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disMay Pattern Disco

CoastalWx

By CoastalWx,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Interesting how that "beyond" appears from seemingly nowhere. I wouldn't say the ensemble guidance has a major signal at all. Rather mixed in fact, with hints of troughing trying to work back towards the area after the ridging next week.

 

 

Yep. 

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weathafella

weathafella

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So say those who have money to burn.

 

I wish I had central air.  My revolutionary war aged house is awful in the summer.  We have one window unit, and a few of those rolling units with the hoses...I can't risk hanging anything off of the main windows.  Trim and moldings are too fragile at the openings.

I figure he'd have sold insulation and had more than enough $$ from convincing local folks that hard winter begins at Labor Day.

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

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For the life of me I do not understand why someone would want to be using AC during April and May. Cool to seasonable weather for this time of year is ideal because it allows for saving money on cooling and heating costs. Prior to becoming a member here I never knew of anyone who has/had OCD about installing and using AC.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I don't worry about that here on sunny days. 

Everything I've seen model wise and forecast wise has 70's+ next week. Maybe OceanWx is seeing something different. Just curious

It looks like they'll be some nice days, but low pressure approaches from the SW at some point. It may cause a day or two of overrunning weather...but obviously things will change. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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I'm holding out hope that daytime Thursday we are in between systems, a rough week to get anything done outdoors, just have to try and time the breaks. Pain in the neck for our little league scheduling as well.

Yeah with soccer, softball and lawn work..It's like how do you get anything done? Soccer yes..softball probably not, mowing ..almost no chance

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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I don't worry about that here on sunny days.

Everything I've seen model wise and forecast wise has 70's+ next week. Maybe OceanWx is seeing something different. Just curious

I have no issue with your interpretation of the forecast for next week. We should get a couple winners based on the look verbatim. It's the "beyond" when things could fall apart for you.

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dmillz25

dmillz25

Posted
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Haha nice.

I'm headed to the Dominican for a week on May 11th...after this abortion of a winter it'll be nice to go somewhere tropical.

It'll also be nice not to just have it without having to wishcast hot sunny weather.

what part you're headed to? My Family is from Puerto Plata over there
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Dan

Dan

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Haha nice.

I'm headed to the Dominican for a week on May 11th...after this abortion of a winter it'll be nice to go somewhere tropical.

It'll also be nice not to just have it without having to wishcast hot sunny weather.

 

 

I'm heading to Florida for a week on May 10th.   Low 90's every day with low 70s every night....perfect.  Hopefully I can get a couple of afternoon thunderstorms thrown in.   :lightning:

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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what part you're headed to? My Family is from Puerto Plata over there

Punta Cana... doing the ol' all inclusive veg out for a week type vacation. Just nice to get away and do nothing but R&R for a week after the ski season, in which you never truly have a day off, but such is life in that industry. You're all in from Nov 1 through end of April.

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tamarack

tamarack

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:whistle:

 

 

Glad we're going on vacation. 

 

attachicon.gif2016-05-02_22-46-57.png

 

Enjoy - but my impression is "too warm too soon."  When we were on Oahu last month, day 1 was 83 and sunny and we found it almost stifling.  Next 2 days (on the North Shore - HNL was PC and warmer) we enjoyed low 70s, clouds, and the occasional spritz, just right after leaving IP and 35F RA.  Of course, the locals were shivering and running the heaters.   :lmao:

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I just kicked the heat in, yuck 62 in the house and damp. First day of May I recorded sleet which goes in the book as a T of frozen. First frozen for me since 77. Pretty awful stuff. Look forward to some CoC a doodle 70s next week.

 

You didn't sneak any flakes in May of '02?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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the "interpretation potential" comes with a broad spectrum when it comes to separating a "warm-up pattern" from normal seasonal migration.

 

at this time of year, ...said migration is "supposed" to be toward warmer, anyways.  

 

If by "beyond", he was talking about seasonality - I don't have a problem with it's use.  

 

Verbatim?  I agree it doesn't come across like that's what's in mind.

 

if you guys have a moment in boredom ... go google 'SNL's Mr Subliminal'   ..circa 1980's, Kevin Nealon played this slickster type that had a hilarious way of communicating depraved words ...like wedged in-between central meanings, where the listener doesn't quite catch the word but is than magically influenced.  of course as the skits went, Nealon's character was usually plying his talent ...sitting on the corner of some hapless hot office woman's desk, who of course ends up hypnotized into doing what he wanted... 

 

in a tongue-in-cheek analogy, ...the thing is, to what end does that serve on a weather site?!  seriously...have any of you ever taken his efforts to thwart reality to its logical conclusion?   ...it's like, he spins up some invention, ... if he then succeeded his subliminal tactical analysis, then what - we are all deluded into believing it is warm out (or vice versa) and wonder out in short sleeves in drilling 47 F mist?   'aahhhh.  Nes-tea tropical days...'

