HWY316wx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 For cad regions 850 temps are right where bad ice accumulations occur. ...scorching they are not..unless you are referring to snow chances. Those negative dew points up in the Carolina's tell me all I need to know about how serious this high pressure is. Maybe the CAD will be deep enough for sleet and not ZR? That would be a whale of a ZR storm if it was not IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 It's interesting that the ukmet and Euro are so different. The euro almost completely flattens out the pacific wave once it comes ashore. The ukmet really keeps it rolling and drops it south into texas. I think we need to be rooting for a flatter wave as the ukmet solution leads to a phased bomb over the mississippi river valley. The ukmet is on it's own with this idea. (though several GFS ensemble members have been showing this) Looks like the Euro will be the tiebreaker so to speak - does it lean toward more amped UKMet, or flatter CMC/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Ouch, Canadian ZR maps aren't pretty. Brick, how does 0.50-0.75 sound through hour 150? CLT. small amount of snow, then sleetfest, some zr CAE. 0.50 ZR or so. ATL. looks like ZR 0.33 or so? GSP. sleetfest maybe some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 WxSouth / Robert spoke of a pseudo / mesoscale high that remains in NW NC and another in C PA after the main high scoots out. Says that this may cause CAD and cold to remain during most of the duration of this storm. Talking about DP being extremely low and hard to overcome to warmth, and this type of system generally arrives quite earlier than modeled. But does say, of course, too early to tell, but is his thinking ATM. This is a pay sight, so did not want to C&P, but thought it was OK just to throw a couple of his thoughts to the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 WPC thinks the UKMet is out of phase with the other models (this was written at 1149 tonight)...my guess is that the Euro will be closer to the GFS and CMC....I'm out, goodnight DEEPER LARGE SCALE TROF APPROACHING NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: 00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BLENDCONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGERUN TO RUN ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TREND AWAYFROM A PRONOUNCED TROF ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTOSATURDAY BUT A FILLING ONE TRENDING FLATTER AND FASTER WITH EACH12HR CYCLE. THIS IS GENERALLY LEAD BY ECMWF OPERATIONAL LAGGEDSLIGHTLY BY THE ECENS MEAN. THE GFS/GEFS WERE SLOWEST TO TRENDTHIS WAY BUT HAVE CONSIDERABLY FLATTENED WITH TIME TO HAVE FAIRLYGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CMCE/CMC UKMET AND NAM WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF MAY BE A SHADE TOO AGGRESSIVE AS THELEADING PORTION OF THE WAVE IS VERY EFFECTIVE (PERHAPS TOOEFFECTIVE) IN DAMPENING THE WELL ESTABLISHED WESTERN RIDGEALLOWING IT TO BE GENERALLY FAST ACROSS HIGH PLAINS IN LEE OF THENORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ASCENT/QPF. ALL OTHER MODELS TO DAMPEN THERIDGE BUT ONLY THE 12Z CMC WAS AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE 12ZECMWF...THIS INCLUDES THE 12Z ECENS MEAN. THE 12Z UKMET IS MOSTAMPLIFIED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT QUICKLY MOVES OUTOF PHASE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE INTO DAY 4 WITH A STRONGLY AMPLIFIEDTROF...MAKING IT LESS DESIRABLE. THE 00Z GFS DID TREND A BIT MOREAMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE BUT BRINGS THE KICKER/BACK EDGE OF THEBROADER WAVE INTO THE NORTHWEST IN GOOD TIMING OF THE ECMWF. THE00Z NAM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS BUT LESS AMPLIFIED. THESE ARESUPPORTED BY THE GEFS. TO BEST REPRESENT THESE MORE FAVORABLEMEANS WILL BLEND THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AT AVERAGECONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 00z Euro is almost a carbon copy with the high dropping in (1044 weaking to 1040mb) as the 12z run by 00z Saturday. We'll see where she goes. - High may be a tad faster trying to slide out.. wave more consolidated. - Not feeling this run so far. - Stronger low vs 12z over AR/LA/West MS. Might be light snow in parts of NC on start (not looking at 2m) - Instead of on the Gulf coast by 00z Tuesday, the low is well inland over MS, West AL, TN. 850s retreating to North-Central NC. - Looks to cut the low up through TN. Guess the UKMET might not be nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 That northern stream energy is stronger and kicking that HP's @$$ and it's scooting out quick. Our system is stronger, slower AND further north in TX...probably shouldn't have stayed up for this one. EDIT: Yep, going to bed before this one even finishes. Looks to end up an Apps runner lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Freezing drizzle, IP, light snow for CAD areas to start.. North of ATL. Retreats quickly through NW NC with light precip... Nothing major on the Winter side. Euro and UKMET say no. This one's most likely over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 And a high of 70 all next weekend for me Getting close to busting all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 00z Euro is almost a carbon copy with the high dropping in (1044 weaking to 1040mb) as the 12z run by 00z Saturday. We'll see where she goes. - High may be a tad faster trying to slide out.. wave more consolidated. - Not feeling this run so far. - Stronger low vs 12z over AR/LA/West MS. Might be light snow in parts of NC on start (not looking at 2m) - Instead of on the Gulf coast by 00z Tuesday, the low is well inland over MS, West AL, TN. 850s retreating to North-Central NC. - Looks to cut the low up through TN. Guess the UKMET might not be nuts. don't think it can cut up with that strong of a high pressure, something doesn't sound right, better wait on the next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 don't think it can cut up with that strong of a high pressure, something doesn't sound right, better wait on the next run I just snagged this from another forum.. but this says a lot: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Could be the Euros bias of holding stj energy back , therefore allowing the northern stream lp to catch, pull it north and phase. Hopefully, that's what's going on with the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Could be the Euros bias of holding stj energy back , therefore allowing the northern stream lp to catch, pull it north and phase. Hopefully, that's what's going on with the 0z run. I'd be more on board with that idea except the fact the Euro and UKMET have consistently been trending away after having an event