Continued Winter Banter.

[RedSky]

Post-storm depression has set in. Always happens to me...Right after a major storm. You spend 5-6 days straight checking model runs 4x a day. Highs, lows. Then the storm comes and you haven't slept more than 3 hours a night for 3 straight days. Storm ends and you're already tracking the next one....Thank god it isn't late March or I'd be hospitalized. I'm a sick pup 

That's what made the last 2 winters exceptional. You got your snow and was able to hold it for a week or more until the next opportunity came. I have already lost 10" from my storm and it's January no less  

[allgame830]

Post-storm depression has set in. Always happens to me...Right after a major storm. You spend 5-6 days straight checking model runs 4x a day. Highs, lows. Then the storm comes and you haven't slept more than 3 hours a night for 3 straight days. Storm ends and you're already tracking the next one....Thank god it isn't late March or I'd be hospitalized. I'm a sick pup 

 

Yea I definitely second that!  It's like you do not want it to ever stop snowing, but obviously it gets exhausting after a while.  However, its all worth it since we got slammed.... Worse thing is when we track and track, then get screwed.

[bluewave]

Time for LA NINA thread .

 

 

All that warm water from the Tropical Atlantic north to off the East Coast may be signaling a more active

Atlantic Hurricane season for ACE than the last few. I am curious to see how long the +PDO hangs on

since the sig is still pretty strong on that chart that you posted.

[Jason WX]

Time for LA NINA thread .

 

 

 

Hurricane season will be a fun one!

[forkyfork]

summer will probably be very hot. 2010 comes to mind

[MJO812]

summer will probably be very hot. 2010 comes to mind

Hopefully active

[Brian5671]

The Jamstec says that we'll be breaking out the shorts early in spring.

 

temp2.glob.MAM2016.1jan2016.gif

wow-there's literally no cold on that map-hope the first half of March is cold then we can torch

[cjr231]

There is so little blue on that Jamstec output that its almost alarming. 

[RUMG11]

Awesome shot showing the tight gradient to the north.

[Jason215]

These 20"+ events are all starting to blend together since there have been so many of them since 2000.

In the past, we were lucky to see 1 or 2 events a decade with maxes of 20" or more.

LI/SCT/SE NY/NNJ 20" max storms since 2000:

2/17/03

2/5-7/03

1/22-23/05 close at 19.5" max

2/11/06

12/19-12/20/09

2/26-27/10

12/26-27/10

1/11-1/12/11

1/26-1/27/11

2/8-2/9/13

1/26/15

1/23/16

Not sure if the 2/5-7/03 storm hit NYC, but it's interesting that the "Weekend Rule" applies to about 80% of the big ones that hit NYC on your list. I know a couple of 2011 storms prevented it from being a 100% phenomenon.. (Blizzard of 96, 83 also occurred on a weekend).. Since I haven't seen anyone bring it up recently, I thought I'd chime in here!

-Jason

[jm1220]

Looking at more pictures around Long Beach, I definitely think there was 24" if not more. I saw one picture where cars were just jumps in the snow, with windshield wipers sticking out. Don't think I've ever seen that before, maybe again Jan 1996.

[jm1220]

Awesome shot showing the tight gradient to the north.

I-84 really did turn out to be the cutoff point. Amazing. The area is still clogged with snow around my house. My brother finally got done digging out his car an hour ago.

[Stormlover74]

Not sure if the 2/5-7/03 storm hit NYC, but it's interesting that the "Weekend Rule" applies to about 80% of the big ones that hit NYC on your list. I know a couple of 2011 storms prevented it from being a 100% phenomenon.. (Blizzard of 96, 83 also occurred on a weekend).. Since I haven't seen anyone bring it up recently, I thought I'd chime in here!

-Jason

That should be 12/03. It was Friday and Saturday 2 part storm

[Neblizzard]

Time for a LA NINA thread .

With a +PDO. We have to watch and see if the atmosphere still behaves like an El Niño next winter. We all know about 95-96 turned out.

[snowman19]

With a +PDO. We have to watch and see if the atmosphere still behaves like an El Niño next winter. We all know about 95-96 turned out.

More than likely we go into a -PDO regime, even Joe Bastardi said he thinks the Pacific goes back to -PDO. Also, looking more and more likely we see a plunge into a moderate to strong La Niña starting in the spring. The Nina's that followed the super Ninos in the past have actually been quite strong, but not much of a sample size though so we have to see.

[Jason WX]

Water still going strong.

[jm1220]

More than likely we go into a -PDO regime, even Joe Bastardi said he thinks the Pacific goes back to -PDO. Also, looking more and more likely we see a plunge into a moderate to strong La Niña starting in the spring. The Nina's that followed the super Ninos in the past have actually been quite strong, but not much of a sample size though so we have to see.

