LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Another great run for ATL and north Georgia. A solid 4+" for metro ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 How does NC look on those models? Try this site out and take a look: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Otherwise, pay attention to interstate references. Armed with only a slight knowledge of geography, it's pretty easy to tell what all the major models have said overnight by reading the posts above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Another great run for ATL and north Georgia. A solid 4+" for metro ATL. What are you exactly looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Special thanks to all of those updating us on the Euro Suite of modeling. It's hard to believe that we can't have better access to the best weather models on the planet. I signed up for Americanwx models for the winter, but I guess I should have signed up for Weatherbell. Lesson learned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Wright-Weather.com @MikeWDross 18m18 minutes ago Still a long way out, but potential for #ice across the Carolina's, North Georgia early next week. @JimCantore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Otherwise, pay attention to interstate references. Armed with only a slight knowledge of geography, it's pretty easy to tell what all the major models have said overnight by reading the posts above. very good advice for weather enthusiast. Very knowledgeable posters here! Thanks all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Something I hadn't noticed before, but the models do all seem to want to develop a quasi -NAO for this time frame with some ridging in the North Atlantic reaching up into Greenland...trapping the PV somewhat in the NE. Perhaps that ridging may trend stronger keeping the PV south and keeping us colder? HM tweeted about it and I didn't notice it until now. It's not strong by any means but maybe it'll work. It seems like it's been trending the opposite direction so far though. #wishcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 and of course the 0z Euro op joins the ukmet. I will say that the majority of the Euro ensembles agree with previous op runs and not the cutter. Not gonna lie, that was a huge kick in the... At 5h, it looked like the Euro Op was in between the UKMet and GFS/CMC camps. At the sfc, it was closer to the end result of the UKMet of north and warmer as it amped up too strong at the last minute. 00z Euro Para was both flatter and colder than the 00z Euro Op with the NE vortex moving out quicker on the Op. Latest GFS Para similar to Euro Para. French model looks good with the sfc high at 102, with Pac wave setup not in the UKMet camp (image below) 06z GFS has that weak, light QPF look again. I don't know here....probably give a slight lean to the more amped, warmer solution in the end, because that's how things roll a lot of times, and also, the speed of the storm has slowed a bit...but only a slight lean...lot of moving parts with the handling of the Pac to central US trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Really interested in the Euro para since it's the only Euro we're going to have soon. It's been pretty accurate, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 At 5h, it looked like the Euro Op was in between the UKMet and GFS/CMC camps. At the sfc, it was closer to the end result of the UKMet of north and warmer as it amped up too strong at the last minute. 00z Euro Para was both flatter and colder than the 00z Euro Op with the NE vortex moving out quicker on the Op. Latest GFS Para similar to Euro Para. French model looks good with the sfc high at 102, with Pac wave setup not in the UKMet camp (image below) 06z GFS has that weak, light QPF look again. I don't know here....probably give a slight lean to the more amped, warmer solution in the end, because that's how things roll a lot of times, and also, the speed of the storm has slowed a bit...but only a slight lean...lot of moving parts with the handling of the Pac to central US trough. all three ensembles means are in good agreement with the upper low track and not implying a cutter. Infact, they look similar to last night's para. Unfortunately outlier cutter solutions seem to work out a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 What are you exactly looking at? GFS has consistently shown a winter event on Sunday evening through Monday for north Georgia over the last couple of days. Could be a mixed bag but ATL is included in the event. JMO reading the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Really interested in the Euro para since it's the only Euro we're going to have soon. It's been the most accurate, too. FYP. Not a wishcast- just hard truth. I don't know where to access it, but people have posted pictures of graphs showing model forecast accuracy, and the Euro Parallel has come out on top. This doesn't guarantee it has the right idea, but it has been (from my observations) much more consistent with its track than other models have been. Definitely has potential for being a good storm in our area, we just need to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 all three ensembles means are in good agreement with the upper low track and not implying a cutter. Infact, they look similar to last night's para. Unfortunately outlier cutter solutions seem to work out a lot. Yep, that pretty much sums it up. Could go either way. The low level baroclinic zone is going to be draped W to E across the deep south, so a more southerly track would make sense as long as the wave doesn't go bonkers. Looks like the 06z GFS Para is rolling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Something I hadn't noticed before, but the models do all seem to want to develop a quasi -NAO for this time frame with some ridging in the North Atlantic reaching up into Greenland...trapping the PV somewhat in the NE. Perhaps that ridging may trend stronger keeping the PV south and keeping us colder? HM tweeted about it and I didn't notice it until now. It's not strong by any means but maybe it'll work. It seems like it's been trending the opposite direction so far though. #wishcast Using Allan's AmWx trend loop feature on the GEFS, there has been little change for the NE vortex and any Greenland ridging to it's northeast over the past 3 runs. Have the Para EPS ran yet? If so, how do they look? Thanks! Has yet to update on Vista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Yep, that pretty much sums it up. Could go either way. The low level baroclinic zone is going to be draped W to E across the deep south, so a more southerly track would make sense as long as the wave doesn't go bonkers. Looks like the 06z GFS Para is rolling now. Has anyone seen the verification numbers on the GFS Para??