Shawn Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Euro so far coming in faster and stronger with the early week wave versus 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Meh, looks like a low pops over Illinois and Kentucky area. Warmer. Off she goes to the North. Precip along the South, but cold air is gone for the most part... maybe starts out as some frozen stuff in Northern Georgia, NC, Upstate, Mountains. Yep, not gonna work out for most like we had hoped. Maybe the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The frozen stuff looks to be around the tip of NE SC, NC Mountains, North Georgia.. maybe over to Asheville or so. Congrats to the NE getting a good hit. Such a drastic change from the Euro in one run is a bad sign I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The frozen stuff looks to be around the tip of NE SC, NC Mountains, North Georgia.. maybe over to Asheville or so. Congrats to the NE getting a good hit. Such a drastic change from the Euro in one run is a bad sign I'd say. Lol it's one run. Looks just like some of the eps members. No big deal at the moment Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I wouldn't give up hope yet... hour 144 does actually look ok, precise details are most definitely not nailed down yet, this is nearly a week away, small changes can make big differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I wouldn't give up hope yet... hour 144 does actually look ok, precise details are most definitely not nailed down yet, this is nearly a week away, small changes can make big differences I agree with you. Some do end up with something, it was just in a bad direction for us down my way. There weren't many members supportive from 12z that would have been snowfall for us either. You guys to the North have a better chance for sure. The Para gave me a slight bit of hope for the deep South though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The 00z EPS members has 1 member out of 50 that would support yesterday's 12z OP euro run. It had 6 out of 50 supporting the 12z solution on it's own means (12z EPS). The GEFS doesn't have anything close (moisture chasing cold) as the HP we need to funnel in some CAD moves out due NE way too quickly. The problem with this storm is the cold source. Lucky for us the models are still having trouble with the placement and movement of the high. We want any kind of low to sneak in just under the HP when it's just off the coast of the NE states or slightly over it, producing some decent CAD. The problem with the 00z Euro is that the high was off of the map (literally in the Atlantic somewhere) when the moisture came through. Pay attention not at storm location or evolution, but high and cold evolution. If it trends overall over Mass or simply over the NE or just hugging the coast, we're game. If it's out to sea by the moisture comes, we'll be hard pressed to get snow in the SE, you'd imagine. Check out the last 4 runs of the GEFS (12z, 18z, 00z, 06z): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 RAH mentions potential mixing p-type concerns for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Good video recap from Mr. East as he goes over next Monday http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The 6z GFS is showing a light wintery event for Monday. It shows .1 or greater from around RDU eastward. Not much, but It is a start; and hopefully we'll see the qpf increase in the next few days. Precip type map: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_156_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=156&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160209+06+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 RAH mentions potential mixing p-type concerns for Monday. They also mention Friday: MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE. And this is for Monday: ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Good video recap from Mr. East as he goes over next Monday http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/ Excellent video Matt! Explains the different scenarios as depicted at this time. Must watch for those with questions on possible outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 0z para Euro is a big hit! Looks like the 12z run from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Just to throw this out there from WPC. Per WPC, arctic cold air, particularly potentially record cold air is generally stubborn to get dislodged and already in prelim extended discussions, the dreaded ice word is being thrown out there for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 To bad its the 84 hr Nam and only the 12K had this the 4K was much drier..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 0z para Euro is a big hit! Looks like the 12z run from yesterday. While true as a whole the para is much warmer from previous runs which does give pause as the euro op went warmer last night as well Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This has mixed bag, ice written all over it for the triad region. Hopefully we can get a burst of front end snow and deal with sleet, to early to tell. Gonna be something if we sleet our entire way to climo over here this year. Sitting on 3 inches of crust for the season total so far. I'd much rather have the canadian solution verse the 0z euro. Lot of freezing rain with that scenerio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Man, well that was shot to crap pretty quick. Looks like the slowed up Atlantic and 50/50 low has gone by the way side and our high pressure is heading to Europe by the time the storm gets here. I really thought the cold high was in our favor this time, especially considering the arctic airmass that precedes it. But it looks like it's out of here just in time for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Models don't seem to look good as they did yesterday afternoon. Guess we'll have to see how they trend the next couple of days. Right now it just looks cold and dry this week, and too warm for anything but rain here next Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Good video recap from Mr. East as he goes over next Monday http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/ Excellent video Matt! Explains the different scenarios as depicted at this time. Must watch for those with questions on possible outcomes. Thanks guys..... While true as a whole the para is much warmer from previous runs which does give pause as the euro op went warmer last night as well Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It winds up warmer for two reasons. 1, it's slower. 2, it really cranks the low and tracks it from west of Savannah to Pamlico Sound. Makes it into a powerhouse low, really. I think this is a fascinating system, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Thanks guys..... It winds up warmer for two reasons. 1, it's slower. 2, it really cranks the low and tracks it from west of Savannah to Pamlico Sound. Makes it into a powerhouse low, really. I think this is a fascinating system, honestly. With that track you mention, and the super dry air, if precip gets in before we get above freezing or WB down to 29 or 30, it should hold on a little longer than progged, an in -situ type of thing!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Thanks guys..... It winds up warmer for two reasons. 1, it's slower. 2, it really cranks the low and tracks it from west of Savannah to Pamlico Sound. Makes it into a powerhouse low, really. I think this is a fascinating system, honestly. Thanks Matt, I appreciate the videos too...I like to wake up in the morning and see your take in the title of the video. If you mention it, I know it's still game on. If not, lowered expectations. Hopefully this thing will trend faster/colder. Didn't like the overnight runs though, and the GFS like you said is nowhere close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Thanks Matt, I appreciate the videos too...I like to wake up in the morning and see your take in the title of the video. If you mention it, I know it's still game on. If not, lowered expectations. Hopefully this thing will trend faster/colder. Didn't like the overnight runs though, and the GFS like you said is nowhere close. Like Mathew East said every model has a storm next week around Monday that the GFS will eventually catch on. Looks like it would start Sunday evening right now and last til Tuesday morning sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 NAM 12k still has a great look for NC on Friday.....really need this to be right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Good video recap from Mr. East as he goes over next Monday http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/ After watching it I think things look more positive than not for a winter storm next week. Euro, UK, and Canadian all have a storm, with a mix bag here of 2 to 3 inches of snow with some ice. It might not be a big snow storm, but a couple of inches of snow with ice is still a big deal here. GFS is the only hold out, but East said he thinks the GFS hasn't caught on yet, and the Euro is the way to lean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 NAM 12k still has a great look for NC on Friday.....really need this to be right lol Nam 12k.png GFS says no, the wave is sheared out by the mountains and redevelops to far south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 There's not much hope with next week's system either, per the 12Z GFS. Our HP is already centered over MN as the disturbance comes ashore near Seattle. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 NAM 12k still has a great look for NC on Friday.....really need this to be right lol Nam 12k.png Here's the weenie map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 GFS says no, the wave is sheared out by the mountains and redevelops to far south and east Not sure it's the mountains, more like the track with the energy was just more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Not sure it's the mountains, more like the track with the energy was just more south. That too, but the mountains tend to shear out energy diving in from that orientation... the trough axis is all messed up and that may hurt is next week as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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