Stormsfury Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yes sir, you provide absolutely amazing insight for this region. Thanks very much for it. The only model left to really show ice around here is the Euro and it was around 34-35 at 12z at a point of heavy moisture. Wind would be a problem this way I would bet regardless? Yes. The raw output on the GEM was high enough on its own to be very damaging. Throw in a 20mph+ wind and down goes the trees, power lines, etc. Remember that Feb 2014 icestorm. 31-32 down here. Roads stayed wet but ice accrual of .50 had thia region sounding like a warzone with all the snapping trees. I had 15 mph winds with gusts at times over 30. Very damaging event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 00z UKMET is a bomb. Unbelievable amounts of QPF. Looks to track to N AL, then transfer to S GA and up the NC/SC coast. Unfortunately, it's hard to compare it since it did not run yesterday (or at least it doesn't show up on the Meteocentre site). h5 track looks decent to me. The surface low probably isn't great for the central/eastern Piedmont or certainly the coastal plain, though. Take a look for yourself: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=000 Beautiful I'll take the UKMET and go home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GEFS looks good, ULL moves from north AL into GA. UKMET is a bit north of that but not bad. I should have not let the NAM rattle me, I just get paranoid f a screw job in these cases..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 GEFS is slower, wetter, and colder ar 42 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 00z UKMET is a bomb. Unbelievable amounts of QPF. Looks to track to N AL, then transfer to S GA and up the NC/SC coast. Unfortunately, it's hard to compare it since it did not run yesterday (or at least it doesn't show up on the Meteocentre site). h5 track looks decent to me. The surface low probably isn't great for the central/eastern Piedmont or certainly the coastal plain, though. The UKMET is a very wet model, usually too wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GEFS is slower, wetter, and colder ar 42 hrs How's it look for RDU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Canadian destroys NE ga with snow instead of ice..curious http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016012100/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_6.png Why do i have a sneaky feeling about the CAD. FFC not mentioned it. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yes. The raw output on the GEM was high enough on its own to be very damaging. Throw in a 20mph+ wind and down goes the trees, power lines, etc. Remember that Feb 2014 icestorm. 31-32 down here. Roads stayed wet but ice accrual of .50 had thia region sounding like a warzone with all the snapping trees. I had 15 mph winds with gusts at times over 30. Very damaging event. Yes, at my area we lucked out with sleet and ended at about 0.15 or so of ZR. Even that was a problem when the wind picked up. 15 miles to my south was 1/4 inch of ice and an even bigger problem... then the core of the ZR South of there caused the disaster / fema aid. I believe the RGEM handled that event very well up this way. That worries me a bit with the RGEM/CMC trying to get on board. With that said, the RGEM and CMC have been a bit too cold around here this season. Also, if I am reading the UKMET correctly, it looks to be less ice during the main portion of precip around here.... but I can not be sure with the maps I have on how much it starts as. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How's it look for RDU? About the same as the op. Nothing really new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's just not Columbia's year is it? We got a historic flood in October, so this wouldn't surprise me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GEFS is slower, wetter, and colder ar 42 hrs Despite the cliff jumping due to the 00z GFS, the GEFS isn't that much different if at all it's pretty negligible in the big picture. I doubt the ensembles change much from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Despite the cliff jumping due to the 00z GFS, the GEFS isn't that much different if at all it's pretty negligible in the big picture. I doubt the ensembles change much from here on out. is this compared to the 18z GEFS or the 00z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Despite the cliff jumping due to the 00z GFS, the GEFS isn't that much different if at all it's pretty negligible in the big picture. I doubt the ensembles change much from here on out. NAM sucked but the GFS was fine except for overdoing the strenth of the primary I believe. UKMET keeps the primary south and transfers due east to GA/SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 00z GEFS members: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM sucked but the GFS was fine except for overdoing the strenth of the primary I believe. UKMET keeps the primary south and transfers due east to GA/SC coast. That would be so much better for all of NC, just need it to stay offshore, the Ukie had the SLP a good 100 miles east of Hatteras at 18Z a track from GA/SC coast to there would change things a lot for many in NC...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 is this compared to the 18z GEFS or the 00z GFS? So in that post I was pretty much commenting on the 00z GEFS saying that it hasn't changed much from the 18z GEFS and that it's negligible, so the 00z GFS cliff jumping was more or less unwarranted and pretty much an overreaction based off the 00z NAM. If that answers your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 00z GGEM snowfall map using the Kucera method which leaves out IP/ZR and accounts for ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So in that post I was pretty much commenting on the 00z GEFS saying that it hasn't changed much from the 18z GEFS and that it's negligible, so the 00z GFS cliff jumping was more or less unwarranted and pretty much an overreaction based off the 00z NAM. If that answers your question. Ok, thank you. That completely answers my question. Tough that the Nam and GFS were so a bit north. This upcoming Euro run isn't the most important Euro run, but rather, the toughest I'd say. I don't know if I can watch. The 12z solution was not only historic, but reasonable (in this context) as well. Hopefully this king stands firm; this is the last Euro run I think has significant importance before short range models and now-casting become the better techniques. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 00z GFS BUFKIT data shows 4.8" snow, 2.1" of just sleet, and 0.31" ZR out of like 2.06" of QPF for GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 00z GFS BUFKIT data shows 4.8" snow, 2.1" of just sleet, and 0.31" ZR out of like 2.06" of QPF for GSP. Nice. Also from BUFKIT from the 00z GFS: DAN: 18.6" SN, 0.39" PL, 0.00" ZR, 2.05" TQPF (all-frozen) - That's Danville, VA, BTW. ROA: 17.8" SN, 0.00" PL, 0.00" ZR, 1.62" TQPF (all-snow) GSO: 10.4" SN, 1.2" PL, 0.02" ZR (really love the last part!), 1.89" TQPF (all-frozen) RDU: 2.3" SN, 0.92" PL, 0.29" ZR, 2.58" TQPF (changes over to rain) HKY: 5.6" SN, 0.00" PL, 0.28" ZR, 1.23" TQPF (changes over to rain) CLT: 1.9" SN, 0.48" PL, 0.52" ZR, 1.48" TQPF (changes over to rain) AVL: 5.6" SN, 0.15" PL, 0.04" ZR 0.86" TQPF (all-frozen) Source: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 EURO looks a smidge faster, just as far south so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 looking good so far.. hr36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Much wetter through 48...just a ton of QPF over SC and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Comma head coming very close to BHM-ATL by late Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Extracted data doesn't look awful. Colder than American guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Heavy snow Laurenburg up east of raleigh hr 48 Not right, looks like I 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Look at the CAD signature... is it just me or has that become more pronounced in the different models tonight... EURO no different. All the way to Atlanta! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Pretty bad run for the VA/WV boarder...not as much moisture for them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 smashes biotches left and right...2M is damn cold...and euro is slightly warmer bias as well....WOW, this is icy as hell in the CAD areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The ULL is centered just west of ATL at hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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