Hopefully from here out to California gets a surplus of rain to store up before that happens. The last strong Nina to happen here gave Texas a record drought, and started CA towards drought.

[SnoSki14]

More than likely we go into a -PDO regime, even Joe Bastardi said he thinks the Pacific goes back to -PDO. Also, looking more and more likely we see a plunge into a moderate to strong La Niña starting in the spring. The Nina's that followed the super Ninos in the past have actually been quite strong, but not much of a sample size though so we have to see.

That would really help ramp up the hurricane season although there might be a Nino lag. I'm thinking 2017 is when the Atlantic roars back to life.

[Snowshack]

Wow lead story at 5:00 on cnn "New storms forecast as millions struggle to dig out. ". That line has been on screen for three minutes now. What?

[Brian5671]

More than likely we go into a -PDO regime, even Joe Bastardi said he thinks the Pacific goes back to -PDO. Also, looking more and more likely we see a plunge into a moderate to strong La Niña starting in the spring. The Nina's that followed the super Ninos in the past have actually been quite strong, but not much of a sample size though so we have to see.

10-11 was a strong nina after the strong nino of 09-10.  Lucky for us, we got that epic 30-35 day pattern in 10-11

[bluewave]

While the sample size is small, developing La Ninas with a strong +PDO still hanging

on into June were weak with a +PDO. 

 

The only three years since 1950 were 2005-2006...1995-1996...1983-1984.

 

So it will be interesting to see if the models are correct about the strong +PDO

signature hanging on into the summer.

 

 

 

[uncle W]

here is a list of the 14 strongest la nina winters with an oni -0.9 or lower...reds are above average temperatures and below average snowfall...blue is colder than average with above average snowfall...blacks are near average...

la nina winters...DJF ONI...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls...

1973-74..............-1.7.......35.5.....6..........32.3..........23.5"..........6.0" 4.3"

1988-89..............-1.6.......35.9.....5..........32.4............8.1"..........5.0"

1999-00..............-1.6.......36.2.....3..........26.2..........16.3"..........5.5"

1975-76..............-1.5.......34.4....-1..........27.1..........17.3"..........4.2" 4.0"

2007-08..............-1.4.......36.4...10..........35.7..........11.9"..........6.0"

1949-50..............-1.4.......37.5.....6..........31.6..........13.8"..........3.8"

1998-99..............-1.4.......38.7.....9..........31.3..........12.7"..........4.5"

1970-71..............-1.3.......32.1.....4..........24.2..........15.5"..........6.4"

1995-96..............-0.9.......32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1"

2010-11..............-0.9.......32.7.....6..........28.1..........61.9"..........20.0" 19.0" 9.1" 5.0"

1955-56..............-0.9.......32.7.....5..........27.6..........33.5"..........11.6" 6.5" 4.2"

1984-85..............-0.9.......36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1"..........5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1"

[Jason WX]

While the sample size is small, developing La Ninas with a strong +PDO still hanging

on into June were weak with a +PDO. 

 

The only three years since 1950 were 2005-2006...1995-1996...1983-1984.

 

So it will be interesting to see if the models are correct about the strong +PDO

signature hanging on into the summer.

 

NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season5.png

all that heat in the ATL

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The seasonal average of 25" was probably never true.

The 30 year average from January 1981- December 2010 is actually 25.9 inches. Some places post it as 25.1 or 25.3 but NOAA changed that in 2014 when someone pointed out their math was incorrect. It was me, no applause please.

Once the 1980's which is the lowest snowfall decade ever in NYC HISTORY, are kicked out of the equation and the new 30 year average is calculated in January 2021 the new average will very likely be above 30 inches. If Central Park had no more snow from now through December 2020 the 30 year average would be 26.2. God forbid that happens and I just put a hex on the whole thing.

The average yearly snowfall in NYC since records have been kept in 1869 is 28.8 inches. That's a running total through last month this month may jack that up to 28.9 or 29.0.

[CIK62]

CPC does not like the next 14 days for any cold around here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

 

January will be the 7th. consecutive month of above normal temps. here---including 3 new warmest evers and a close 2nd.    Feb looks like a likely subject for the 8th. straight a.b. month.    March I feel has a chance to be close, but CFSv2 has not indicated 'a below normal month to be' since June and it has been correct, as it tracked the effects of an overpowering El Nino.  It still says the next 8 months will all be above normal.

In a week or so we will first need to compensate for the seasonal rise in temps. and then some to have any snow.   The blizzard probably was eked out because we were at the bottom of the temperature curve anyway.

