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Late December miracle early next week!?


ineedsnow

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Yes. I'm running through the various models now.

 

HRRR is on the cool side, similar to the ARW and NMM. All models are really torchiest around 750 mb. RGEM is sleeting from BTV to PWM by 12z tomorrow.

 

Ok, I saw you just updated, RGEM has been warm the last 3-4 runs, I don't know how that model is with these types of events though.

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Ok, I saw you just updated, RGEM has been warm the last 3-4 runs, I don't know how that model is with these types of events though.

 

I tend to think it does a really good job on low level thermal field. It feels like it's designed with winter weather in mind, but I don't have a good feel for how it does with mid level temps. I've definitely seen situations where it is too aggressive there.

 

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FYI - the ECMWF snowfall maps from WeatherBell should no longer be as weenieish. PL/ZR now no longer gets "counted" as snow. The worthless maps that the weenies loved for years are now at least somewhat more useful. 

 

Just ran through the latest run, definitely the case. And definitely north of the Pike based on the Euro.

 

Maybe still a tick heavy on the southern edge of all snow, but it's not a bad look for a clown map.

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Just ran through the latest run, definitely the case. And definitely north of the Pike based on the Euro.

 

Maybe still a tick heavy on the southern edge of all snow, but it's not a bad look for a clown map.

 

Sort of makes me laugh that so many people loved using them for so long even though they were total garbage.

 

Definitely a better look now.

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FYI - the ECMWF snowfall maps from WeatherBell should no longer be as weenieish. PL/ZR now no longer gets "counted" as snow. The worthless maps that the weenies loved for years are now at least somewhat more useful.

The ECM and GGEM/RGEM snow maps on WxBell are the least weenie-ish but the GFS/NAM are awful.

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Yeah that looks reasonable. Fits BTV's forecast of 6-8" northern Greens with 4-6" mountain valleys.

 

That site is very bullish on ice though. I'm wondering why exactly that's the case though. It has pockets of nearly an inch of ice for southern NH, I'm not sure this event is quite that much ice.

 

But physically the ensemble makes sense. Low levels stay cold, 850 warms above freezing, dry slot delays until almost 21z. I'm just not sure that's how it plays out.

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Just saw that parts of mass and nh get a pretty good icestorm

That site is very bullish on ice though. I'm wondering why exactly that's the case though. It has pockets of nearly an inch of ice for southern NH, I'm not sure this event is quite that much ice.

 

But physically the ensemble makes sense. Low levels stay cold, 850 warms above freezing, dry slot delays until almost 21z. I'm just not sure that's how it plays out.

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