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CoastalWx

disMay Pattern Disco

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How low can we go tonight

42/38 here atm.

Monday night looks pretty chilly as well.

I have had the wood stove going 5 of the past 8 nights. I'm done with cold, bring on summer.

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Yeah...definitely looks frosty tonight in the usual spots. Not sure how well I'll be able to decouple on the hill. We're nearing the end of 32F threats IMBY...CON has a little bit longer in the valley.

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Yeah...definitely looks frosty tonight in the usual spots. Not sure how well I'll be able to decouple on the hill. We're nearing the end of 32F threats IMBY...CON has a little bit longer in the valley.

 

We are past my average date of last hard freeze (28°) on 4/28 but approaching the date of average last 32° reading (5/12).  However, my average date of last 38° reading isn't until 5/28.

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Down around 30 this morning at my place, and if the wind quits soon enough this evening, should see upper 20s tomorrow.  Average date for last 28 or lower is May 16.

 

Edit:  10 AM obs at MWN:  Temp 12, WCI -14

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hm.   

wondering if the GFS' old N-stream dominance bias is rearing it's ugly head. 

 

pretty clear tele mode change across the board and it seems despite that being gefs-derived, the oper. version is the last one to raise heights from the east pacific clear to england.  that's looking like a hemispheric issue. interesting. 

 

2nd half of the month ... quite the different chapter.

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I wonder if we can sneak in a positive departure day Wed or Thu. Gonna be close.

 

We're on quite a run...the last above average temp day at BDL, ORH, and PVD was 4/25. For BOS it was 4/23.

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I wonder if we can sneak in a positive departure day Wed or Thu. Gonna be close.

We're on quite a run...the last above average temp day at BDL, ORH, and PVD was 4/25. For BOS it was 4/23.

80 BDL?

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Are you sold on BN in all areas ?

 

Yep. based on at least the next 6-10 day....it will have to be a furnace to finish and I don't see that. 

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What do you see last 10-14 of month?

 

It could end up AN I suppose, but my point is that I don't see an all out furnace to turn every station into + departures. Like 0.5F or greater. Look at this week. The nights will kill any + departures for highs. 

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i thought "AN" meant about normal...

 

haha. 

 

ORH and BOS are -7 and -6 respectively through yesterday.  to get them 'above' normal we'd have to exceed that mean spread out over the next 21 days. 

 

it's not likely, but not impossible, either.  we'd have to have 80+ /62 F type heat for a number of days book ended by no more negatives... 

 

it's too early to say that can or can't happen between the 20th - the 30th of the month, peering ahead from this point in time. 

 

i don't think exceeding normalcy by some is hard though, when normal high for both those locations is 64 or 65 for this week. today is our most suppressed temperature day barring a rain day late in the week, and we're within 1 to 3 F over high temp average as it is...   tomorrow will likely be above average for the high, but the low tonight may not combined as such in terms of 24 hour mean. 

 

as usual, small perturbations in cloud and wind direction allow for bust potential. 

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I wonder if we can sneak in a positive departure day Wed or Thu. Gonna be close.

 

We're on quite a run...the last above average temp day at BDL, ORH, and PVD was 4/25. For BOS it was 4/23.

 

The 5 hours of sunshine last Friday bumped our temp to 65 and gave us our only AN day since 4/23.  12z GFS has 76 for AUG and 80 at RUM on Thursday, which seem awfully generous.  Maybe if we get dry downsloping WNW winds?

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Good chance now May comes in BN.

Totally agree..no real +DN until near last week of the month, which might also be very stormy for May think circa 22-23 and around 30th could be convectively active period for NEUS, esp. the 30th.

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