Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Seriously, this needs to be said, as I have experienced the let down! Feb 2013, Euro snow map was spitting out crazy maps over my area, like 14-22"! I got maybe 2-3" of mostly sleet and a little snow! Wow also just poster that the GFS ensemble maps DON'T seperate freezing rain, sleet and snow, it counts it all as snow and that's very detrimental, because sleet is like 3:1 ratio and ZR is even worse, and it's counting all amounts of frozen as snow at 10:1 ratios But we know this and have known this for a long time. It's not new information and shouldn't be a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Seriously, this needs to be said, as I have experienced the let down! Feb 2013, Euro snow map was spitting out crazy maps over my area, like 14-22"! I got maybe 2-3" of mostly sleet and a little snow! Wow also just poster that the GFS ensemble maps DON'T seperate freezing rain, sleet and snow, it counts it all as snow and that's very detrimental, because sleet is like 3:1 ratio and ZR is even worse, and it's counting all amounts of frozen as snow at 10:1 ratios I'd imagine ZR is slightly more or slightly less than 1:1, depending on how heavily it's falling and how cold the temps are. If it's near freezing and really coming down, it probably won't accrete at 1:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just released by WxSouth on his facebook page: I don't see any model data yet that suggests there's a "moderate to heavy snow risk" in the Atlanta area. Why'd he predict this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not to banter but, I assume most would know this. I guess in the future one should state whether the maps takes into account ip/fz. Question, any models that show snowfall map outputs with only snow? I don't know why some are so unwilling to acknowledge that the snow maps aren't well accounting for ip/zr in their totals and also that RDU could get more ice than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just for the record, I'm hoping for low-impact. There are contra dances that'll be cancelled. I'm kinda really stressed out right now. I don't want a crippling storm at all. So I am not pulling my usual shtick. Hope for a more Miller A track. Primary lows that run west of the apps are the culprit to crippling ice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I saw a few asking -- YES there is a lot of mixing in the wxbell snowfall maps that show all snow, RAIN/ZR/IP in those images especially east and south of I-85 as Wow pointed out. Here's the sounding from the 18z GFS. Textbook "mixed bag" during the height of the storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
todd03blown Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't see any model data yet that suggests there's a "moderate to heavy snow risk" in the Atlanta area. Why'd he predict this?This is what he shared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not to banter but, I assume most would know this. I guess in the future one should state whether the maps takes into account ip/fz. Question, any models that show snowfall map outputs with only snow? Yeah, sounds like a good idea. I guess I also shouldn't expect an answer to the question about who is downplaying the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't see any model data yet that suggests there's a "moderate to heavy snow risk" in the Atlanta area. Why'd he predict this? It's dependent on the track of the ULL/deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Anyone know when the hurricane hunters are doing a dropsonde mission for this storm? I seen one was scheduled earlier today I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 First call map: Zone A: Predominately snow with some sleet mixing in. Totals could reach 1 to 2 feet. Zone B: Predominately wintry mix with snow and sleet being the predominate precipitation type. Freezing rain mixing in in the southern extent of the zone. Totals 3-6 inches with 0.10-0.15" of ice. Zone C: Predominately freezing rain with rain mixing in at times near the southern extent of the zone. Totals 0.25-0.50" of ice with locally higher totals approaching or exceeding 1.00". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 First call map: Zone A: Predominately snow with some sleet mixing in. Totals could reach 1 to 2 feet. Zone B: Predominately wintry mix with snow and sleet being the predominate precipitation type. Freezing rain mixing in in the southern extent of the zone. Totals 3-6 inches with 0.10-0.15" of ice. Zone C: Predominately freezing rain with rain mixing in at times near the southern extent of the zone. Totals 0.25-0.50" of ice with locally higher totals approaching or exceeding 1.00". Any reason Zone A is not down to at least I-40 and Hickory? Other then that great looking map! Reason I ask everyone that I seen has anywhere from 6-18inches for the I-40 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 First call map: Zone A: Predominately snow with some sleet mixing in. Totals could reach 1 to 2 feet. Zone B: Predominately wintry mix with snow and sleet being the predominate precipitation type. Freezing rain mixing in in the southern extent of the zone. Totals 3-6 inches with 0.10-0.15" of ice. Zone C: Predominately freezing rain with rain mixing in at times near the southern extent of the zone. Totals 0.25-0.50" of ice with locally higher totals approaching or exceeding 1.00". imo...conservative esp with the ice...more snow and ice in the B area...say 0.3 and above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here is a forecast map from Duke Energy: Literally puts me right on the line of mostly rain, or 3/8"-1/2" zr. I hate being a 'border county' for weather events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisr4419 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 When was the last major Miller A to produce for the Carolinas? And are there any similarities here with this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z GFS ens FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 When was the last major Miller A to produce for the Carolinas? And are there any similarities here with this storm? This is a Miller b imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ok I say when it comes time for OB thread Wow starts it! He has brought the goods so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Saving grace for Roanoke Rapids down to Raleigh and south is going to be that NE wind which comes in Friday evening, about the same time the low is over ILM. That is going to flip those locations over to heavy rain, probably around 4-6pm and should knock down most of the accrual. For areas further to the west, Burlington down to Gastonia, maybe Concord and Charlotte, that is kind of the inflection point for being sub freezing throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 When was the last major Miller A to produce for the Carolinas? And are there any similarities here with this storm? This isn't a Miller-A nor a Miller-B (although closer to a "B" in my opinion). Comparisons are not that easy to make here, despite the analogs thrown about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GSP maps look about right. Good first call for a tough job guys As Isohume noted don't be surprised if they are overdone a bit I agree . Just look at Rutherford county to see how freaking hard it will be to nailed down totals and p types. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not to banter but, I assume most would know this. I guess in the future one should state whether the maps takes into account ip/fz. Question, any models that show snowfall map outputs with only snow? Pivotal weather has snowfall maps using the Kuchera Snowfall Method. It uses thermal profiles that calculated a specific snow ratio then uses that with qpf to generate snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ok I say when it comes time for OB thread Wow starts it! He has brought the goods so far waiting for a WOW thread for north Fla .... hope it's not 'cane season lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here is my first call map for this event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Can we have a separate thread for call maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here is my first call map for this event.. This looks very good to me. Nice job! Love you captured the nuances of local mountain tops. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here is my first call map for this event.. Looks great to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyBookMonkey Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm new here to this forum. Located in Northern Georgia. Thank you for the hard work everyone does trying to make predictions with a tricky weather situation on hand. This storm looks to be complicated, especially in our area. As you all know my area is prone to CAD related icestorms, and I do have one question for the experts. I have seen many posts on here saying that Miller A storms are better for ice storms, than apps runners? Why is this? Because the low will not interact with the CAD in an APPS Runner situation? Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Pretty nicely visualized southern trend on GFS 12z/0z Op models. Shows the low transfer nicely, as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here's what i came up with from looking at the hourly soundings on the bufkit skew t's for raleigh and hickory on the 18z NAM. gfs to come Hickory = 9 inches of snow, 3 inches of sleet Raleigh = 2 inches of snow, 1.5 inches of sleet, .6 freezing rain, rest is rain This is using a 3:1 sleet ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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