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disMay Pattern Disco

CoastalWx

By CoastalWx,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

And no one cares about normal mins this time of year. It's all about sun and max temps. I'd guess you can go back quite a bit further if using avg highs to start the month.

Now thats a blow out

1	2016-05-05	51	4
2	2005-05-05	64	0
-	1978-05-05	64	0
4	1961-05-05	65	0
5	1966-05-05	67	0
6	1984-05-05	68	0
-	1962-05-05	68	0
-	1956-05-05	68	0
9	2009-05-05	69	0
-	1974-05-05	69	0

post-322-0-85619400-1462452139_thumb.jpe

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

 

When we say this is abnormal and doesn't often happen..we mean it. This is as bad as anyone could ever conjure up. And yes now now next week looks ruined aside from 2 nice days Tuesday and Wed

 

Ralph'sWxEyes 

 

Coldest start to May for Hartford in 3 decades (since 1986). Bridgeport,CT since 1987. -7.5 below normal at BDL.

ChsRDMxWEAAGsfw.jpg

 

 

why is it that when the collection of Meteorologists that service this board come by way of a consensus as to what is "really" going on ... Kevin goes out on the web (predictively so...) and finds some Tweet or FB or some other random person's disgruntled opposing thought, and then comes in and posts it - probably without said person's permission to do so, mind you.. - and then acts like THAT is the truth? 

 

hard numbers point out that this is not that unusual...  Yet, that fact cannot with the use of an electron tunneling laser, seem to penetrate the miles of whatever substance it is that creates that man's skull.  

 

If the GGEM and Euro verified from 00z, it'd by 80/60 next Tuesday with even TCU threats...and the change there after would be typical for May.   

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

why is it that when the collection of Meteorologists that service this board come by way of a consensus as to what is "really" going on ... Kevin goes out on the web (predictively so...) and finds some Tweet or FB or some other random person's disgruntled opposing thought, and then comes in and posts it - probably without said person's permission to do so, mind you.. - and then acts like THAT is the truth? 

 

hard numbers point out that this is not that unusual...  Yet, that fact cannot with the use of an electron tunneling laser, seem to penetrate the miles of whatever substance it is that creates that man's skull.  

 

If the GGEM and Euro verified from 00z, it'd by 80/60 next Tuesday with even TCU threats...and the change there after would be typical for May.   

I don't see that at all on the Euro

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

 

Now thats a blow out

1	2016-05-05	51	4
2	2005-05-05	64	0
-	1978-05-05	64	0
4	1961-05-05	65	0
5	1966-05-05	67	0
6	1984-05-05	68	0
-	1962-05-05	68	0
-	1956-05-05	68	0
9	2009-05-05	69	0
-	1974-05-05	69	0

I'd call that the gloomiest start to May ever...and easily. Got CON and BOS?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

what?! 

 

does anyone else see the problem/logical incongruity between those two products...  How would Bridgeport CT by that far off from Hartford -Bradley? 

 

...plus, that is obfuscating the point!  

 

the point, to re-iterate, is the commonality/frequency of occurrence of this "sort of thing" 

 

no one argued the absolute decimal value of this departure... but when the top 20 going back is within 1 F (and the doesn't include the top ...50 or whatever that were within 2 or 3 F of the same schits), the point is proven.

 

this is not that uncommon - stop complaining and suck up facts man.  

 

and next week, it will be a memory - most likely... 

 

by the way, i still disagree this is "as bad" as 2005 - 2005 was 2.5 weeks of schits.  this will be less than that -

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Bridgeport?

 

Both graphs are BDL. One is using avg means and the other is using the highest max temp for 5/1-5/4 for the period of record.

 

We have relatively warm mins right now from the overcast nights. The point is nobody gives a shiat if the mins are near normal this time of year. Joe Public wakes up in the morning to OVC -DZ and 40F and thinks "more crap". In the afternoon it's still 46F with -RA. I tend to judge a warm season day based on the high temp.

 

A day of 46/40 is considerably more miserable than 60/26 with sun even though they both have the same mean temp.

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted

Well lets get back on topic...

 

How's next week's big warmup and pattern change looking?