to start versus the GFS & Canadian getting on board for one after they let go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Will have to see what future runs bring, but the EPS has a low over Mobile Alabama at hour 144 vs the OP having it over Southeast Kentucky at the same time. Quite a spread there for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 WPC thinks the UKMet is out of phase with the other models (this was written at 1149 tonight)...my guess is that the Euro will be closer to the GFS and CMC....I'm out, goodnight DEEPER LARGE SCALE TROF APPROACHING NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BLEND CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE RUN TO RUN ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TREND AWAY FROM A PRONOUNCED TROF ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT A FILLING ONE TRENDING FLATTER AND FASTER WITH EACH 12HR CYCLE. THIS IS GENERALLY LEAD BY ECMWF OPERATIONAL LAGGED SLIGHTLY BY THE ECENS MEAN. THE GFS/GEFS WERE SLOWEST TO TREND THIS WAY BUT HAVE CONSIDERABLY FLATTENED WITH TIME TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CMCE/CMC UKMET AND NAM WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF MAY BE A SHADE TOO AGGRESSIVE AS THE LEADING PORTION OF THE WAVE IS VERY EFFECTIVE (PERHAPS TOO EFFECTIVE) IN DAMPENING THE WELL ESTABLISHED WESTERN RIDGE ALLOWING IT TO BE GENERALLY FAST ACROSS HIGH PLAINS IN LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ASCENT/QPF. ALL OTHER MODELS TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE BUT ONLY THE 12Z CMC WAS AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE 12Z ECMWF...THIS INCLUDES THE 12Z ECENS MEAN. THE 12Z UKMET IS MOST AMPLIFIED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF PHASE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE INTO DAY 4 WITH A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED TROF...MAKING IT LESS DESIRABLE. THE 00Z GFS DID TREND A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE BUT BRINGS THE KICKER/BACK EDGE OF THE BROADER WAVE INTO THE NORTHWEST IN GOOD TIMING OF THE ECMWF. THE 00Z NAM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS BUT LESS AMPLIFIED. THESE ARE SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS. TO BEST REPRESENT THESE MORE FAVORABLE MEANS WILL BLEND THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. and of course the 0z Euro op joins the ukmet. I will say that the majority of the Euro ensembles agree with previous op runs and not the cutter. Not gonna lie, that was a huge kick in the... Still waiting on the Euro para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Will have to see what future runs bring, but the EPS has a low over Mobile Alabama at hour 144 vs the OP having it over Southeast Kentucky at the same time. Quite a spread there for some reason.Yeah, eps does not support the op run, so that still gives some hope, for those who want something wintry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The 6z GFS will save us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 6z GEFS looks better to me. A little colder and drier. I think there may be less cutters in the members. It seems like this may be an instance where we don't want a true Miller A. It takes too long for the energy to dip down to the gulf and we lose the cold air. Also, the storm gets too wrapped up in a Miller A scenario and cuts too far inland for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Great video by Matthew East this morning to get you caught up on the overnight runs. Hope for the cliff jumpers not to hug the UKMET and Operational Euro too! Take a look! http://www.twcnews.com/nc/triad/weather.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 6Z GFS looks like snow/fzra/snow for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 6Z GFS looks like snow/fzra/snow for RDU With around "2 of snow; which would be the highest totals for anybody in the SE. Needless to say, not a strong storm. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=06&fhour=156¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Not strong by any means, but with antecedent cold temperatures and ground, could be high impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Not strong by any means, but with antecedent cold temperatures and ground, could be high impact. I agree. Ironically, a week storm is probably what we want for our area. Other models with stronger storms pull too much warm air in. So really the 6z GFS could be close to RDU's best solution. edit: Not really a week storm but a storm that is more suppressed. 48 hour qpf totals(Wintery precip would be confined to the north/west edges): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=06&fhour=162¶meter=PCPIN&level=48&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Euro para has a weak Miller a. Good run for North of I 20 in ga and nort of 85 in sc, and NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Yes, most of the Euro suite outside of it's op was pretty snowy for N/NE Ga/Western NC and points west. Para drops 2-5 across far N Georgia heading towards 10 in the NE Ga mountains, across far upstate SC and into SW NC with 2-6 plus from I-85 east towards the mountains with the higher totals towards the foothills and mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Euro para has a weak Miller a. Good run for North of I 20 in ga and nort of 85 in sc, and NC Makes me think that the op Euro/UKMET may be wrong, especially since (correct me if I'm wrong) the Euro Para has been more consistent with this sort of solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Euro para has a weak Miller a. Good run for North of I 20 in ga and nort of 85 in sc, and NC Franklin, it isn't updated on Stormvista, do you have a link? Does the PARA have it coming up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Just to sum up the overnight runs for the Upstate: CMC,Para Euro, and Para GFS are major hits OP GFS is a decent hit Ukmet and OP Euro are misses, (not 100% sure on the ukmet with crappy maps, could be some front end snow/freezing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Franklin, it isn't updated on Stormvista, do you have a link? Does the PARA have it coming up the coast? It climbs to the coast but warms significantly. The cold air erodes away and it looks like rain for all the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Just to sum up the overnight runs for the Upstate: CMC,Para Euro, and Para GFS are major hits OP GFS is a decent hit Ukmet and OP Euro are misses, (not 100% sure on the ukmet with crappy maps, could be some front end snow/freezing) The EPS control and mean are also good north/west of 85 in the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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