40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 We have a pretty strong primary up into Detroit...that's one way to ruin the party despite a coastal that develops. In New England, we can get away with primaries pretty far north if we have a good high but we don't this time. So we're trying to thread a needle with the primary losing dominance quickly, but on this run the PV lobe stays too involved with the PJ shortwave and we let the WCB crank too long on the primary....we still almost pull it off in the interior though. I had a feeling tonight would trend back ugly. Thank Christ I crashed at 8pm. back to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Euro anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Occluded 940s lows in the north Atlantic often don't produce much precipitation. QPF generating mechanisms are correlated to rate of deepening of a cyclone not absolute pressure. Much better to have a 1000mb low rapidly deepen to 990mb at your latitude than have a steady state 966mb crawl past you (at least in most cases minus mesoscale effects). Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Euro anyone? Go to bed. I was wrong. Skunked....new record for potential pi$$ed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Go to bed. I was wrong. Skunked....new record for potential pi$$ed away. Still more than 48 hours away. But yes I'm taking your advise. Goodnight everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Euro anyone? Even further ots. ~970 southeast of BM, barely grazes SNE. As I wrote yesterday... this system has an uncanny ability to squirm its way to mediocrity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Still more than 48 hours away. But yes I'm taking your advise. Goodnight everyone. I had this grand epiphany of sorts once I arrived home from work and realized that after 48 consecutive hours of trending the solutions still blew. The most aggessive forecast, the 18z GFS, dropped about 3" of slush...and I just had this sinking feeling, as I harkened back to historical "trenders". Trenders are events never meant to be, yet will dangle the trender-treat in in the forefront for about as long as it possibly can, before abruptly pulling it once it is realized by the diseased synoptics at play that they may just have to stop farting in your face. Last night's clipper that just passed is one such threat that I had identified as such very early on in the game. Granted, this is admittedly anecdotal, before the empirical denizens reach for the tar and feathers, but it is my belief that if after about 48 consecutive hours of trending, a favorable consensus has still yet to have been achieved, then the DNA of that particular threat is every bit as flawed as a Joe Tornton led NHL hockey. Like I side, I was absolutely wrong....never changed my forecast, but I had a feeling that the 18z GFS and its paltry output was the pinnacle of this team's comeback attempt. Hey, maybe we can make some quick free agent acquisitions, and team snow can still hoist the cup, but for now it looks as though Joe Thornton will be checking out at day 4...or for you sports laymen, the first round of the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I had this grand epiphany of sorts once I arrived home from work and realized that after 48 consecutive hours of trending the solutions still blew. The most aggessive forecast, the 18z GFS, dropped about 3" of slush...and I just had this sinking feeling, as I harkened back to historical "trenders". Trenders are events never meant to be, yet will dangle the trender-treat in in the forefront for about as long as it possibly can, before abruptly pulling it once it is realized by the diseased synoptics at play that they may just have to stop farting in your face. Last night's clipper that just passed is one such threat that I had identified as such very early on in the game. Granted, this is admittedly anecdotal, before the empirical denizens reach for the tar and feathers, but it is my belief that if after about 48 consecutive hours of trending, a favorable consensus has still yet to have been achieved, then the DNA of that particular threat is every bit as flawed as a Joe Tornton led NHL hockey. Like I side, I was absolutely wrong....never changed my forecast, but I had a feeling that the 18z GFS and its paltry output was the pinnacle of this team's comeback attempt. Hey, maybe we can make some quick free agent acquisitions, and team snow can still hoist the cup, but for now it looks as though Joe Thornton will be checking out at day 4...or for you sports laymen, the first round of the playoffs. Has Tip hacked your account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 In all seriousness with so many conflicting factors in play this winter it's near impossible to forecast specific events this year. More so than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 There's times it wants to puke snow and then there's this winter so far. We'll get our chances and considering how this one swung so wildly, hard to put any stock in solutions past d3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Arghhhhhhhhhh. My snow weenie is flaccid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 At least we have the wind of today to remind us it's winter. Still hopeful that I might eek out a little snow up this way.....may as well break out the seed catalog. 19.1/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Well at least as of now it ends as a period of snow that if it happens soon enough could drop a few inches. This is why I felt so strongly about a ratter ..the Massive Nino overwhelms everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Well at least as of now it ends as a period of snow that if it happens soon enough could drop a few inches. This is why I felt so strongly about a ratter ..the Massive Nino overwhelms everything Nino isn't why the primary is north. That can happen in any winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Nino isn't why the primary is north. That can happen in any winter. I saw the 6z GFS and H85 temps and was like that looks like a blue bomb but then you look at 925mb temps and its just torched, even up here its like +1C at 925mb. Heavy precip down for you guys but the 925 temps are ridiculous. Can it get flushed? Pretty nice cold tuck at 925mb down the coast from Maine though. Might help NE MA in that solution. Next panel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 What happened to Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Well the 6z GFS has another beautiful looking coastal low, but the primary is still too strong and the airmass too warm. Perhaps eastern areas with such a strong coastal and heavy enough rates and a better airmass to the NE that could be briefly tapped into,further removed from the warming mid level influences created by that God awful primary, could briefly flip ,but this is looking more and more like another failure. This system was