BRSno Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 That minimum map from BOX is a reality check for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Chris, Are you on short term desk tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 WSW have been issued here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Chris, Are you on short term desk tonight? Yes. I'm running through the various models now. HRRR is on the cool side, similar to the ARW and NMM. All models are really torchiest around 750 mb. RGEM is sleeting from BTV to PWM by 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yes. I'm running through the various models now. HRRR is on the cool side, similar to the ARW and NMM. All models are really torchiest around 750 mb. RGEM is sleeting from BTV to PWM by 12z tomorrow. Ok, I saw you just updated, RGEM has been warm the last 3-4 runs, I don't know how that model is with these types of events though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Enjoy it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 WSW have been issued hereBTV upgraded us to a Warning in Lamoille County.I'm skeptical that you and I see warning criteria amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 BTV upgraded us to a Warning in Lamoille County. I'm skeptical that you and I see warning criteria amounts. Yeah, Nice, Looks like 6-10" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 New box map is ugly for pretty much everyone south of the NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Latest and greatest from ALY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Snow won't be as big an issue as sleet/freezing rain. This system blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 New box map is ugly for pretty much everyone south of the NH border2-3" is a win to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Ok, I saw you just updated, RGEM has been warm the last 3-4 runs, I don't know how that model is with these types of events though. I tend to think it does a really good job on low level thermal field. It feels like it's designed with winter weather in mind, but I don't have a good feel for how it does with mid level temps. I've definitely seen situations where it is too aggressive there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 FYI - the ECMWF snowfall maps from WeatherBell should no longer be as weenieish. PL/ZR now no longer gets "counted" as snow. The worthless maps that the weenies loved for years are now at least somewhat more useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 FYI - the ECMWF snowfall maps from WeatherBell should no longer be as weenieish. PL/ZR now no longer gets "counted" as snow. The worthless maps that the weenies loved for years are now at least somewhat more useful. Just ran through the latest run, definitely the case. And definitely north of the Pike based on the Euro. Maybe still a tick heavy on the southern edge of all snow, but it's not a bad look for a clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Just ran through the latest run, definitely the case. And definitely north of the Pike based on the Euro. Maybe still a tick heavy on the southern edge of all snow, but it's not a bad look for a clown map. Sort of makes me laugh that so many people loved using them for so long even though they were total garbage. Definitely a better look now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 FYI - the ECMWF snowfall maps from WeatherBell should no longer be as weenieish. PL/ZR now no longer gets "counted" as snow. The worthless maps that the weenies loved for years are now at least somewhat more useful. The ECM and GGEM/RGEM snow maps on WxBell are the least weenie-ish but the GFS/NAM are awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Looks like the GFS is going to go down with the ship...it blasts ORH-BOS northward in SNE with warning criteria snow. Still snow at 12z in both spots....this is an 18 hour forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 18z gfs and 18z nam are worlds apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Sort of makes me laugh that so many people loved using them for so long even though they were total garbage. Definitely a better look now. When did they change? I thought they've been decent all season based on the thermal levels you can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 18z gfs and 18z nam are worlds apart They're both probably wrong because they both stink. Take the middle road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 GFS back to a big WAA band of thump for this area. Talk about jumpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amc Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Sounds like on the pike up north is where the worst of it will be, I get to drive around all day in it tomorrow at work. The first storm always brings out the worst drivers and all those that didn't opt for snow tires yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Don't hate the NCAR ensemble look either. Seems pretty reasonable amounts for the expected evolution of warmth aloft. For reference the second blue color is 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Don't hate the NCAR ensemble look either. Seems pretty reasonable amounts for the expected evolution of warmth aloft. For reference the second blue color is 1-2" snowacc_mean_f048_NE.png Yeah that looks reasonable. Fits BTV's forecast of 6-8" northern Greens with 4-6" mountain valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yeah that looks reasonable. Fits BTV's forecast of 6-8" northern Greens with 4-6" mountain valleys. That site is very bullish on ice though. I'm wondering why exactly that's the case though. It has pockets of nearly an inch of ice for southern NH, I'm not sure this event is quite that much ice. But physically the ensemble makes sense. Low levels stay cold, 850 warms above freezing, dry slot delays until almost 21z. I'm just not sure that's how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Isentropic thump. GFS at 12z tomorrow, ripping 40-50 knots up from the surface front south of LI to 750 mb by the time a parcel reaches BGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Any thoughts on your colleague's icing forecast Ryan? Looks a bit aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Just saw that parts of mass and nh get a pretty good icestorm That site is very bullish on ice though. I'm wondering why exactly that's the case though. It has pockets of nearly an inch of ice for southern NH, I'm not sure this event is quite that much ice. But physically the ensemble makes sense. Low levels stay cold, 850 warms above freezing, dry slot delays until almost 21z. I'm just not sure that's how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.