Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 And then there was Sipprell who had a different take lol SYNOPTICALLY: ENSEMBLE MEAN PREFERENCE. SURFACE TO H85 NOR`EASTER TRACK OUT OF THE N-GULF ALONG THE SE-COAST OFF THE CAROLINAS AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MOVING NE IN PROXIMITY TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE BOMBING OUT S OF NOVA SCOTIA AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. LEANING TOWARDS AN OPEN-WAVE SETUP AT AND ABOVE H7 NEGATING CYCLONIC TROWALING. FOCUS THEREFORE WITHIN THE N/NE-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW AS THE ANTICYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYER BELT TAKES PRECEDENT ... BUT THERMAL PACKING / DEFORMATION LIKELY NW OF THE H85 LOW RESULTING IN FAVORABLE LIFT THROUGH SNOW-GROWTH REGIONS WHERE ICE WILL BE PRESENT. COULD BE DEALING WITH AROUND 20 MICROBARS PER SECOND OF OMEGA DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE H85 LOW AS DEEP-LAYER FORCING PREVAILS BENEATH DECENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THERMAL PROFILES: FOCUS ON H85 FREEZING LINE / 1000-850 THICKNESS. DESPITE THE DOUBLE-BARREL LOW SETUP AND ABSENCE OF ARCTIC / CANADIAN HIGH TO THE N WITH WARM AIR FUNNELING REARWARD OF THE NOR`EASTER ... TAKING THE ENSEMBLES AND STRONG VERTICAL FORCING INTO CONSIDERATION BELIEVE THAT DURING THE MORNING PASSAGE AREAS FROM N-CENTRAL CT NE THROUGH WORCESTER INTO N/W ESSEX COUNTY MA WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION WHEREAS MORE N/W OF THE AFOREMENTION LINE WILL SEE SNOW ... MAINLY WET SNOW WITH LOW SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. RAIN ELSEWHERE. TRANSITION LINE WILL LIKELY BACK N/W THROUGH THE DAYTIME PASSAGE OF THE STORM AND AS MILDER AIR OFF THE OCEAN WORKS IN BEFORE RACING E LATE AS WINDS BACK W USHERING ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION AS THE STORM EXITS E. WILL CONSIDER SNOW OCCURRING AS WARM AS 36-DEGREES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: THINKING A LIGHT SLUSH FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE WITH ROADS REMAINING FAIRLY WET AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND 32 TO 36 DEGREES. THEN AGAIN IF IT SNOWS HARD ENOUGH LIKELY DROPPING THE TEMPERATURE A DEGREE OR TWO WE WOULD LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATION ON ALL SURFACES. N/W OF THE LINE EXPECT ACCUMULATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER. LOW CHANCE OF ADVISORY- LEVEL SNOWS. will give Bellichek another reason to rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Box has a map out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 will give Bellichek another reason to rant That disco will fire Scooter up and he'll disagree with just about all of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 18Z GFS looks awful. Maybe tomorrow morning I can unpin this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Did you guys see any of those individual GEFs members... man - P009 has like a ... 938 mb low due S of NS and it's circumvella of influence is so ginormous that there is a blizzard raging over the Berks. not sure i've ever seen that modeled like that. anyway, about 9 of the 12 members were uber amped compared to the Euro ... kind of a little modeling war here - Yeah, some of those are more effective than any ED pill. "You should consult your doctor before taking the GEFS. Discontinue the GEFS immediately if effects last more than four hours." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 18Z GFS looks awful. Maybe tomorrow morning I can unpin this. No kidding. How quickly that went into the can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 And wxniss FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I dunno, I might wait until other guidance shows such a weak seaward solution before making declarations. Euro ens were actually pretty robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I dunno, I might wait until other guidance shows such a weak seaward solution before making declarations. Euro ens were actually pretty robust. I guess, not having Euro precip maps makes it tough. I've just watched it move farther and farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I guess, not having Euro precip maps makes it tough. I've just watched it move farther and farther east. well Kevin said Sunny Saturday so i am in a quandry, is he going with the GFS which 'no met should ever use" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 No kidding. How quickly that went into the can.We don't trust the gfs when it shows a big storm, out on its own but we do trust it when it is showing a bad outcome in its own? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 We don't trust the gfs when it shows a big storm, out on its own but we do trust it when it is showing a bad outcome in its own? I guess, not having Euro precip maps makes it tough. I've just watched it move farther and farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 We don't trust the gfs when it shows a big storm, out on its own but we do trust it when it is showing a bad outcome in its own? there it is in a nutshell. I banged Ryan for the same thing today, talking out of both sides of your mouth. If you post oh look rain and cold and dry then it flips and you don't say a word, speaks volumes. Pure trolling. I know most know that a blend of solutions with the weight on the Euro SR is usually a good way to forecast and heavily weighted LR on the Euro Ens but I see it daily in here exactly what you are saying. Scooter and Will have been fantastic reads lately. Kudos to them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 there it is in a nutshell. I banged Ryan for the same thing today, talking out of both sides of your mouth. If you post oh look rain and cold and dry then it flips and you don't say a word, speaks volumes. Pure trolling. I know most know that a blend of solutions with the weight on the Euro SR is usually a good way to forecast and heavily weighted LR on the Euro Ens but I see it daily in here exactly what you are saying. Scooter and Will have been fantastic reads lately. Kudos to themI find the model diagnostic discussions interesting in these times. Where can we see NAEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I find the model diagnostic discussions interesting in these times. Where can we see NAEFS? https://weather.gc.ca/mainmenu/modelling_menu_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 https://weather.gc.ca/mainmenu/modelling_menu_e.html Thanks Steve. Puts out 4-6 inches forme Saturday which is exactly what I've been thinking. That's a great tool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Thanks Steve. Puts out 4-6 inches forme Saturday which is exactly what I've been thinking. That's a great tool That is what Momma used to say, lol Marky Mark!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 That is what Momma used to say, lol Marky Mark!!!!She said that for 4-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 She said that for 4-6? No silly goose, 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 She said that for 4-6?great tool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 With no clear (model) cut forecast. One could state that in this set-up it will be predominantly rain for the three SNE states. Follow-up is suppressed south due to the bombing cyclone. Well Inland areas at onset have a brief bout with a mix, frzr and sleet. Back-end briefly flipping back to snow. Mountains and Maine cash-in. Pay-day seems to be perpetually stuck a week out. That 1044 ain't walkin through the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I dunno, I might wait until other guidance shows such a weak seaward solution before making declarations. Euro ens were actually pretty robust. They certainly were. I'd say like 40% were pretty big QPF producers around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 They certainly were. I'd say like 40% were pretty big QPF producers around here.Must be where Sipprell got his snowy AFD idea from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 going going gone guess I will await the 2nd hand info on euro runs before putting a fork in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 pcompare.png going going gone guess I will await the 2nd hand info on euro runs before putting a fork in it. EPS mean was pretty solid for us...relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Late night in the office. Anyone want to give a brief summation of today's runs and trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Late night in the office. Anyone want to give a brief summation of today's runs and trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 lucy-football.jpg Alrighty then. GTK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 GFS is more southeast than the 18z run for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Much faster...making room for #2. Almost looks like a 3bunner. I would gladly forgo #1 as rain with #2 as big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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