progged for quite some time, and had the feeling of a reversal, with teleconnection support and the growing excitement of a pattern flip but the weather has no soul, it a complex, dynamic science of constantly fluid, moving, and changing parts, yet we still flock at 10 day lead times even knowing we could be like sheep being led to the slaughter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Nino isn't why the primary is north. That can happen in any winter.The Pac slamming storms into the west coast and destroying our pna doesn't have anything to do with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It can def end as snow even to the water. All depends how soon it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'll give through 12z runs before tossing the storm and the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Reading this I was quite surprised how optimistic GYX was this morning. All snow in my forecast 80% snow likely. Mentioned mixed precip near the coast and in southern NH. I saw Ekster's name on the short term but it was another guy on long range. What I am reading in here indicates that the temps aloft will not support snow, or at least all snow. The guy on the long term was also honking a bit for Sunday night. Here it is: LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AN INTERESTING SHIFT IN THE UPPER PATTERN TRIES TO TAKE PLACE THISWEEKEND DUE TO A BUILDING HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AROUND 110W. ITBEGINS WITH A SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE THAT GETS EJECTED NORTHEAST TOOFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT AND TRIES TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERNSHORT WAVE BEING DRIVEN EAST DUE TO THE BUILDING WEST COAST RIDGE.THIS RESULTS IN A NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLANTICCOAST WHICH WILL SPAWN STRONG DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW OFF THEMID ATLANTIC COAST. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM WILL BE CRITICAL ONHOW MUCH QPF REACHES THE AREA. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE PTYPE SHOULDBE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW SAT/SAT NIGHT EXCEPT A MIX ALONG THECOAST. FOR NOW HIGH POPS FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT APPEAR TO REFLECTLIKELYHOOD OF AN EVENT BUT THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE ON AMOUNTS.MODELS DIFFER SOME ON POSITIONING OF TRACK SO CONFIDENCE ON TRYINGTO FIGURE ANY AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR NOW.ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS BY LATE SAT NIGHT ANOTHER STRONG UPPERSHORT DRIVES RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY CAUSINGTHE LONG WAVE UPPER TROF POSITION TO MAKE A SHIFT TO THE EAST.ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEMTHE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE AS PLENTY OF SENSIBLE/LATENTHEAT RELEASE WILL BE AT THE READY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARDCONSIDERING THE VERY STRONG AMPLITUDE AND POTENTIAL NEGATIVE TILTTHAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS TROF BY SUN NIGHT. PREFER THE MOREPRONOUNCED EURO SOLUTION VS THE LESS AMPLITUDE OF THE GFS AND AFEW OTHER MODELS. SO FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT WILL NEED TO CLOSELYWATCH TRENDS OF MODELS AND BROADBRUSH FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Nino isn't why the primary is north. That can happen in any winter.But I mean it's the reason why the cold pattern modeled collapsed. And why we can't mange a good snowstorm this winter. It just overwhelms everything when it's so strong. Fast flow, progressive etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 But I mean it's the reason why the cold pattern modeled collapsed. And why we can't mange a good snowstorm this winter. It just overwhelms everything when it's so strong. Fast flow, progressive etcAleutian low too far east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 But I mean it's the reason why the cold pattern modeled collapsed. And why we can't mange a good snowstorm this winter. It just overwhelms everything when it's so strong. Fast flow, progressive etc The pattern was never an ice box though. It's pretty much as is. If anything, the big 2nd half of Jan warm up that everyone feared, probably won't happen. The problem is nuances in the flow, aided by Pacific jet, can't be determined by ensembles when someone is looking beyond day 10 for example. So yeah...you can maybe relate something to a PAc jet...but these things happen too. 50 miles SE and that makes a difference. You can't pin that on Nino. It's not like the CONUS is a blowtorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 That is a classic mid level crush look for this area on the GFS, and it torches..lol. I guess it could flip to paste in a narrow area...but you just have to laugh. My guess is GFS may be a little too warm by a tad, but overall it's mild 850 and below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 A good thing though is this allows us all to be so much more productive at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 we are still two weeks away from last years magic turnaround but there was more winter before hand, I just am starting to feel like it is 11-12 all over again where things look great out in fantasy land but nothing really comes to fruition. this weekends event is particularly upsetting not just bc of a nice track and a cold rain but it will not produce good snows up in nw areas...it has been forever since there has been really good synoptic snow events for upstate ny and western nne and western cne...yes there are squalls and upslope and clippers or being on the fringes of sne or ene mega bombs but its not the same and this year so far isn't showing any hope yet for those folks i would even argue those folks have more of a right to complain than those of us here in death valley so this weekend is too warm aloft with a good track that will take most of its moisture with it and where it is cold enough will be too far removed...miller a and quebec high where are you lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 That is a classic mid level crush look for this area on the GFS, and it torches..lol. I guess it could flip to paste in a narrow area...but you just have to laugh. My guess is GFS may be a little too warm by a tad, but overall it's mild 850 and below. Well maybe the mid levels will win out... Did the Ensembles support the operational runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Well maybe the mid levels will win out... Did the Ensembles support the operational runs? I would watch it for you guys and down into areas like nrn ORH county..maybe even NE MA. If the GFS is right, have to respect dynamics too. But overall it wraps in air that's too mild for a lot of spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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