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Isopycnic

January 2016 BANTER

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At least GSP mentions next week... but smart not to go with goofy

 

THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS A WELL DEVELOP COASTAL LOW ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS SYSTEM WOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NE GA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION WILL NOT BE USED.
INSTEAD...I WILL FOLLOW THE 12Z ECMWF FOR FORECAST DETAILS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

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I still don't want to get involved in specific threats beyond day 5, so we'll see how this Jan 12th thing looks tomorrow. But the pattern over the next 2 weeks looks amazing. If the southeast doesn't get a snow event by the end of the month, we suck.

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Well if we can't get any snow or ice around here, I'd like for Jan and Feb to be like Christmas weekend with 70's and 80's for highs. Cold and dry is just awful.

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I think Pleasant Hill is east of us -- closer to Roanoke Rapids.  We are north of Oxford and Roxboro -- got a heavy flurry the other day that dusted the ground... 

yes it close to Roanoke Rapids. I go up Roanoke Rapids a lot working! That's why I was asking.....

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Well if we can't get any snow or ice around here, I'd like for Jan and Feb to be like Christmas weekend with 70's and 80's for highs. Cold and dry is just awful.

 

:facepalm:  Brick... is that you??  :)

 

If it is in the 70s and 80s you'll NEVER... EVER get snow - I can promise you that. 

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I'm here for the winter ride again and glad to be here. Last winter was frustrating at times. We got a small ice event and also came the event of high hopes, shattered. We got 2" of snow on the morning commute the day before the HUGE STORM was supposed to hit and it ended up as rain here that night. Don't remember the date exactly but I'm sure you all know the one I'm referring to. It was a 3 alarm event and bread and milk and batteries off the shelves in every store. The morning commute in the snow the day before was kind of cool. Got to drive to work in it and actually experience driving to work because we didn't want to shut down since the big one was coming lol. Any other forecasted 2" and we would have been delayed but didn't want to since the BIG ONE was on it's way. Work and lots of businesses shut down prepared for a foot of snow and the dynamics did not happen as so many thought. Anyhow, the weather is going to do what it's going to do and I know it's hard to forecast but I love the build up and science at work when something is potentially coming. That's why I log in here every winter. Right now I'm so confused with this Jan 13th. Some enthusiasts and mets see something possibly coming into play, others see nothing. I know there is really nothing to look at but that whole "potential" gives me something to look for but yet, it's not really there yet. Some say pattern potential, some say torch. So dang confused atm.........Where's Mr. Toad's Wild Winter Ride in the SE? California is on the El Nino ride. I want that ride to sail on up over here with cold in place. I really hope we get something REAL to track this winter, even if it busts like last year for mby. Love the action. 

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Starburst is a pimp!

 

Who is that guy?  I keep hearing about him.  Someone dropped me a message recently asking if I was him/her.  They got banned ages ago elsewhere.

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Finally got banned from Talkweather.

 

Bros, I can "view the community again" it's easy to change the ip address.  Anyways, I'll just not post in that cluster of severefightfest place anymore.  Or will I? :D

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Total noob question, but what's the difference between the 540dm line when looking at the surface and looking at the 500mb level?

 

Do they correlate with each other in any certain way or are they totally different?

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The snow and fog mostly cleared for a bit this afternoon and I got about 30 minutes worth of sick views of the Grand Canyon. It looked so cool with the snow contrasted with the warner desert canyon below.

Anyways, it is pouring snow again now as the "real" storm arrives with 12-18" expected by Friday morning. We are driving out tomorrow morning and heading to the Hoover Dam, then Las Vegas, so I'm not sure how that drive's going to go...

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The snow and fog mostly cleared for a bit this afternoon and I got about 30 minutes worth of sick views of the Grand Canyon. It looked so cool with the snow contrasted with the warner desert canyon below.

Anyways, it is pouring snow again now as the "real" storm arrives with 12-18" expected by Friday morning. We are driving out tomorrow morning and heading to the Hoover Dam, then Las Vegas, so I'm not sure how that drive's going to go...

are you in Arizona on vacation or do you live there now ? You should post some pics of the snow for us snow starved weenies.

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are you in Arizona on vacation or do you live there now ?

Vacation.

We got into Phoenix to start on January 1st, then we went to Tuba City on the 3rd, and got to the Grand Canyon yesterday. Our last couple nights will be spent in Las Vegas, then I'll be back in NC on the morning of the 10th (this Sunday).

I'm really liking the climate on the Colorado Plateau, though. Maybe I should look into moving here, haha.

Here is a picture I took of the Grand Canyon in the snow when it cleared up for a bit. I thought it was cool how you could see the snow line since the canyon is much lower in elevation than the rim (7000 ft. vs. 2500 ft. ASL). That's the difference between a wintry wonderland and temperatures in the 50s.

20160106_145834_zpsychtpfjl.jpg

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Total noob question, but what's the difference between the 540dm line when looking at the surface and looking at the 500mb level?

 

Do they correlate with each other in any certain way or are they totally different?

 

What I know is the 5400 on 500mb maps is way cold. the 540 on thickness maps mean snow.

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Vacation.

We got into Phoenix to start on January 1st, then we went to Tuba City on the 3rd, and got to the Grand Canyon yesterday. Our last couple nights will be spent in Las Vegas, then I'll be back in NC on the morning of the 10th (this Sunday).

I'm really liking the climate on the Colorado Plateau, though. Maybe I should look into moving here, haha.

don't gamble all your money away !!

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Total noob question, but what's the difference between the 540dm line when looking at the surface and looking at the 500mb level?

 

Do they correlate with each other in any certain way or are they totally different?

Not sure of the specifics but I know on 500mb maps it's not the general rain/snow demarcation zone like it is on the thickness maps. Generally speaking on thickness maps you want the 540 line near you as it's typically the rain/snow zone. However other details can influence this like a warm boundary layer of warmer air aloft and give rain so it's best to look at soundings during marginal events. On 500mb maps you generally just want to look for the overall blocking look as well as split stream or cutoff low signals.

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Not sure of the specifics but I know on 500mb maps it's not the general rain/snow demarcation zone like it is on the thickness maps. Generally speaking on thickness maps you want the 540 line near you as it's typically the rain/snow zone. However other details can influence this like a warm boundary layer of warmer air aloft and give rain so it's best to look at soundings during marginal events. On 500mb maps you generally just want to look for the overall blocking look as well as split stream or cutoff low signals.

 

When you see that 540 line on actual 500mb height maps, it means cold coming down/over you.  If you're inside the line, it's cold.  I know many like to say "arctic outbreak"... but 540 @ 500mb over us is exceptionally cold overall.. not normal in the Southeast.

 

It's usually the sign of arctic intrusion we aren't use to and storms get crushed/sent south.

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