Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 SJ, thanks for posting! That 14-18" total line, is inching down torwards me! You can see it showing the hole over central NC! By the looks of it, the comma head pivots right over my area! That includes frzg rain & sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 RAH just released a graphic that has "increased" their amounts from earlier graphic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GSP maps look about right. Good first call for a tough job guys As Isohume noted don't be surprised if they are overdone a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GSP maps look about right. Good first call for a tough job guys As Isohume noted don't be surprised if they are overdone a bit Hard for me to believe they would be under done esp in foothills when not one model shows that low of a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Here is a forecast map from Duke Energy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just released by WxSouth on his facebook page: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 A few of the 18z GEFS members go full Miller A and get the sfc low near the FL panhandle. Oh boy. If this ends up a Miller A, that'll reduce the ice threat to a degree. I'm keeping my fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hard for me to believe they would be under done esp in foothills when not one model shows that low of a forecast. I agree 100% if anything I think they still could up the totals for the Foothills and Mountains Brad P. even said his high amounts are being conservative and might be underdone for the Foothills and Mountains and might be bumped up tomorrow depending on data/trends from tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 A few of the 18z GEFS members get the sfc low near the FL panhandle. Oh boy. too bad it's just the low and not snow ,,,, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Does anyone think GSP will issue an Ice Storm Warning for the upstate since models are showing 1/4 inch or more of ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Anyone have the individual GEFS snow members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 A few of the 18z GEFS members go full Miller A and get the sfc low near the FL panhandle. Oh boy. If this ends up a Miller A, that'll reduce the ice threat to a degree. What would that imply as far as swinger weather? Bringing snow further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 SREF temps for RDU have lowered near freezing for the entire event... Also, mean for snow is tightly clustered now around 2.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 What would that imply as far as swinger weather? Bringing snow further south? It would remove the big ice threat for the CAD areas and turn to more of a big snow. If the low bombs quick enough some of the coastal areas could see some backlash snow as it moves north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Anyone have the individual GEFS snow members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Who is Brad P? The Greg Fishel of the upstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GSP maps look about right. Good first call for a tough job guys As Isohume noted don't be surprised if they are overdone a bit I agree . Just look at Rutherford county to see how freaking hard it will be to nailed down totals and p types. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Who is Brad P? The Greg Fishel of the upstate? Best Met In CLT(and his viewing area) and a true workhorse! Ask anyone. Don't think he ever sleeps https://twitter.com/wxbrad https://about.me/wxbrad http://wxbrad.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Brad P and Greg F are probably = in their forecasting ability. Brad P is just way way way more of a social media user than Fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 ens members wow, i know a lot of it is ice but to have every member show a major hit...wow. hoping the 00z runs come in with that slp offshore to minimize our ice threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Anyone have the individual GEFS snow members? Not sure I have ever seen so many members look so much alike. Not sure why some are trying to diminish the threat unless they just think all the models are wrong. I don't know how you get just a couple inches of snow and a little ice from what all the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
todd03blown Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just released by WxSouth on his facebook page: Interesting to read his thoughts that go with this picture in relation to ATL/NGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not sure I have ever seen so many members look so much alike. Not sure why some are trying to diminish the threat unless they just think all the models are wrong. I don't know how you get just a couple inches of snow and a little ice from what all the models are showing. Because of mixing, these are probably not best taken at face value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I don't know why some are so unwilling to acknowledge that the snow maps aren't well accounting for ip/zr in their totals and also that RDU could get more ice than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 [quote name="Jon" Anyone have the individual GEFS snow members? Doesn't those include ice, or do they take it out? Seems high in the southern piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If a model thinks an inch of QPF is 10" of snow but in real life only .2 of the inch of precip you get is actually snow and the rest is ice, it's still a significant winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Here's one of the GEFS members that has a (nearly) Miller A track and keeps all areas west of I-85 as all snow. The lack of a primary pulling up to N GA/S TN keeps the midlevel cold in place. A stripe of ice/mix is a stripe from upstate SC to just south of RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just for the record, I'm hoping for low-impact. There are contra dances that'll be cancelled. I'm kinda really stressed out right now. I don't want a crippling storm at all. So I am not pulling my usual shtick. same. we need a euro solution with majority snow/sleet with as little frz rain as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I know, but most of them show close to 12 inches here. That has to be really off for it just to be a couple of inches of snow and a little ice.Seriously, this needs to be said, as I have experienced the let down! Feb 2013, Euro snow map was spitting out crazy maps over my area, like 14-22"! I got maybe 2-3" of mostly sleet and a little snow! Wow also just poster that the GFS ensemble maps DON'T seperate freezing rain, sleet and snow, it counts it all as snow and that's very detrimental, because sleet is like 3:1 ratio and ZR is even worse, and it's counting all amounts of frozen as snow at 10:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 same. we need a euro solution with majority snow/sleet with as little frz rain as possible. A quarter inch of ice would be okay. That's pretty, but not damaging. 0.5" or more is problematic. Hoping for that sleet as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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