At any rate the next 7 days look to average about +7.    

[weatherpruf]

Feb 2013 was a ku but was only accompanied by normal snowfall. 08-09 was also just slightly above normal snowfall, and the March storm was a cat 1 ku. Jan 2000 featured a ku which was much worse in the mid Atlantic but still gave us 4-8 inches but the area had much below normal snowfall that year. If you, however, only looked at say >15in storms for NYC you'd be hard pressed to find below average or average snow years, most would be above normal.

Thanks I'm only interested in the metro area, and I consider the east end of LI and northern counties to not really be in the metro area,  and there other statistical areas, such as the Edison metro area, but again there are overlaps....some of the storms you mentioned like Jan 2000 and March 09 were 3-5 inch deals here, so I'm tossing them. You could stretch the idea of the metro area all the way to the Poconos and some people do, not me. I'd say New Brunswick NJ to the west, up to Bergen Co to the north, Northern Monmouth Co, all five counties of NYC, and about to Central LI. Not familiar enough with CT but parts of it also. SI is actually part of NJ they just won't admit it. There's a reason they were connected to NJ before Brooklyn....this is all my personal opinion so don't take it for Gospel...

[weatherpruf]

CPC does not like the next 14 days for any cold around here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

 

January will be the 7th. consecutive month of above normal temps. here---including 3 new warmest evers and a close 2nd.    Feb looks like a likely subject for the 8th. straight a.b. month.    March I feel has a chance to be close, but CFSv2 has not indicated 'a below normal month to be' since June and it has been correct, as it tracked the effects of an overpowering El Nino.  It still says the next 8 months will all be above normal.

In a week or so we will first need to compensate for the seasonal rise in temps. and then some to have any snow.   The blizzard probably was eked out because we were at the bottom of the temperature curve anyway.

At any rate the next 7 days look to average about +7.    

It's gonna be a warm year, hope it isn't warmer than last, but I don't think the blizzard was eked out....semantics I know, but I think the effects of El Nino, warm Atlantic, and climate change all had something to do with it....enhanced moisture and so on. There's  a theory 

that we might see less snow overall as a result of climate change but what storms we get would be extreme....could be.

[NorthShoreWx]

22 biggest snowfalls of the past 21 winters at Smithtown, NY (from 1995-96 through this winter):

 

Feb 8-9, 2013     27.0

Jan 7-9,1996      22.3

Feb 16-18, 2003   18.8

Jan 23-24, 2016   17.5

Dec 19-20, 2009   17.0

Jan 11-12, 2011   15.8

Dec 5-6,2003      15.5

Jan 26-27, 2015   15.0

Jan 26-27, 2011   14.5

Feb 10, 2010      14.5

Jan 22-23, 2005   14.4

Feb 13-14, 2014   13.5

Jan 27-28, 2004   13.5

Feb 11-12, 2006   13.3

Mar 05-07, 2001   12.2

Dec 26-27, 2010   12.0

Feb 25-26, 2010   12.0

Apr 9-10, 1996    12.0

Mar 1-2, 2009     11.5

Dec 19-21, 1995   11.3

Dec 30, 2000      11.0

Mar 14-15, 1999    9.8

[weatherpruf]

 

22 biggest snowfalls of the past 21 winters at Smithtown, NY (from 1995-96 through this winter):

 

Feb 8-9, 2013     27.0

Jan 7-9,1996      22.3

Feb 16-18, 2003   18.8

Jan 23-24, 2016   17.5

Dec 19-20, 2009   17.0

Jan 11-12, 2011   15.8

Dec 5-6,2003      15.5

Jan 26-27, 2015   15.0

Jan 26-27, 2011   14.5

Feb 10, 2010      14.5

Jan 22-23, 2005   14.4

Feb 13-14, 2014   13.5

Jan 27-28, 2004   13.5

Feb 11-12, 2006   13.3

Mar 05-07, 2001   12.2

Dec 26-27, 2010   12.0

Feb 25-26, 2010   12.0

Apr 9-10, 1996    12.0

Mar 1-2, 2009     11.5

Dec 19-21, 1995   11.3

Dec 30, 2000      11.0

Mar 14-15, 1999    9.8

 

Darn good run, some were better out our way, but I think you have done better than us in shaky set ups like March 01 ( nothing but light sleet ), 09, 99 ( got nothing outta that one ) but a little less when we get pounded.

[Jason215]

That should be 12/03. It was Friday and Saturday 2 part storm

You're right, I remember that storm.. 12/5-6/2003. NYC/LI were under a blizzard warning. So many blizzards, it's getting hard to keep track of! I think the city ended up with around 13 or 14 inches.