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TARHEELPROGRAMMER

February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

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KGSP has been consistent mentioning Sunday night Monday storm. They're pretty conservative as are most NWS offices. So that tells me this bears watching closely...

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN

UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BUT WITH MODEL

DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP AS THE BASE OF TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHEAST.

WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF

THIS SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY...BUT THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

NIGHT. THE GFS/GEFS FEATURE A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH PASSAGE INTO

TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REAMPLIFIES THE WAVE WEST OF THE

APPALACHIANS. THIS PERMITS ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHEAST MOISTURE TO

DEVELOP. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ONSET AS SNOW THROUGH GIVEN THE

COLD AND DRY ANTECEDENT AIR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME

CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ACROSS SE SECTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY

AFTERNOON BEFORE A RETURN TO SNOW PROFILES INTO TUESDAY WITH ANY

LINGERING OR REDEVELOPING PRECIPITATION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO

HIGH ON TIMING AND QPF...HOWEVER...FOR ANY HWO MENTION AT PRESENT.

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Ensembles mean is similar to previous runs with the h5 track. There are many many good hits on the ensembles for wnc and tennessee. There are a few for far north ga and nw SC.

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not everybody lives in eastern north Carolina. Gfs, cmc, and euro all drop 3 to 6 inches of snow across the upstate Monday with surface temps in the 20's.

 

You're right, not everyone is that fortunate.

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not everybody lives in eastern north Carolina. Gfs, cmc, and euro all drop 3 to 6 inches of snow across the upstate Monday with surface temps in the 20's.

Hence the word "most"

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FFC is growing confidence in a winter storm next week.

 

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A WINTRY EVENT
WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
.
THE BASIS IS THE STRONG ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE WHICH SLIDES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WHICH ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS AND EVEN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE PROGGING. BOTH THE GFS...ECMWF AND THEIR
MEMBERS ARE PROGGING A STRONG CAD EVENT SETTING UP LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LONG WAVE TROF AND TAPPING A BIT OF GULF MOISTURETHE
BIGGEST QUESTION AND LOWEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN DETERMINING ANY
PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS POINT WHICH COULD RANGE EVERYTHING FROM
AN ALL VERY COLD RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SNOW AND SLEET
...WHICH
ALL DEPENDS ON THE TIMING...DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR...AND THE WARM
NOSE. NONETHELESS. FOR NOW...LEFT EVERYTHING IN THE FORECAST AS A
RAIN OR SNOW. KEEP IN MIND THAT IT LIKELY WILL CHANGE AND IS SOMETHING
TO WATCH AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

 

Full Discussion below

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FFC&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

This is the Forecast for Valentines Day night/President's Day for Atlanta right now...

Sunday NightA 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.
Washington's BirthdayA chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

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Euro ensembles look better.

Ens mean looks very similar to previous run.  Only thing I noticed was that it was a touch colder at the sfc on Monday morning with the precip moving in, with slightly more damming signature then...but it warms from there

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RAH not convinced yet...but leaves open possibility for NW piedmont (which is what they mean by climatologically favored)
.THIS PRESENTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-LIVED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT LATE MONDAY
INTO PERHAPS EARLY TUESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY FEATURE SOME P-TYPE
TRANSITION CONCERNS ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PIEDMONT.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW THIS WILL PLAY
OUT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURES...FOR EXAMPLE THE
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD SCOUR
THE COLD AIR QUICKLY...BUT ALSO PROLONG THE EVENT AND INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN WE MIGHT EXPECT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL
INTRODUCE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY AND HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

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Hence the word "most"

Don't mean to get in a debate with you, but this threat looks good for west Tennessee, north Georgia, upstate sc, and western nc including the foothills and most of north central nc.

That encompasses more than half of this board

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For my neighbors wondering, nothing really looks any good for Columbia on the EPS, Euro, Euro Para, UKMET.  I gave up following the GFS, GGEM, etc.  

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Don't mean to get in a debate with you, but this threat looks good for west Tennessee, north Georgia, upstate sc, and western nc including the foothills and most of north central nc.

That encompasses more than half of this board

be careful when you say north GA. I don't think this threat looks good for most of metro Atlanta. It looks good for far north GA though.

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Don't mean to get in a debate with you, but this threat looks good for west Tennessee, north Georgia, upstate sc, and western nc including the foothills and most of north central nc.

That encompasses more than half of this board

 

Just got to let it roll off of your back. I can't tell you how many times I read 'this storm is a bust' from down easters, as it was dumping 15" at my house on 1/22. We all want snow in our backyard. We're not all going to get it. Just look at what the models are saying for you and roll with it.

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Don't mean to get in a debate with you, but this threat looks good for west Tennessee, north Georgia, upstate sc, and western nc including the foothills and most of north central nc.

That encompasses more than half of this board

 

 

Is CLT counted as part of western NC?

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Is CLT counted as part of western NC?

If I was in Charlotte I would be cautiously optimistic. Heck, this storm could wind up dumping on Macon, ga or charleston, sc for all we know. It's way to early to give up or to claim victory

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For my neighbors wondering, nothing really looks any good for Columbia on the EPS, Euro, Euro Para, UKMET.  I gave up following the GFS, GGEM, etc.  

Cold rain is the theme of the day  :)    I did just see a very small flizzard on the way home though.   :lol: 

 

Jma is a hit for western posters.

Congrats to Seattle  :P  

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FWIW, the eps snowfall mean has moved the 2 inch mean snowfall line south and east on it's last 4 consecutive runs. It now has the 2 inch line running from just north of Athens, GA to Anderson, SC to Charlotte to Greensboro.

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FWIW, the eps snowfall mean has moved the 2 inch mean snowfall line south and east on it's last 4 consecutive runs. It now has the 2 inch line running from just north of Athens, GA to Anderson, SC to Charlotte to Greensboro.

This storm has a lot of evolution still to go.

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12z PARA GFS is a solid 2 to 4 inch snow hit for North GA and Upstate SC on Monday afternoon with subfreezing surface temps.

 

Edit: Actually this is the 12z operational.... my mistake!

post-309-0-85508100-1455052681_thumb.gif

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I truly wish all of you a bit north of me some goodness out of this!!!!!

 

Watching with envy.

 

I get a bit concerned after next week unless we get some blocking to establish; indicies are not prime.

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Given the magnitude of the true arctic air in place, it will be exceedingly hard to scour out and/or warm up.  Freezing rain will help move the process along, but if that high hangs on a bit longer, or a meso high develops, it could be an all frozen event for more than just the western zones...all that is assuming that there is precipitation and that said precipitation doesn't delay too long in arriving.

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Just got to let it roll off of your back. I can't tell you how many times I read 'this storm is a bust' from down easters, as it was dumping 15" at my house on 1/22. We all want snow in our backyard. We're not all going to get it. Just look at what the models are saying for you and roll with it.

 

Honestly IMHO it's a sure sign that the subforum covers too much territory.

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burrel - I believe that's the reg GFS, but check that....I only see 06z GFS Para out

 

Ahh,

 

You're right.. Well the 12z regular GFS is a solid hit then! LOL

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Given the magnitude of the true arctic air in place, it will be exceedingly hard to scour out and/or warm up.  Freezing rain will help move the process along, but if that high hangs on a bit longer, or a meso high develops, it could be an all frozen event for more than just the western zones...all that is assuming that there is precipitation and that said precipitation doesn't delay too long in arriving.

 

With respect to the Triangle Is it the path of the SLP (sound rider through NC?) that is the problem or just lack of CAA?

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