 

it really has no purpose.  

 

i'm left to ponder if it's all really just deliberate for his own entertainment.  he's a hornet's nest poker by nature. he throws proverbial verbal rocks at otherwise orderly communal bee-hives and then watches the fervent riot unfold from afar because for whatever reason, he finds frenetic melees entertaining -

 

having wasted too much time defining all that...

 

I spent time over recent days posting that i felt more confident in the second week of May as being more solidly heading in the right direction, as far as sans the winter-appeal to the pattern that's been taking liberties with its more typical annual exit scheduling... I still see it that way based upon the pantheon of tele's and operational trends and so forth..

 

Re the latter, the oper. trends.. .that's been the harder one. the type of trend we are sniffing out is uniquely "fail-able" by the Euro and GGEM ...UKMET for that matter, because that ilk of foreign models, they all dig dig dig too much, routinely...albeit more subtle vs gross at times, beyond about D5 of any given cycle.    Compounding ... the GFS, with its slight progressive bias, actually sides with them - making the whole thing seem questionable.   yet the tele's are off-setting that signal and continue to do so.  until i see that change, ...one way or the other, the mass-fields dictate the pattern orientation and in this case the oper. runs ...scurrying home to winter at least excuse imaginable in their middle and extended ranges, appear to be the emergent outliers.  they'll conceded eventually, and every other two runs or so we see one of them do so.  

 

all that is code for more seasonally agreeable temperatures and sky conditions likely by or during that 2nd week of May. 

 

i never said "heat" per say... buuut, if you are one that enjoys that sort of thing, it is a step in the right direction.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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in the mean time ... for those warm weather enthusiasts... you gotta get rid of this:

 

test8.gif

 

 

that is a cold pattern in May.  no question...  That is the D8-10 mean of the oper. versions provided by E-wall.  but that arc of positive anomalies connecting across the N Can shield to Alask ...that's really no different than a 'split vortex'  - AO thing.  it just appears that the atmosphere in this case is not obeying geometric rules (so to speak..heh), by displacing the split a bit on this side of the hemisphere.  

 

i bet that AO is actually nearing positive in that construct, but that is a situation where the "qualification" of the index is more important than the quantitative analysis. 

 

with the NAO rising and the EPO for that matter, eroding this structure is likely going to be a case ....  i mean, ha, if you think about it, it has too: JULY is going to happen one way or the other.   

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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the "interpretation potential" comes with a broad spectrum when it comes to separating a "warm-up pattern" from normal seasonal migration.

at this time of year, ...said migration is "supposed" to be toward warmer, anyways.

If by "beyond", he was talking about seasonality - I don't have a problem with it's use.

Verbatim? I agree it doesn't come across like that's what's in mind.

I think it's taking a good looking signal for a nice couple of days next aeek and extending it beyond the range of guidance. Saying that there is any sort of strong signal heading into the third week of May is disingenuous I think. Could it be nice? Sure. But there are signs that sustained warmer than normal temps could fail too. Much like the end of April that caused some to install early.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I think it's taking a good looking signal for a nice couple of days next aeek and extending it beyond the range of guidance. Saying that there is any sort of strong signal heading into the third week of May is disingenuous I think. Could it be nice? Sure. But there are signs that sustained warmer than normal temps could fail too. Much like the end of April that caused some to install early.

 

I certainly did not see a "strong" signal on the weeklies...albeit they were a bit AN. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I think it's taking a good looking signal for a nice couple of days next aeek and extending it beyond the range of guidance. Saying that there is any sort of strong signal heading into the third week of May is disingenuous I think. Could it be nice? Sure. But there are signs that sustained warmer than normal temps could fail too. Much like the end of April that caused some to install early.

 

ah hahaha... 

 

man, this install thing - jesus are we bored here or what.  

 

i was just looking at the NAM's version of this next three day story-line along the MA/NE ... that's 2005 incarnate. it won't last as nearly long (like, 2.5 weeks straight with no let up).  but, we're one three days and counting of having nature stuff our heads up the her unfun hole (depending on one's preferences...) , and just when you'd think it reasonable to conclude it's likely to get better because of all that time in the schits, ...it just gets schittier. 

 

that was 2005 spread out nearly three weeks.  every days a was a little better than the next ...FOR EVER EVER ever ever

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tamarack

tamarack

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that was 2005 spread out nearly three weeks.  every days a was a little better than the next ...FOR EVER EVER ever ever

 

5/22-26/05 at my place:  Avg high 48, avg low 41, precip 5.14". 

That wrecked my cold-wx veggies (carrots, lettuce, etc), then June 15-18 had avg temps 54/46 with rain each day, and killed my warm-wx crops.  Only the tomatoes/peppers in the black plastic mulch area survived, barely.

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