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Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II


CapturedNature

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Yea NYC mets as well have a really tough call on this one. With such a sharp cutoff plus the uncertainty about the evolution of the storm after it gets cutoff and occludes means easy potential for busts on the north end of this. Big question for NYC and south coast ofCT especially is where/whether that frontal band sets up on the northern end and its intensity.  

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Brought that newly formed CCB further NW this run into E MA. Upped BOS area by a few inches. We'll have to watch that. Prob will be choking on sand but someone nearby could do a lot better than forecasts have right now.

 

 

Yeah i was just talking to some people here about that just now. Something to watch for sure.

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What are your thoughts on your employer's model?

 

 

I don't trust it outside 36 hrs. But right now, I look for trends. I am always a bit skeptical of the output even 24 rs from start time, but it does do well with mesoscale features...at least it did last year. Srfc temps seem biased warm.

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EURO definitely has work to do to correct the northward extent of snow valid for 00z tonight.  Yesterday's runs were about 6-8 hours too slow with the northern extent.. Hopefully this correction north gives the northern fringe of the storm a good push north into our area.. 

 

Have I mentioned how much I hate that we can't get free 12 hour Euro maps?

 

Well, looks better at initialization than yesterday's 12z anyway.

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I don't trust it outside 36 hrs. But right now, I look for trends. I am always a bit skeptical of the output even 24 rs from start time, but it does do well with mesoscale features...at least it did last year. Srfc temps seem biased warm.

 

I reallyask because it gives MBY 24-30

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QPF looks a hair south to me through 42hr...mostly noise

 

For pike region it constricted qpf, it upped it on the south coast...0.75 gets into the first 10 miles or so of S CT/RI

 

 

 edit: I actually am wrong, it looks slightly less too on south coast

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