mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Nice! Looks like we might get our first Miller A in a long time! As long as I see snow for more than a hour i'm happy Agree! Obviously , the earlier Sunday overnight into Monday we can get precip our way, the better! And let's not forget the finger/band of precip , that almost always precedes the main system in these setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 12z euro trying to throw back some light snow for the friday/sat event the nam was hinting at. makes it just e of rdu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 You mean to tell me we are tracking a wave that looks like this? (From 12z Euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 You mean to tell me we are tracking a wave that looks like this? (From 12z Euro) Ouch. That does look pretty insignificant. And north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Wave looks weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Ouch. That does look pretty insignificant. And north... Wave looks weaker. lol, it looks like it's going to end up pretty good...instead of lead wave amping up, it evolves into more of a broad large trough across the central U.S. Nice overrunning into a cold high over the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yeah, Euro sounds like it might actually be better this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 lol, it looks like it's going to end up pretty good...instead of lead wave amping up, it evolves into more of a broad large trough across the central U.S. Nice overrunning into a cold high over the NEWeak miller A+ super cold= Jan 88' the sequel ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Those ZR maps above is what I was afraid of for many people. Here's a bit of info for those who haven't been following... Yesterdays 12z Euro had an ice event basically like the Canadian just did down this way. The 00z Euro was warmer. Euro coming soon and will be interesting in about 30-45 minutes or so. I love winter weather, but do not want a lot of ZR. This last storm storm was supposed to be a major ice event, but thankfully we got sleet instead. The I-85 corridor is LONG overdue for a major ice storm though. The last really major one was all the way back in 2005, except around the triad, which got hit hard in March 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 850 ends up warming quite a bit....but cold sfc in typical CAD areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Even sfc warms in CAD areas at 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Well, ends up being worst it sounds like. Too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 New Euro very interesting. As stated above, the first wave dies, but still a decent trough coming through. Really good CAD signature, and this will be a very cold HP. For me taking the Euro at face value looks like some snow changing to rain, but the CAD may keep temps colder than this shows. Not a good run for anyone east of the NC/SC mountains though....EDIT: remember this is quite a shift from the previous run, the Ukie is massively different that the other models, this is still in a high state of flux.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Columbia avoids an ice storm on the 12z Euro. Wouldn't surprised to see very light snow, sleet on the very front end before it transitions over to a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 New Euro very interesting. As stated above, the first wave dies, but still a decent trough coming through. Really good CAD signature, and this will be a very cold HP. For me taking the Euro at face value looks like some snow changing to rain, but the CAD may keep temps colder than this shows. Not a good run for anyone east of the NC/SC mountains though....EDIT: remember this is quite a shift from the previous run, the Ukie is massively different that the other models, this is still in a high state of flux.... Sums it up well Cheez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 New Euro very interesting. As stated above, the first wave dies, but still a decent trough coming through. Really good CAD signature, and this will be a very cold HP. For me taking the Euro at face value looks like some snow changing to rain, but the CAD may keep temps colder than this shows. Not a good run for anyone east of the NC/SC mountains though....EDIT: remember this is quite a shift from the previous run, the Ukie is massively different that the other models, this is still in a high state of flux.... If it's CAD the areas in the immediate Lee of the apps should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 If it is already borderline...snow changing to rain, then that doesn't give me great hope. Usually in these events, that indicates more rain than anything... And I understand the HP and strength of the arctic air could play a factor...but I think the cold air erodes too fast in this case. Still lots of runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Even sfc warms in CAD areas at 162Isn't it a model bias to underestimate the strength and cold of the wedge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Runs the low through South ga then up 95. That's a great track for the mtns and Tenn. Surface low running inland would erode any cad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This is quite a cold airmass and strong high- Euro shows -35C at 850mb in the NE Saturday night, almost -30 to the NYC area. That type of air will be very hard to dislodge especially given how weak the LP is as it crosses south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Well, It seems like at this point at least every model is now showing a storm. Now we just have to nail down a track and timing. Edit: The Euro is giving Northeast GA and Upstate SC 2 to 6 inches of snow on the front end Monday morning before switching to sleet/freezing. The key is gonna be cashing in on the lead band of precip with the initial surge of warm air advection. If that band sets up to your north, mid level temps will be too warm for snow before more significant precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This is quite a cold airmass and strong high- Euro shows -35C at 850mb in the NE Saturday night, almost -30 to the NYC area. That type of air will be very hard to dislodge especially given how weak the LP is as it crosses south of here. You'd think the track would be forced further South since it's weak. That's very cold air, and more than sufficient to get the Southeast a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The 12z Canadian Ensemble is significantly worse than the 0z. Warmer aloft and all of the key features are north of the earlier run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Regardless of what happens with this system, it is going to be followed by quite a torch, Euro has 65F here by Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Well, that went to crap quick. Trends flipping from good to bad today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Meh, I think this one is going down the drain folks IMO. REALLY thought we had a nice setup to keep the high in place this time. No models show that anymore. Front end mixed bag seems like the best case scenerio here. Dang, let's hope the ridge builds end of next week and we get one more chance late February. Come on up this way for the storm. I'll put an extra pot of coffee on Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Isn't it a model bias to underestimate the strength and cold of the wedge! Could be, but it's not classic damming...i.e. the sfc high is working off the NE coast during the storm. As Cheez said, a whole lot to resolve with the overall wave and timing. The 'ace in the hole' here for wintry precip is the high and arctic airmass - I'm sure its strength will evolve as we get closer as well - may not show as cold at go time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 New Euro very interesting. As stated above, the first wave dies, but still a decent trough coming through. Really good CAD signature, and this will be a very cold HP. For me taking the Euro at face value looks like some snow changing to rain, but the CAD may keep temps colder than this shows. Not a good run for anyone east of the NC/SC mountains though....EDIT: remember this is quite a shift from the previous run, the Ukie is massively different that the other models, this is still in a high state of flux.... Agreed..the euro is a major ice storm for north ga and carolinas....as the warming it shows after dropping into the 20s is almost a lock not to be right. Long ways off but it would be quite the winter storm at face value..with amounts between 1 and 1.5 inches liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 There could be a brief warmup after next Monday/Tuesday but then a recharge of the cold air.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I love winter weather, but do not want a lot of ZR. This last storm storm was supposed to be a major ice event, but thankfully we got sleet instead. The I-85 corridor is LONG overdue for a major ice storm though. The last really major one was all the way back in 2005, except around the triad, which got hit hard in March 2013. Agreed! Don't need to see anyone lose power, trees and even lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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