TiltedStorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GSP a hour ago They always under do their first estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 They always under do their first estimates. Yes, only 9-10 for AVL? No model is that low...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 RAH three hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 RAH three hours ago Conservative IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yes, only 9-10 for AVL? No model is that low...... Dang..Pretty much ZERO for the far Western NC Mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arandall Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How does RAH's guidance match 1.5"+ QPF in the area? 1-2" of snow and ~0.3" of ice? There's about an inch of liquid missing, right (unless they think this will mostly be a rain event for Raleigh...)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Here's about the only 12z UKMET map I can dig up, retrieved from here: http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm Hr 72 surface panel: Conservative IMO Yeah, you can see where the RAH and GSP WFO border that RAH is a more conservative overall, comparing the forecasts right across the county line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The best in the state of GA, Kirk Mellish write up. http://www.wsbradio.com/weblogs/kirk-mellishs-weather-commentary/2016/jan/20/next-winter-storm-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Why is anyone paying attention to local mets and going off of their forecasts? They look at the same models we do, and they are actual mets, so I like to hear what they have to say. Through all the maps and stuff on hear, I didnt think we would see any snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 They always under do their first estimates. This could actually be overdone somewhat across many mtn/fhill locales. The IP duration should be pretty sigfnt Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Here's about the only 12z UKMET map I can dig up, retrieved from here: http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm Hr 72 surface panel: Yeah, you can see where the RAH and GSP WFO border that RAH is a more conservative overall, comparing the forecasts right across the county line. Thats where we need the SLP to actually be, this over the sounds or OBX crap isnt good for anyone.....there will be a lot more ice out west than snow if there is a 995mb low over the Pamlico Sound and of course 2" of rain for me, but if it was that far offshore everyone would be all snow....think 1980 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This map is definitely affected by ice, and I have not examined soundings; however, the p-type maps seem to indicate that a lot of this actually is snow for I-40 north and west. The amount of precipitation for this event is just amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For RAH: - IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACKAND SUBSEQUENT COLDER AIR...WE`D HAVE TO SHIFT THE AFOREMENTIONEDITEMS AND IMPACTS FARTHER SOUTH.- THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT AN IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUNDTHIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY CUT OFF THE PRECIP SOONER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH WOULD ULTIMATELY LESSEN THE AFOREMENTIONED AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 When it comes to p type, I know this is really not like the 12/2002 event, but we were supposed to get all freezing rain, and we actually had alot more sleet mixed in and as devastating as that storm was, it could have been alot worse! Don't remember the QPF for that one, but it was alot. So basically root for more sleet, so a deeper cold layer, if you are in the 1.25 ice zone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Thats where we need the SLP to actually be, this over the sounds or OBX crap isnt good for anyone.....there will be a lot more ice out west than snow if there is a 995mb low over the Pamlico Sound and of course 2" of rain for me, but if it was that far offshore everyone would be all snow....think 1980 I disagree, it's great for myself and the others in the NW mtns of NC. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 First I have heard of a dry slot here. GFS continues to increase the totals ND precip. Also sounded like the track went a tad east off the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 BEWARE THE DRY SLOT... There is always a catch. WRAL's Futurecast model just showed mostly rain on Friday for central NC...but Fish said he wasn't ready to agree with it yet... It also showed a 20% chance of 2+" for Wake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 First I have heard of a dry slot here. GFS continues to increase the totals ND precip. Also sounded like the track went a tad east off the NC coast. No it is not. I have mentioned the dry slot potential several times. If the system takes the progged track, we will dry slot. It would help cut down on ice accums, assuming the temps remain cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Damn! Chris Justus just dropped the hammer on us! Said the new GFS (18z) gives us 8+ inches of snow! Just hope that's not suppose to be from wraparound !? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I disagree, it's great for myself and the others in the NW mtns of NC. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I dunno you guys would do pretty good regardless though, the difference for you would be "only" 12" instead of 18" the difference for me and folks in central and eastern NC is between 2" of rain and 6-12" of snow..... If the low track is over the sounds central/eastern NC will dry slot which is fine just means less rain...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Skew-Ts indicate that the I-40 corridor in NC (INT, GSO, etc.) is very close to all-snow on the 18z GFS. There are a couple panels where we may be mixing with sleet, but it really depends on the precip rates. Interesting trend considering the GFS was mostly ZR/IP here yesterday. Its going to be interesting, because I am far enough east now that I still fully expect to switch to zr or even plain rain for a while before transitioning back to snow, but being so close to the projected position of the slp when it is due east of me, the wrap around should present descent rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So looks like the threat has really dimished for RDU based on dry slot potential and more mixing/rain issues. Also reading NWS AFD seems like more ice and rain than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 18z GEFS is out. Here is cumulative total precipitation and clown snowfall comparing the 18z (first) with the 12z (last run). The 18z is a bit wetter and the snowfall mean has came south a bit. Of course, we're within range where the operationals should be paid more attention, but nevertheless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This map is definitely affected by ice, and I have not examined soundings; however, the p-type maps seem to indicate that a lot of this actually is snow for I-40 north and west. The amount of precipitation for this event is just amazing. This is the same map partitioned by precipitation type: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 18z GEFS is out. Here is cumulative total precipitation and snowfall comparing the 18z (first) with the 12z (last run). The 18z is a bit wetter and the snowfall mean has came south a bit. Of course, we're within range where the operationals should be paid more attention, but nevertheless... ATL could be the winner based on this..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Damn! Chris Justus just dropped the hammer on us! Said the new GFS (18z) gives us 8+ inches of snow! Just hope that's not suppose to be from wraparound !?I saw that. Like CJ a lot. He gives all model data...one of the first to do it since Andy Wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So looks like the threat has really dimished for RDU based on dry slot potential and more mixing/rain issues. Also reading NWS AFD seems like more ice and rain than anything Over the last 24 hours, the threat of an impactful winter storm for the Triangle has increased. It will not be a snowstorm. We will be lucky to get a few inches of snow. There will be a warm nose aloft and a dry slot. It will not be an historic storm, but it will be significant. A nice winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So looks like the threat has really dimished for RDU based on dry slot potential and more mixing/rain issues. Also reading NWS AFD seems like more ice and rain than anything Based on what data? Just curious what you are seeing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Damn! Chris Justus just dropped the hammer on us! Said the new GFS (18z) gives us 8+ inches of snow! Just hope that's not suppose to be from wraparound !? Wow, I hope he is right. I figured most of it would be ice. Let's hope the good trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Damn! Chris Justus just dropped the hammer on us! Said the new GFS (18z) gives us 8+ inches of snow! Just hope that's not suppose to be from wraparound !? Mack, divide that total by 1/2 - did he mention roof collapses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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