franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2016 Euro control is a slightly colder version of the op. Its a better run for North ga mtns, nw SC, and the foothills. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Upstate Tiger Posted February 9, 2016 KGSP has been consistent mentioning Sunday night Monday storm. They're pretty conservative as are most NWS offices. So that tells me this bears watching closely... UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BUT WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP AS THE BASE OF TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHEAST. WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY...BUT THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/GEFS FEATURE A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH PASSAGE INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REAMPLIFIES THE WAVE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PERMITS ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHEAST MOISTURE TO DEVELOP. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ONSET AS SNOW THROUGH GIVEN THE COLD AND DRY ANTECEDENT AIR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ACROSS SE SECTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A RETURN TO SNOW PROFILES INTO TUESDAY WITH ANY LINGERING OR REDEVELOPING PRECIPITATION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO HIGH ON TIMING AND QPF...HOWEVER...FOR ANY HWO MENTION AT PRESENT. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2016 Ensembles mean is similar to previous runs with the h5 track. There are many many good hits on the ensembles for wnc and tennessee. There are a few for far north ga and nw SC. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
84 Hour NAM Posted February 9, 2016 not everybody lives in eastern north Carolina. Gfs, cmc, and euro all drop 3 to 6 inches of snow across the upstate Monday with surface temps in the 20's. You're right, not everyone is that fortunate. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Poimen Posted February 9, 2016 not everybody lives in eastern north Carolina. Gfs, cmc, and euro all drop 3 to 6 inches of snow across the upstate Monday with surface temps in the 20's. Hence the word "most" Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
toxictwister00 Posted February 9, 2016 FFC is growing confidence in a winter storm next week. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A WINTRY EVENTWILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.THE BASIS IS THE STRONG ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE WHICH SLIDES INTO THEOHIO VALLEY WHICH ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS AND EVEN THEENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE PROGGING. BOTH THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIRMEMBERS ARE PROGGING A STRONG CAD EVENT SETTING UP LATE SUNDAYINTO MONDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDEOF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND TAPPING A BIT OF GULF MOISTURE. THEBIGGEST QUESTION AND LOWEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN DETERMINING ANYPRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS POINT WHICH COULD RANGE EVERYTHING FROMAN ALL VERY COLD RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SNOW AND SLEET...WHICHALL DEPENDS ON THE TIMING...DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR...AND THE WARMNOSE. NONETHELESS. FOR NOW...LEFT EVERYTHING IN THE FORECAST AS ARAIN OR SNOW. KEEP IN MIND THAT IT LIKELY WILL CHANGE AND IS SOMETHINGTO WATCH AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER. Full Discussion below http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FFC&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 This is the Forecast for Valentines Day night/President's Day for Atlanta right now... Sunday NightA 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Washington's BirthdayA chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
griteater Posted February 9, 2016 Euro ensembles look better. Ens mean looks very similar to previous run. Only thing I noticed was that it was a touch colder at the sfc on Monday morning with the precip moving in, with slightly more damming signature then...but it warms from there Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PackGrad05 Posted February 9, 2016 the GFS bufkit gives RDU .25" of fzra sandwiched between some bursts of snow.... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PackGrad05 Posted February 9, 2016 RAH not convinced yet...but leaves open possibility for NW piedmont (which is what they mean by climatologically favored).THIS PRESENTSTHE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-LIVED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT LATE MONDAYINTO PERHAPS EARLY TUESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY FEATURE SOME P-TYPETRANSITION CONCERNS ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PIEDMONT.THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW THIS WILL PLAYOUT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURES...FOR EXAMPLE THELATEST ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD SCOURTHE COLD AIR QUICKLY...BUT ALSO PROLONG THE EVENT AND INCREASE THEAMOUNT OF RAIN WE MIGHT EXPECT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILLINTRODUCE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY AND HIGHS REACHING THEMID TO UPPER 40S. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2016 Hence the word "most"Don't mean to get in a debate with you, but this threat looks good for west Tennessee, north Georgia, upstate sc, and western nc including the foothills and most of north central nc.That encompasses more than half of this board Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Shawn Posted February 9, 2016 For my neighbors wondering, nothing really looks any good for Columbia on the EPS, Euro, Euro Para, UKMET. I gave up following the GFS, GGEM, etc. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2016 Don't mean to get in a debate with you, but this threat looks good for west Tennessee, north Georgia, upstate sc, and western nc including the foothills and most of north central nc. That encompasses more than half of this board be careful when you say north GA. I don't think this threat looks good for most of metro Atlanta. It looks good for far north GA though. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 9, 2016 Don't mean to get in a debate with you, but this threat looks good for west Tennessee, north Georgia, upstate sc, and western nc including the foothills and most of north central nc. That encompasses more than half of this board Just got to let it roll off of your back. I can't tell you how many times I read 'this storm is a bust' from down easters, as it was dumping 15" at my house on 1/22. We all want snow in our backyard. We're not all going to get it. Just look at what the models are saying for you and roll with it. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SimeonNC Posted February 9, 2016 Don't mean to get in a debate with you, but this threat looks good for west Tennessee, north Georgia, upstate sc, and western nc including the foothills and most of north central nc. That encompasses more than half of this board Is CLT counted as part of western NC? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2016 Jma is a hit for western posters. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2016 Is CLT counted as part of western NC? If I was in Charlotte I would be cautiously optimistic. Heck, this storm could wind up dumping on Macon, ga or charleston, sc for all we know. It's way to early to give up or to claim victory Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 9, 2016 Is CLT counted as part of western NC? I consider it Central NC. Anyone in the 828 is what I consider WNC. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2016 For my neighbors wondering, nothing really looks any good for Columbia on the EPS, Euro, Euro Para, UKMET. I gave up following the GFS, GGEM, etc. Cold rain is the theme of the day I did just see a very small flizzard on the way home though. Jma is a hit for western posters. Congrats to Seattle Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2016 FWIW, the eps snowfall mean has moved the 2 inch mean snowfall line south and east on it's last 4 consecutive runs. It now has the 2 inch line running from just north of Athens, GA to Anderson, SC to Charlotte to Greensboro. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frazdaddy Posted February 9, 2016 FWIW, the eps snowfall mean has moved the 2 inch mean snowfall line south and east on it's last 4 consecutive runs. It now has the 2 inch line running from just north of Athens, GA to Anderson, SC to Charlotte to Greensboro. This storm has a lot of evolution still to go. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2016 12z PARA GFS is a solid 2 to 4 inch snow hit for North GA and Upstate SC on Monday afternoon with subfreezing surface temps. Edit: Actually this is the 12z operational.... my mistake! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pcbjr Posted February 9, 2016 I truly wish all of you a bit north of me some goodness out of this!!!!! Watching with envy. I get a bit concerned after next week unless we get some blocking to establish; indicies are not prime. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2016 Given the magnitude of the true arctic air in place, it will be exceedingly hard to scour out and/or warm up. Freezing rain will help move the process along, but if that high hangs on a bit longer, or a meso high develops, it could be an all frozen event for more than just the western zones...all that is assuming that there is precipitation and that said precipitation doesn't delay too long in arriving. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
griteater Posted February 9, 2016 12z PARA GFS is a solid 2 to 4 inch snow hit for North GA and Upstate SC on Monday afternoon with subfreezing surface temps. burrel - I believe that's the reg GFS, but check that....I only see 06z GFS Para out Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CherokeeGA Posted February 9, 2016 Just got to let it roll off of your back. I can't tell you how many times I read 'this storm is a bust' from down easters, as it was dumping 15" at my house on 1/22. We all want snow in our backyard. We're not all going to get it. Just look at what the models are saying for you and roll with it. Honestly IMHO it's a sure sign that the subforum covers too much territory. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2016 burrel - I believe that's the reg GFS, but check that....I only see 06z GFS Para out Ahh, You're right.. Well the 12z regular GFS is a solid hit then! LOL Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
griteater Posted February 9, 2016 Ahh, You're right.. Well the 12z regular GFS is a solid hit then! LOL I predict happy hour 18z will be better, lol Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CaryWx Posted February 9, 2016 Given the magnitude of the true arctic air in place, it will be exceedingly hard to scour out and/or warm up. Freezing rain will help move the process along, but if that high hangs on a bit longer, or a meso high develops, it could be an all frozen event for more than just the western zones...all that is assuming that there is precipitation and that said precipitation doesn't delay too long in arriving. With respect to the Triangle Is it the path of the SLP (sound rider through NC?) that is the problem or just lack of CAA? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2016 Gfs looks to be digging a Little more early on in the Rockies. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DeepSouthSC Posted February 9, 2016 Honestly IMHO it's a sure sign that the subforum covers too much territory. You may have a point. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites