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12z GFS Fantasy Range, hy brid storm brings feet of rain to SNE

USCAPEWEATHERAF

By USCAPEWEATHERAF,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

I love this comment from NHC about FL within the context of this thread where we're trying to read the tea leaves for NE.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.
 

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BrianLaverty

BrianLaverty

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It's all about the trough in the west. If the Euro deepens that a bit more. Matt comes

I thought because of one run, it was shifting east and it's going ots?

 

whos more annoying.. the people wishcasting for a hit or the people wishcasting for it not to hit just to rain on those people.

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Hazey

Hazey

Posted
Posted
I thought because of one run, it was shifting east and it's going ots?

 

whos more annoying.. the people wishcasting for a hit or the people wishcasting for it not to hit just to rain on those people.


You must be new here...lol. You'll learn to tune out all the crap soon. It's a skill set that comes in handy here.

Back on point. Still 8 days away. Feels like an eternity due to this thread being started a week ago.
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It's all about the trough in the west. If the Euro deepens that a bit more. Matt comes

interestingly ... it does come up tho, sort of - it just waits until the next trough in the series closer to D10. 

this recent 00z solution is a bi-pass for latter scenario.  i find it interesting tho that it finds a way to bring it within caution range one way or the other; and i am sure others have noted, the trend west is probably what should be taken from that cycle. 

also, random thought, but one that's true nonetheless:  the Euro and 06z GFS ...these more westerly outlier solutions are unfortunate for the storm enthusiasts; they offer interaction with too much continental air mass down near the Carolina's.   that'll likely instantiate a weakening trend way down there; just as TC's often exceed intensity guidance when ramping up, the models might also 'hold on' to too much strength once that happens.  OR, typically .. the RECON will continue to show flight level velocities within mixing distance to the surface, but those will lift up as the storm begins to fragment its coupling with the surface due to the introduction of stable air at the lower levels. 

there's so many variables that have to line up just right .. It's almost like you have to pull the blinds and ignore it all until you happen to over-hear a couple water cooler dwellers, and then it's  "Hey - I didn't just waste 10 days of life!"  

For people who are less storm enthusiasts and more into this stuff because they have a dominant nerd gene - this last week has been like when that half naked cheer-leader comes flying through the horny 13-year old's bedroom window up over the on-going bedlam near the end of "Animal House" - hand lotion and tissue paper along side of an assortment of smut magazines laid open, the 19-year perfect body plops before him and he exclaims, "Thank you God!"  

if/when these things approach LI from due S the 'only' thing they have to deal with is cool shelf waters - a negative factor that can and sometimes is observably mitigated by forward speed of storm translation.  less time spent over cold water, less weakening.  you really want these things to zip N .. caught up in the low SRS (storm-relative-shear) of in situ atmosphere. maybe the seasonal apex water temps of the year might help, though this idea tends to spark arguments for some reason.  there's really only one purer bred distinction in the annuls .. that of course being 1938.  

nevertheless, the 06z does have forward storm motion on its side.  the trough really latches on in that solution and this thing's haulin' azz after nicking the outer Banks and coming ashore over LI.  will see if it chokes of continental air when it nicks.

As for the Euro.. it seems the only way that particular model is interested in affecting SNE is if it bows the lower latitude track so far west that Matthew moves bodily onshore over the Carolina's first.  one thing it has never liked throughout this modeling saga we've brow-wrung our way through over the past week .. is that straight-ish N storm track idea of the GFS and NAVGEM camps.  i suppose it fits with it's tendency in long leads, it loves curvilinear flows so it may as well do that with storm tracks - heh.  

For me .. as of this morning i'm really more pleased with a break in the 18-month long dearth of drama in the weather.  i'm a nerd? sure... but i also like a good tar-and-feathering from time to time too, geesh.  man, this has been f boring, dudes!  and no offense, but relying upon a community of like-enthusiasts .. spinning comedy and/or regurgitating old stories of lore, over and over again, to fill the void of missed companionship of angry skies?  k.  

i suppose each quadrant of the hemisphere gets a kind of, 'Oh my God - MOMMMY!' terror budget; you're only allowed to hide in the closet say once every 5 years?  i dunno.  it's time for a storm, if not the delusion of one - hey, some prefer delusion over despair!  guilty pleasures -   

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

28 pages and the storm isn't even inside 6 days yet. Lol. 

 

GFS is definitely the outlier right now...though I still don't see how much skill any of these runs have yet. You should almost always hedge east until there is a very compelling reason not to. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Here's an interesting perspective ... it's a culmination of all GFS operational runs to date:

trck.jpg

If nothing else it underscore how hard it must be to get a fun event here!  only ... 20% of those track layouts are impacting here in SNE, of which, several are already impossible because their track guidance proved false in the timing of the right turn. 

That said, ... i do find the right turn aspect fascinating in its own rite.  That's a pretty fantastic accomplishment and/or demos there must have been one helluva physical presence in the atmosphere for the model be so consistent with that from the get go - nice. 

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78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Here's an interesting perspective ... it's a culmination of all GFS operational runs to date:

trck.jpg

If nothing else it underscore how hard it must be to get a fun event here!  only ... 20% of those track layouts are impacting here in SNE, of which, several are already impossible because their track guidance proved false in the timing of the right turn. 

That said, ... i do find the right turn aspect fascinating in its own rite.  That's a pretty fantastic accomplishment and/or demos there must have been one helluva physical presence in the atmosphere for the model be so consistent with that from the get go - nice. 

That's an interesting spaghetti chart which covers eight days.  What would be more interesting is a two or three day chart showing the more recent trends as the system has intensified and as the ridges and troughs ahead of it have shaken out as we get closer.  My guess is that it would show a fairly good consistency of NE hits or slight misses.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

That's an interesting spaghetti chart which covers eight days.  What would be more interesting is a two or three day chart showing the more recent trends as the system has intensified and as the ridges and troughs ahead of it have shaken out as we get closer.  My guess is that it would show a fairly good consistency of NE hits or slight misses.

it wouldn't show more than what you see there ?  this is all of them, included those last three days - 

i think it would be interesting to see this in time lapse ...plotting them over time in animated GIF

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78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it wouldn't show more than what you see there ?  this is all of them, included those last three days - 

i think it would be interesting to see this in time lapse ...plotting them over time in animated GIF

You miss my point.  I don't want to see the plots older than 2 or 3 days, only the recent ones.

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