's amazing how the GFS corrects itself from previous runs. Slower again. I think slower means the chance it gets closer to FL or SE coast. It would miss the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 If some are looking for a LF in the Northeast, A slower solution is not what you are looking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I am starting to hope for a se impact....track up the coast is too risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 perhaps this will help elucidate what they are talking about: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Stronger Atlantic ridge. Should come close to SE coast if not hit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 74hr really close to fl, just south of grand bahama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Agree, Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Yeah, FL in the target zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 trof slower out west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I'll take that over a track off ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Ukie maybe with last laugh...or at least the idea of something closer to FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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