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Raleigh's overnight write up ARCTIC HIGH WILL RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ONMONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRALPLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTOTHE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-TUESDAY. WITH ANTECEDENT ARCTICAIRMASS IN PLACE...STRONG WAA ALOFT INTO A INSITU WEDGE WOULD RESULTIN MIXED P-TYPE CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT...WITH EARLYINDICATORS THAT THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREA NW PIEDMONT COULDSEE A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NC SHOULDCLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Yep, that pretty much sums it up. Could go either way. The low level baroclinic zone is going to be draped W to E across the deep south, so a more southerly track would make sense as long as the wave doesn't go bonkers. Looks like the 06z GFS Para is rolling now.I think the key today is seeing where the ukie is. Gfs as usual will be late to the party as it's out of step with its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Using Allan's AmWx trend loop feature on the GEFS, there has been little change for the NE vortex and any Greenland ridging to it's northeast over the past 3 runs. Has yet to update on Vista yesterday's 12z has a similar look to other global ensembles, probably more of an I 95 as it's a little deeper farther west. Yesterday's 12z para was really amped tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Do we want the Friday system to ramp up and head NW to serve as a 50/50 low to hold in our HP, or will that slow down the onset of precip for the big system that we are trying to get in here earlier??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Para Euro doesnt drop much snow in CLT but does probably drop either a lot of sleet or freezing rain across the metro with snow in the catawba valley and up further northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Wright-Weather.com @MikeWDross 18m18 minutes ago Still a long way out, but potential for #ice across the Carolina's, North Georgia early next week. @JimCantore guess everything west of the freezing rain will be snow, its just cold enough plus its hard to push the cold air out that is that deep and firmly entrenched. read any where from 5 to 11 inches for the mtns.of nc, n. ga. and the extreme upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The canadian has always performed well with damming. It is also, by far, the coldest model at the surface. we start off at 23/3 on Monday 12z and never get any higher than the mid 20s region west of roughly highway 73 in NC and into the upstate of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Fwiw and not much, but the dgex does not have a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The canadian has always performed well with damming. It is also, by far, the coldest model at the surface. we start off at 23/3 on Monday 12z and never get any higher than the mid 20s region west of roughly highway 73 in NC and into the upstate of SC. Here are the Charlotte numbers on the Euro Para... Mon 12z: 24/-1 Mon 18z: 30/13 Tues 00z: 30/23 Tues 06z: 27/27 Tues 12z: 29/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 How does GSO look? I'm going there this weekend and I might stay there Monday http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47772-february-midlong-range-winter-discussion/?p=3972956 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Here are the Charlotte numbers on the Euro Para... Mon 12z: 24/-1 Mon 18z: 30/13 Tues 00z: 30/23 Tues 06z: 27/27 Tues 12z: 29/29 I remember we all thought the canadian was out in left field for the last event with such cold temps at the surface. It'll be interesting to see if it verifies again as we move forward. Those are decent cold numbers on the para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I remember we all thought the canadian was out in left field for the last event with such cold temps at the surface. It'll be interesting to see if it verifies again as we move forward. Those are decent cold numbers on the para. I still think an amplified cutter is not the best solution here. A wall-to-wall winter storm for most of the SE? That might be pushing it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Using Allan's AmWx trend loop feature on the GEFS, there has been little change for the NE vortex and any Greenland ridging to it's northeast over the past 3 runs. Has yet to update on Vista Yeah, recently it hasn't changed much. But it has from earlier runs, trending more to the north. The Sunday EURO is below for the time period in question...that PV is really stuck far south in Maine! Now it's north of that into SE Canada. That's when this storm was loaded with potential...now I just don't know. Just a wish cast that the ridging gets stronger and the PV drifts a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Gfs para coming in more amped. Not sure if it will cut with the trough still positively tilted. It doesn't cut but it's really amped,and runs up 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Yeah, recently it hasn't changed much. But it has from earlier runs, trending more to the north. The Sunday EURO is below for the time period in question...that PV is really stuck far south in Maine! Now it's north of that into SE Canada. That's when this storm was loaded with potential...now I just don't know. Just a wish cast that the ridging gets stronger and the PV drifts a bit further south. Yeah, agree, was just looking at the Euro Ens runs...the NE vortex has trended farther NE, but has settled down in last 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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