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Winter 2016-2017 Speculation and Discussion

AlaskaETC

By AlaskaETC,
in Mid Atlantic

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Quit bragging Bob. It sucked big-time around here in 93/94. Several events that were supposed to start as snow with 2-4" or 3-6"+ before a changeover.  In reality,  a half an hour of snow, 4 hours of sleet, then hours of zr. Boston got around 100". Before 14/15, it was Weatherfella's favorite winter. Nuff said. And "yes", I'm still bitter! 

p.s. My best all snow event was 3".

I was in college in central PA that winter and we got something around 80". I'd be pissed if that happened to me while I live here.

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nw baltimore wx

nw baltimore wx

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Quit bragging Bob. It sucked big-time around here in 93/94. Several events that were supposed to start as snow with 2-4" or 3-6"+ before a changeover.  In reality,  a half an hour of snow, 4 hours of sleet, then hours of zr. Boston got around 100". Before 14/15, it was Weatherfella's favorite winter. Nuff said. And "yes", I'm still bitter! 

p.s. My best all snow event was 3".

Horrible winter.

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WVclimo

WVclimo

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Horrible winter.

The cold was legit that year.  And who doesn't marvel when rain is falling at 11 degrees after many hours of below zero and single digit temps ?  I would love a repeat of that winter, as its so unique among the 50+ I have experienced.

Also, I get the sentiment of those in the thread who conceive of trading Feb-Mar for a front-loaded winter.  But I think climo says those years are gonna end BN snowfall.  I will wait as long as necessary if this winter can come close to average.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Ice is far more crippling, so I guess I'll take it lol, but seriously, I agree with this. I don't know about wanting to repeat last December, but I could punt to peak climo if it means we have a real shot at an AOA winter. 

Big cold is always nice too. One of the best things about Feb 14, 2015 was the massive blast of cold and wind chills after that mega front passed. That was one of the best wx days of my life. 

I still recall  Bob's video from his garage! 

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

We were out of school for three days in MN because the wind chills on the old scale were -60 to -80.  Remember watching all of the Northridge CA earthquake coverage.

And I was home watching the earthquake coverage that week here in Montgomery County because we had the whole week off from the MLK Day ice storm followed by the historic cold (and a fluffy 2" of snow on Thursday). The brownouts and rolling blackouts coupled with emergency pleas from Pepco and other utilities forced an area-wide shutdown for cold starting 3 pm on 1/19 through 1/20 that included: federal government, schools, local governments, even restaurants and businesses. I remember that was the first time I've ever heard the Emergency Broadcast system being used for real on WTOP.

DCA recorded -4F with an afternoon high of 7F (and then a sneaky 8F high at night when clouds rolled in ahead of the snow) on the 19th.

That MLK Day storm was not the first ice event of the season (we had a messy one on 1/4) but it was the one that started the iced-over driveways and sidewalks that the subsequent ice storms maintained. The period from 1/26-2/13 was bonkers with the amount of days recording freezing rain. 

The most classic wedge event was the 1/27-1/28 one where we were falling through the low 20's and even upper teens with rain when the forecast that evening was for rising temps into the 40's. Philadelphia was 48F at 6 am on 1/28 while IAD was 26F.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Seems that the La Nina watch has been dropped. 

https://www.climate.gov/enso

And ENSO neutral conditions have a 55-60 % probability.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_sep2016/ensodisc.pdf

What a difference we are seeing from early spring ENSO predictions.

LR enso models are notoriously bad until after the spring barrier. I was pretty skeptical by mid June. Verification kept missing on the warm side and never stopped all summer. The pac has never even remotely looked like it was headed to a mod nina all summer either compared to any previous transition even though numerically it looked more favorable. 

I'm curious to see the Sept euro enso plumes when they come out this month. Half the ens members in Aug has 3.4 going into + territory by the end of Dec. 

 

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GramaxRefugee

GramaxRefugee

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

... The brownouts and rolling blackouts coupled with emergency pleas from the Pepco and other utilities forced an area-wide shutdown for cold starting 3 pm on 1/19 through 1/20 that included: federal government, schools, local governments, even restaurants and businesses. ...

I remember driving to work in Baltimore with State/Fed/schools closed; the city seemed deserted. Had to get out the battery charger to get my 78 VW to crank over. Didn't occur to me if she'd restart at QT, but it worked out.

County opened a shelter because some apartment complexes were without NG for heat.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

93/94 was way better for places nw of a sterling va to Damascus md to reisteratown line. They didn't get epic snows there either but each storm that was all ice in DC was 2-3" of snow first there with a few 4-6" ones too. Then there was a 7-9" storm early March. While the totals weren't big there was solid snowcover for a long stretch with the cold. I would take that. Of course southeast of that line was frustrating that year. I lived in Herndon and would visit my cousin in Harper's ferry each weekend and see the snowcover start between sterling and leesburgh each time. 

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

93/94 was way better for places nw of a sterling va to Damascus md to reisteratown line. They didn't get epic snows there either but each storm that was all ice in DC was 2-3" of snow first there with a few 4-6" ones too. Then there was a 7-9" storm early March. While the totals weren't big there was solid snowcover for a long stretch with the cold. I would take that. Of course southeast of that line was frustrating that year. I lived in Herndon and would visit my cousin in Harper's ferry each weekend and see the snowcover start between sterling and leesburgh each time. 

