powderfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm shocked.Haha I wish some of you lived in the deep interior, you'd get it .I think this is a paste bomb for anyone over 700ft in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Exactly the ideas discussed yesterday. The trend yesterday was to retrograde the PV lobe as well as emphasize the energy diving down from Rockies a day earlier (Jan16-17), and the STJ energy gets spit out harmless off the southeast without phasing. The blockbuster runs of Fri/Sat 2 days ago had the STJ energy dominating, and phasing with the northern stream energy. 2 days ago, guidance also had better confluence due to positioning of the PV lobe over us rather than retrograded to Manitoba, and many GEFS and EPS members on Friday had a suppressed system. . . . And would love to see Alex Smith fumble in snow. We've been talking about this scenario since Sunday as the blockbuster Miller A solutions faded. I'm wary of this system... it seems to keep squirming it's way to mediocrity. Blockbuster Miller AB phase fell apart with too many shortwaves to coordinate. The lead northern stream shortwave has trended dominant so we've been looking for an unimpeded Miller B, but then that Manitoba ULL popped up and a persistent primary low cooked the BL... there's still definitely potential, but now also watch out for the possibility that this becomes an open wave and slides out east. Euro also now has the vortmax overshoot farther out to sea, and an additional surface low forming much further east... GFS hinted at this as well today and with those earlier more strung out solutions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Still trending, though....get that into the low 960s... One can hope but I'm not sure that will be the case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Flying in to Logan on the 18th at 11:30pm, hopefully I can catch some action, even if it is only 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 This looks like a spring storm. Definitely better higher elevations as of now.it's embedded in a garbage airmass. if there was a high to the north dc-bos would be looking at a potential blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Id rather risk the overshoot than rain. Fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Id rather risk the overshoot than rain. Fine by me. I think that I would rather have you risk the rain than the overshoot lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Damn. 960's east of Nova Scotia? Sign me up for some of that...lol. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 That's such a nice track though. What a pissah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 That's such a nice track though. What a pissah. I like the trend on the secondary...we're shutting off the WAA from the primary more rapidly on the model guidance today than the past day or two. Let that secondary blow up and dominate the conveyor process...then we'll end up with more of that airmass from Maine rather than Columbus Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I would bang the 12z ECMWF EPS for satuurday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Haha I wish some of you lived in the deep interior, you'd get it . I think this is a paste bomb for anyone over 700ft in SNE. Been a long time since there's been one. Still think this has room to trend colder for coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I like the trend on the secondary...we're shutting off the WAA from the primary more rapidly on the model guidance today than the past day or two. Let that secondary blow up and dominate the conveyor process...then we'll end up with more of that airmass from Maine rather than Columbus Ohio. Yeah I think 95% of the time I would be excited. Dam srly ahead of it hurts here. But for ORH and points N and NE it could be a condo collapser. Still time, but the airmass needs work near BOS. It's pretty mild right up through 850. If that primary stayed weaker, it would be a whole different game. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I would bang the 12z ECMWF EPS for satuurday Way to derail the thread.. jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 A handful more Euro ensemble members hanging out around 38N / 65W... gotta watch out for that overshooting vorticity I mentioned above. Amazing how this keeps squirming away from the more impactful solutions we hope for. There's no evidence for this right now, but would love (if only for the ridiculousness of this guidance mayhem) for this to come back full circle to the old miller A solution Jan 18-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Damn. 960's east of Nova Scotia? Sign me up for some of that...lol. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I think the next one is the bigger one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I would bang the 12z ECMWF EPS for satuurday There are a lot of members that just crush Dendrite to you...far enough north to be in the cold, and far enough SE to be in the deep moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Good week to be in Maine by the look of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I think the second storm is better for SNE coastal plain than the 16-17th storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I think the second storm is better for SNE coastal plain than the 16-17th storm If we can get it up the coast. And that's a big if. Much colder air at that point. Long way off and days until that s/w gets sampled, but worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I think the second storm is better for SNE coastal plain than the 16-17th storm There's not a single hit on any of the 51 euro ensembles. Maybe an inch of oes for u? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 There are a lot of members that just crush Dendrite to you...far enough north to be in the cold, and far enough SE to be in the deep moisture. Yeah, Looking at the individual members on Wxbell, There are a lot more favoring left spread on the mean and some good ones to............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 This weekend reminiscent of 97-98 lol....great track and rain during cold climo....an extraordinary middle finger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 ENS are nice for SNE as a whole. Not too dissimilar from op Though def. some closer in tracks as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'll be in West Hartford this weekend, but I'd really much rather be in Boston. Not looking forward to low level warmth melting all my snow while Mount Kevin gets 6+" of paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 There's not a single hit on any of the 51 euro ensembles. Maybe an inch of oes for u? Some nice ones on the GEFS though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 gefs and eps has been trending earlier with the xfer, weaker primary, stronger secondary and more tucky, colder. writing this off is simply ignoring the trends and being a negative nancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Some nice ones on the GEFS though I'm very skeptical. The first low serves to increase confluence and push the baroclinic zone south. Tough to get a 1 to 2 hit that quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm very skeptical. The first low serves to increase confluence and push the baroclinic zone south. Tough to get a 1 to 2 hit that quick. Yep. Though we used that argument on Jan 24th when that slopfest came through and wound up getting a blizzard three days later. Can happen, but certainly wouldn't put any money on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Which is why the second one favors areas further southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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