CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 EPS has been strangely bullish the past 2 runs...that's the only thing that makes me give any credence to this. These srn stream systems with convection probably play havoc with models. On one hand, it could be right and the system tucks closer to coast thanks to latent heat machines. On the other hand, models too influenced from convection. So who knows. It won't be dry I know that, but I think you need that stronger axis of lift. Although where you are, you don't need elevation as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 EPS has been strangely bullish the past 2 runs...that's the only thing that makes me give any credence to this. Been steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Lol wut the heck is this? Damn That's actually kind of what I've been envisioning. A mix and or rain going over to a quick thump of snow that can drop 1-2 spot 3 depending on changeover time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 We're in AVN range now. NGM should have a good handle by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Probably just a steadier, colder rain for the coast. Interesting to still see such volatility though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 When Euro ens keep mean precip up its pretty telling, almost every member too. Interesting day of runs as we expected. Tossing all models just because they shifted 100 miles is pretty silly when there is Ens support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Wtf is the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Wtf is the EPS? Euro ensembles...I still call them the Euro ensembles, since EPS just sounds weird to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 When Euro ens keep mean precip up its pretty telling, almost every member too. Interesting day of runs as we expected. Tossing all models just because they shifted 100 miles is pretty silly when there is Ens support. The cold rain is a nail biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 When Euro ens keep mean precip up its pretty telling, almost every member too. Interesting day of runs as we expected. Tossing all models just because they shifted 100 miles is pretty silly when there is Ens support. Not likely..but not out of realm that we can change over to a thump before it ends. Sunday night/Monday has surprise 1-3 potential look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Euro ensembles...I still call them the Euro ensembles, since EPS just sounds weird to me. Not truly wanting to go OT, but why switch after all this time of using RGEM and EURO Ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 When Euro ens keep mean precip up its pretty telling, almost every member too. Interesting day of runs as we expected. Tossing all models just because they shifted 100 miles is pretty silly when there is Ens support. The EPS is definitely more bullish than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Ensemble Prediction System Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 We like to confuse folks with the newer model terms, I think it sharpens the mind...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Pretty colors FTL. Still looks pretty marginal on soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 We like to confuse folks with the newer model terms, I think it sharpens the mind...........lol LOL! Weenies trying to sound important? 99% of this boardmembership would be classified as a weenie, use all the pretty fluffed up language you want...still a weenie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Pretty colors FTL. Still looks pretty marginal on soundings. That's why we said not likely, but not out of realm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The op is dry. Seems too dry and nobody expects that. But I think you need to see where the good list ends up and that is a lot more tougher to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'm hoping the old TRS-80 running the NOGAPS can latch onto this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 12z Euro is coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 12z Euro is coming west Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Euro would be a paste job from like Hubby north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yup Looks like a BM track 979mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yeah this is a colder run as well, Game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Looks like SE of BM or near it with build of precip east, but a tug west for sure. H7 was favorable in SNE high spots previously mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Looks like a BM track 979mb I can't see between H85 and the sfc...how do 925 temps look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 wish we could cool this a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I can't see between H85 and the sfc...how do 925 temps look? 0C goes down to near EEN-AFN verbatim. I assume it may underplay dynamics a bit south so I included Hunchie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Still a far cry from 4KM NAM snow way to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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