Seems like in our region, the gradient was just slightly further north/west in 93-94 than it was in 2013-14.

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

Winter 1959 to 1963 was weak Nina-Neutral, wasn't it?

 

THIS WINTER may be like that, and if so, look out! It will be COLD with some snow.

 

 

BUT FIRST............................We gotta make it thru Mid October. It will be very very warm and very humid: Read mid 70s dewpoints at times even in October in north VA.

Welcome to a La Nina autumn in Washington. Tune up those air conditioners! You're gonna need em well into next month!

 

Those of you who were asking for Washington to be warm again, YOU WILL GET YOUR WISH, and then some!!!!!

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Jebman said:

Winter 1959 to 1963 was weak Nina-Neutral, wasn't it?

 

THIS WINTER may be like that, and if so, look out! It will be COLD with some snow.

 

 

BUT FIRST............................We gotta make it thru Mid October. It will be very very warm and very humid: Read mid 70s dewpoints at times even in October in north VA.

Welcome to a La Nina autumn in Washington. Tune up those air conditioners! You're gonna need em well into next month!

 

Those of you who were asking for Washington to be warm again, YOU WILL GET YOUR WISH, and then some!!!!!

Jeb, you are correct that enso was neutral from the winter of 59/60-62/63, but the NAO was basically negative during the winter months per link below.  Otoh, we've done pretty good average-wise the last 3 years without it. Gotta believe our luck will run out, but nobody knows. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao_ts.shtml

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

I remember the ice storms of 93-94.It rained and sleeted at 17 degrees. The rain froze on contact with EVERY surface. Then sleet poured down. It accumulated to 3 inches deep. Jebwalking in it was pure JOY! then overnight it hardened to a solid glacier. I really LOVED jebwalking on that ice. Ice jebwalks are one of the finest things in life.

I casually walked on that slippery ice while people all around me fell, smashing their hips. I even danced like Michael Jackson on that ice.

 

 

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted

Georgia

  • Trenton, GA: 6"
  • Atlanta, GA: 2"

North Carolina

  • Rocky Mount, NC: 12"
  • Wilson, NC: 12"
  • Savage, NC: 9"
  • Raleigh, NC: 8"

Virginia

  • Kempsville, VA: 15"
  • Norfolk, VA: 14"
  • Yorktown, VA: 14"
  • Onley, VA: 14"
  • Richmond, VA: 6"

Maryland

  • Ocean City, MD: 14"
  • Fruitland, MD: 12"
  • Pittsville, MD: 11"

New Jersey

  • Brick, NJ: 36"
  • Edison, NJ: 32.5"
  • Elizabeth, NJ: 31.8"
  • Lyndhurst, NJ: 29"
  • Gloucester, NJ: 28.3"
  • Camden, NJ: 29.2"
  • Millburn, NJ: 23"
  • Cumberland, NJ 18"
  • Cape May, NJ: 15"

New York

  • Staten Island, NY: 29"
  • Harriman, NY: 26"
  • Brooklyn, NY: 30"
  • North Massapequa, NY: 24"
  • Hicksville, NY: 22"
  • Wantagh, NY: 22"
  • Bronx, NY: 21"
  • Flushing, NY: 21"
  • Central Park, NY: 20"
  • Yonkers, NY: 20"
  • Upton, NY: 19"
  • Newburgh, NY: 17"
  • West Islip, NY: 16"
  • Stony Brook, NY: 8"

Connecticut

  • Wilton, CT: 18"
  • North Canaan, CT: 16.5"
  • Litchfield, CT: 15"
  • Canaan, CT: 14"
  • Bradley International Airport, CT: 13.9"
  • New Milford, CT: 12"
  • Thomaston, CT: 12"
  • Norfolk, CT: 12"
  • Winchester, CT: 11"
  • Winsted, CT: 11"
  • Torrington, CT: 10"
  • Torringford, CT: 9.5"
  • Bakersville, CT: 9.2"

Massachusetts

  • Savoy, MA: 24.8"
  • Florida, MA: 24.0"
  • Hinsdale, MA: 22"
  • Williamstown, MA: 22"
  • Adams, MA: 20"
  • Alford, MA: 20"
  • Otis, MA: 20"
  • Clarksburg, MA: 19.5"
  • Pittsfield, MA: 18.5"
  • Lanesborough, MA: 18"
  • North Otis, MA: 17"
  • Becket, MA: 17"
  • Great Barrington, MA: 16.6"
  • Windsor, MA: 12"

Vermont

  • Pownal, VT: 26"
  • East Bennington, VT: 24"
  • Sunderland, VT: 24"
  • Winhall, VT: 23"
  • Woodford, VT: 23"
  • Landgrove, VT: 21.8"
  • Ball Mountain Lake, VT: 21"
  • Bennington, VT: 20"
  • North Bennington, VT: 20"
  • Dorset, VT: 14"
  • Peru, VT: 14"
  • Wardsboro, VT: 14"
  • South Newfane, VT: 13"
  • Townshed Lake, VT: 12"

Maine

  • Bangor, ME: 25"
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