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Winter 2016-2017 Speculation and Discussion


AlaskaETC

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I just came across this long range forecast on MSN from Accuweather:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/us-winter-forecast-frequent-snow-to-blast-northeast-freeze-may-damage-citrus-crop-in-south/ar-BBwJcq2?li=BBnb7Kz

 

BBwJ7gI.img?h=366&w=650&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f&x=359&y=246

 

Frequent storms to bring above-normal snowfall to northeastern US

Frequent storms across the northeastern U.S. this winter may lead to an above-normal season for snowfall.

"I think the Northeast is going to see more than just a few, maybe several, systems in the course of the season," AccuWeather Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

Unlike last season, in which most of winter's snowfall came from a few heavy-hitting storms, this winter will last into the early or middle part of spring and will feature frequent snow events.

According to Pastelok, accumulation may be limited in areas south of New York City, such as Philadelphia, D.C. and Baltimore. These areas will see a handful of changeover systems, where falling snow transitions to rain and sleet.

"But still, Boston, Hartford, along the coastal areas up into Connecticut and southern New England, they can still have a fair amount of snow," he said.

Overall, it's predicted that the region will total a below-normal number of subzero days, though the temperature will average 3-5 degrees Fahrenheit lower than last year.

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37 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Snow is increasing for sure! It matters in October! 

SnowAdvancejpg.jpg

Likely transient. If we believe in the SAI, then we'd want that snow to melt, then see a reloading of the same pattern a little later in the month so that the rate of increase is greater at that point than it is early in the month.

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22 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Likely transient. If we believe in the SAI, then we'd want that snow to melt, then see a reloading of the same pattern a little later in the month so that the rate of increase is greater at that point than it is early in the month.

 

I just want everything to point to a good snowy winter!

SAI along with the rest!

 

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I don't care how we do it- I want a Holiday season as cold as 1983 with twin HECS the week before Christmas and again on New Year's Eve. Don't give me pesky science facts and climo- if we can do all the crap we did last December with heat, we can go the other way too. ...man, I just channeled the spirit of Jebman there for a minute. :lol:

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18 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Glad I don't take much stock on the CFS because it gotten progressively worse over the last 4-6 weeks for snow lovers. Hope this is just a case where it flips on a dime like we have seen so often from it in the past. As far as the CanSips, it hasn't looked good all summer and that hasn't changed.

When was the last time either forecasted the same thing at this juncture , and the winter turned out the opposite ? Probably happened 2013-14 and 2014-15.

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4 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

When was the last time either forecasted the same thing at this juncture , and the winter turned out the opposite ? Probably happened 2013-14 and 2014-15.

Sorry, my statement was poorly worded and gives the impression that the CFS looks horrible which is not the case. The pattern it shows does have promise and with a little tweaking would potentially be a very good pattern. My comment was based solely on the fact that the tweaking the last few months has been more so, 'one step forward and two steps back'. The first and most important thing I look for is where the trough and ridging will set up in the continental US and the CFS has been steadfast the last couple of months on having an eastern trough and a western ridge which is what we want to see. The tweaking I am referring to though is the potential blocking (-Nao) and where it sets up as well as the ability of the pattern to deliver cold air down from the arctic and those are the things that have slipped somewhat.  This can be seen with the temp anomalies that have been steadily warning over the last month or so of runs. 

The CanSips on the other hand hasn't looked good for most of the summer. It has been locked in on a very zonal flow with hints of a central trough for the most part which is a killer for decent snow chances. And that can be seen with the blazing temp anomalies it has been throwing out. If you are rooting for snow you definitely want to hope that the CanSips does not verify.

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