 

 

I know the end of April change was a fail, but I was counting on next week. I saw it posted on twitter.

:lmao:

 

...I was just driving over rte 44 from Putnam to Manchester and I swear I saw a few flakes coming down along the way.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Bridgeport?

 

Both graphs are BDL. One is using avg means and the other is using the highest max temp for 5/1-5/4 for the period of record.

 

We have relatively warm mins right now from the overcast nights. The point is nobody gives a shiat if the mins are near normal this time of year. Joe Public wakes up in the morning to OVC -DZ and 40F and thinks "more crap". In the afternoon it's still 46F with -RA. I tend to judge a warm season day based on the high temp.

 

A day of 46/40 is considerably more miserable than 60/26 with sun even though they both have the same mean temp.

 

yeah my bad - 

 

i didn't see the references to Hartford and BDL on there and thought folks were thus comparing apples and oranges.  

 

oh well. heh. 

 

that said, ...it doesn't change the point that this period, albeit annoying, ...isn't so far off from typology for new england in the spring that it warrants special notice like that.  

 

other than commiserating over the fact that it sucks... sure -  But i both remember, and can find in the data, enough periods like this since moving to this part of the country over 30 years of time, not to freak out and over sell this kind of lousy weather.

 

but, perhaps it's a topic that we should just let ride after all.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Well I don't see 2 days of 80/60 on the Euro at all next week. I wish it showed that, but it doesn't.

 

"...it'd by 80/60 next Tuesday ...."

 

and it doesn't mean anything that you in particular can't see x, y, z on a synoptic chart because you are not trained to do so.  

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

The first 5 days of December averaged 36°F here....we are well above that through the first 5 days of May.

The first 5 days of May and the 5 days centered around Christmas may be a better comparison.

 

 

These are the highs for ORH for the given datasets. Guess which one is May and which one is Xmas. :)

 

53

65

60

52

54

 

50

48

49

46

45

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Euro is trying to be warm again this next tuesday but these runs keep insisting on a ribbon of baroclinic piled RH extending roughly OH to NYC and it's overlap into SNE and so forth.  

 

not sure i buy that detail on a D5 chart - not in the Euro wheelhouse for that sort of thing for one, but ... the deep layer structure of the flow would allow more traditional/climo clearing on SW flow into SNE.   sky coverage is notoriously over casted in backside anticyclone flows.  

 

it's one day ...but we claw and scrape in this dungeon pattern.  i'd give that 50/50 for surging T through the 70s on that day... 

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted

Euro is trying to be warm again this next tuesday but these runs keep insisting on a ribbon of baroclinic piled RH extending roughly OH to NYC and it's overlap into SNE and so forth.  

 

not sure i buy that detail on a D5 chart - not in the Euro wheelhouse for that sort of thing for one, but ... the deep layer structure of the flow would allow more traditional/climo clearing on SW flow into SNE.   sky coverage is notoriously over casted in backside anticyclone flows.  

 

it's one day ...but we claw and scrape in this dungeon pattern.  i'd give that 50/50 for surging T through the 70s on that day... 

Good things that some put a.c. in in April.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

yeah,... i'm seeing the same thing here:

 

"....LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL VORTICES ON BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN U.S. ARE EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK..."

 

in that ending period of deamplitude is any hope for warm-up...  

 

but this,  "... THIS WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A REX BLOCK/SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AS A DEEP-LEVEL RIDGE OR CUTOFF HIGH FORMS INTO CENTRAL CANADA..." 

 

has me wondering what we return to thereafter...  the GEFs -derived tele's have the EPO tanking, and this actually does show up reasonably well in the individual members, too.  at this time of year .. with the wave length et al morphed(ing) seasonally, the same correlations no longer applied; don't know if  a -EPO presages a cool event over mid latitude N/A in the same way as it would in DJFM ...  hm.  but it's playing with chilly matches... 

 

otherwise, the PNA is dropping and the NAO is into a warm signal at CPC...  so perhaps some mixed signals heading deeper into the month.  once this current closing U/A system and all lifts out like above though, we should be more seasonable into this second week of the month. 

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