DueUCMe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Van Denton from Fox8 in High Point has posted the following: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 gfs rough. rain for rdu after early sleet. slp on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Careful when you say "Central NC". I will just about guarantee here in the western piedmont it will not be a "decent rain event" I dont consider W-S "Central NC". You guys are Western Pied/foothills. If some want to interpret that as "west-central NC" so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 A lot of the NC Piedmont gets heavy snow on the front-end before the change over to IP. Big Frosty Land looks to be all-snow at first glance. I'll have to look at Skew-Ts, though. Tons of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS -- stronger, slower, north -- 3 for 3 tonight. less north, more stronger with the ULL. It transfers a bit further south and the primary holds on longer. Also a little colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 From 48-57 freakin FIREHOSE! S VA getting hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 wow what the heck, always last minute surprises!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 00Z GFS has a much greater snow signature for WNC compared to NAM. It's very similar to 18Z GFS in sensible weather for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Similar to the NAM thru 48, but then the ULL shifts east into GA. About a foot in AVL- not 20" but I'll take it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 wow what the heck, always last minute surprises!!! Starting to like the north-east Piedmont more than the foothills this run IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hr 36-39 is a drubbing with heavy snow for US64 northward (and probably a bit south of that). Clear snow sounding at GSO. I-40/I-85 flirts with snow vs. IP/ZR for a lot of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What in the world is everyone seeing? The ULL is deff more south and it's colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Cold Rain has mentioned the dry slot a few times. One thing I find interesting here is that this system is a slow mover and areas in NC are underneath the warm advection / overrunning precipitation for some 15-18 hours before the dry slot moves in....then the deformation band may move through behind the dry slot for light to moderate precip if the upper low tracks far enough south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Close to 4' for CHO through 66hrs and still ripping. As Calc stated, much better snow sig west of 77 in NC, sharp cutoff east of there though, Danville is at 16" while GSO is <1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Gfs now sends the upper low through north GA just like the euro. What is the panic about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Cold Rain has mentioned the dry slot a few times. One thing I find interesting here is that this system is a slow mover and areas in NC are underneath the warm advection / overrunning precipitation for some 15-18 hours before the dry slot moves in....then the deformation band may move through behind the dry slot for light to moderate precip if the upper low tracks far enough south That would be nice, though I think your area would do better with that than mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Cold Rain has mentioned the dry slot a few times. One thing I find interesting here is that this system is a slow mover and areas in NC are underneath the warm advection / overrunning precipitation for some 15-18 hours before the dry slot moves in....then the deformation band may move through behind the dry slot for light to moderate precip if the upper low tracks far enough southKinda on topic, but I don't understand the point of "forecasting" the dry slot when it can refill anyway and relies heavily on banding/radar/satellite viewing. I mean someone will get dry slotted, but to say t will be RDU is a little premature, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 What in the world is everyone seeing? The ULL is deff more south and it's colder. You are correct, it is further south and stronger ala Euro but holds that primary low longer and kills off any wraparound snow chances. Other than that it's a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Close to 4' for CHO through 66hrs and still ripping. As Calc stated, much better snow sig west of 77 in NC, sharp cutoff east of there though, Danville is at 16" while GSO is <1" A bit puzzling looking at the Skew-Ts for GSO... The one I posted above is below freezing throughout the column and there's a ton of QPF in that range. Likewise, the hr 36 sounding looks snowy and the ones after 39 are either right at freezing or just above (probably mostly sleet). I'd imagine more than 1" of that is snow. And the remainder looks like sleet, which would add to accumulations to some degree (3:1ish ratio). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 gfs rough. rain for rdu after early sleet. slp on the coast Huh? raw data showing close to 1 inch liquid qpf all freezing rain and sleet before changing to rain. that would be bad ice, and that assumes the model is breaking down the wedge correctly. Changeover at RDU is certainly possible although not a given either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hr 36-39 is a drubbing with heavy snow for US64 northward (and probably a bit south of that). Clear snow sounding at GSO. I-40/I-85 flirts with snow vs. IP/ZR for a lot of the storm. Bout lines up with van Denton map to a t for mby. 4 to 5 snow, then .50 qpf as solid ice, just hope it's all sleet. Even DT had the 4-8 strip through mby. Both jump into 6-9 your area the 12 rural hall to 16 ish mta airy. We stay all frozen on even the nam so not worried about that. The FREEZING Rain POTENTIAL On 0z NAM Makes My Stomach turn. Got paralyzed with over a inch qpf freezing rain Dec 2002 and it was boderline catastrophic never want to come close to that again, esp having to take care of parents now along with kids wife. Onto the canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Huh? raw data showing close to 1 inch liquid qpf all freezing rain and sleet before changing to rain. that would be bad ice, and that assumes the model is breaking down the wedge correctly. Changeover at RDU is certainly possible although not a given either. Do you know where the new BUFKIT links are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Kinda on topic, but I don't understand the point of "forecasting" the dry slot when it can refill anyway and relies heavily on banding/radar/satellite viewing. I mean someone will get dry slotted, but to say t will be RDU is a little premature, IMO. I look at it like this....with this kind of strong, wound up system, the overrunning portion of the precip is very reliable / not splotchy on radar, instead, a solid shield of precip moving in...then the dry slot moves in where the precip weakens quite a bit, then we may get into some backside deformation band precip. My main point was that a dry slot will definitely develop, however, there is some 15-18 hours of solid precip before it moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS-13 km snowfall through hour 72. Keep in mind this is just frozen precip (snow and ice) not just snow .but you can see the hi-res is seeiing alot of this qpf in the form of frozen even at RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Do you know where the new BUFKIT links are? I use the bufkit warehouse http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/retro_map.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 With transfers, there is always a precip min. That's just the way it is. It's inescapable. But does it really matter if you get an inch of QPF before it occurs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS-13 km snowfall through hour 72. Keep in mind this is just frozen precip (snow and ice) not just snow .but you can see the hi-res is seeiing alot of this qpf in the form of frozen even at RDU. Sad thing is we're not getting 14" of snow at RDU. Likely not even 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Huh? raw data showing close to 1 inch liquid qpf all freezing rain and sleet before changing to rain. that would be bad ice, and that assumes the model is breaking down the wedge correctly. Thnx. Words of reason. Thx Jon too Thanks Allan and Jon. It's confusing when some people say it's over for RDU. All rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RDU remains below freezing until around 4 Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Do you know where the new BUFKIT links are? Hi sir. I asked the local weather office around here and they have changed a bit around. They recommend the following sites: PSU Warehouse It's not as clean as the old way, but it does work. I manually put urls in when i need to view them (on bufget). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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