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January 2016 BANTER


Isopycnic

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When they say there is a winter storm potential, I stick around to let my SC guys know what's up cause we kinda get skipped over for the "threat" stuff.  It gets better after the threat is imminent though.

 We are just not positioned well for winter weather. The upcoming pattern does not impress me for SC. All the models bring the big cold only to the NC/TN or NC/VA line or I-40 at most. That is very typical with these quick glancing colds where it doesn't really have time to filter over and down the mountains. In fact, for GSP, the current air is much colder than what is forecast for next week - really just back to around average for a couple days, then back to above. I am hoping second half of Jan or Feb can produce here, but WNC should have some fun for quite awhile. 

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 We are just not positioned well for winter weather. The upcoming pattern does not impress me for SC. All the models bring the big cold only to the NC/TN or NC/VA line or I-40 at most. That is very typical with these quick glancing colds where it doesn't really have time to filter over and down the mountains. In fact, for GSP, the current air is much colder than what is forecast for next week - really just back to around average for a couple days, then back to above. I am hoping second half of Jan or Feb can produce here, but WNC should have some fun for quite awhile. 

If that storm at day 9 sets up farther north, you might be the best positioned. 

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Just arrived at Grand Canyon Village. Wintry wonderland here. Unfortunately, the snow is doing us no favors as far as views of the canyon go, however.

We had about 1/2" snow in Tuba City last night and then were in Hopiland earlier this afternoon. I did not realize how high in elevation the southern rim of the Grams Canyon was.

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Arctic assault over the SE post 300 hours on the 18z GFS.

Unfortunately or fortunately, however you choose to look at it, lately the GFS has been off and on showing some relative degree of cold at about 300 +/- ; but with that model, it also seems 300 keeps running backwards ...  or in other words, 300 cold never really comes forward ....

 

Just a casual observation.

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Can't wait to wake up and see 4 new posts in the pattern thread:

1.00z GFS has potential at hour 300

2. GFS ain't gonna get it done, doesn't even look cold anymore.

3. Euro wasn't too bad, no storms , but 240 about to drop the hammer!

4.Euro was horrible, PNA is breaking down, looks like a Dec repeat incoming after next week.

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Can't wait to wake up and see 4 new posts in the pattern thread:

1.00z GFS has potential at hour 300

2. GFS ain't gonna get it done, doesn't even look cold anymore.

3. Euro wasn't too bad, no storms , but 240 about to drop the hammer!

4.Euro was horrible, PNA is breaking down, looks like a Dec repeat incoming after next week.

could be the best damn post you ever made .....

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Anyone know anything about the site for NC Piedmont Weather? Saw on Facebook he said there was a chance of snow and sleet in NC tomorrow morning.

Are you referencing the FB page? If it's the one I'm thinking of its the same one that copies other websites graphics and hypes up events that never happen. No chance for snow or sleet in NC tomorrow 850 temps are way too warm and too shallow a layer of cold air for any sleet. A few high res models hint at the possibility of some zr overnight Wednesday, however it would be light and spotty if it does occur and temps would be marginal. Nam had RDU 33-35 range so not quite cold enough. If the NAM is a little warm then we could see some light zr, something to watch real time obs and trends for.

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Anyone know anything about the site for NC Piedmont Weather? Saw on Facebook he said there was a chance of snow and sleet in NC tomorrow morning.

buy his 150$ lifetime membership and im sure he will tell you.

 

guy is a weenie and steals model images and graphics and posts them as his own.

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Are you referencing the FB page? If it's the one I'm thinking of its the same one that copies other websites graphics and hypes up events that never happen. No chance for snow or sleet in NC tomorrow 850 temps are way too warm and too shallow a layer of cold air for any sleet. A few high res models hint at the possibility of some zr overnight Wednesday, however it would be light and spotty if it does occur and temps would be marginal. Nam had RDU 33-35 range so not quite cold enough. If the NAM is a little warm then we could see some light zr, something to watch real time obs and trends for.

 

Van Denton mentioned sleet tomorrow night but with how limited the moisture is I'm not concerned with the temp profile. It's not going to be a big deal either way to have a few dry pellets hit the ground before a freezing sprinkle of frost.

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