BTRWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 HM says this is a bootleg -ao/-nao not caused by the typical processes. But either way too much PV focus in recent years. Always wonder how something that was never big on the wx forums goes viral. When does something we say here ever go viral? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 When does something we say here ever go viral? well more it is an obscure subject even for a weather forum. but the media has largely used and abused it for clicks.. so it's not totally unexplainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Wow Ian. Weeklies are best just to not look. We lose the ao/nao/epo straight to the end and daily heights have shades of Dec with that stupid + anom to our NE again. Oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Jan 11 looks a bit better at the sfc mainly because of location but the background pattern on models is less favorable than it was a few days ago. I still wouldn't totally give up on it but it does seem somewhat a long shot to be anything of great value esp east of the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Wow Ian. Weeklies are best just to not look. We lose the ao/nao/epo straight to the end and daily heights have shades of Dec with that stupid + anom to our NE again. Oof Yeah just checking wxbell now after seeing note. Not so good. Everything breaks down pretty rapidly after d 15-16 or so. 1997-98 didn't work with blocking so maybe that was the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Jan 11 looks a bit better at the sfc mainly because of location but the background pattern on models is less favorable than it was a few days ago. I still wouldn't totally give up on it but it does seem somewhat a long shot to be anything of great value esp east of the mtns. For a HECS it doesn't look good, I can easily see a post frontal SW flow event on the 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Yeah just checking wxbell now after seeing note. Not so good. Everything breaks down pretty rapidly after d 15-16 or so. 1997-98 didn't work with blocking so maybe that was the problem. Oh goodie, so winter begins and ends with a 150hr storm threat next week? This subforum is going to be great to read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 18z GEFS snowfall mean D9-16 is 3" just to the N/W of 95/cities. 2" for cities. With all the doom and gloom in here, there's still potential to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Wow Ian. Weeklies are best just to not look. We lose the ao/nao/epo straight to the end and daily heights have shades of Dec with that stupid + anom to our NE again. Oof The weeklies have really struggled this year. They missed the December torch 3 weeks out and even got handled at H5 by the climate models (CFSV2, JMA, CanSIPS). In the back of the mind, I have the JMA and CanSIPS still insisting on a relatively cold January and February. Those models have been quite effective in the Nino years of the past. I suppose the NAO is a sincere wildcard for any of those models, but it's hard to panic yet. There are absolutely no signs of anything more than a brief pattern relaxation in 15 days (if that). We all knew this modeled cold wouldn't last for weeks on end. This is a super nino; we will have brief, and intense periods to score between now and March 15th. The important thing is we do not fall back to the ridiculous resilient ridge over New England. On another note, the 18z GEFS ensemble is arguably the best one of the year for snow lovers with measurable down to New Orleans (although that's not saying much). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Wait, a life preserver! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The weeklies have really struggled this year. They missed the December torch 3 weeks out and even got handled at H5 by the climate models (CFSV2, JMA, CanSIPS). In the back of the mind, I have the JMA and CanSIPS still insisting on a relatively cold January and February. Those models have been quite effective in the Nino years of the past. I suppose the NAO is a sincere wildcard for any of those models, but it's hard to panic yet. There are absolutely no signs of anything more than a brief pattern relaxation in 15 days (if that). We all knew this modeled cold wouldn't last for weeks on end. This is a super nino; we will have brief, and intense periods to score between now and March 15th. The important thing is we do not fall back to the ridiculous resilient ridge over New England. On another note, the 18z GEFS ensemble is arguably the best one of the year for snow lovers with measurable down to New Orleans (although that's not saying much). Good post and I'm not worried. I didn't expect this to be a big # of events or big snowfall winter going in. Would be nice to get on the board this month though. If we blank out mid month and relax last part of Jan then back loaded is an understatement if we do get a good period in Feb. Things seem pretty ripe for something coming up. I'd be happy with a plain vanilla 3-5" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Good post and I'm not worried. I didn't expect this to be a big # of events or big snowfall winter going in. Would be nice to get on the board this month though. If we blank out mid month and relax last part of Jan then back loaded is an understatement if we do get a good period in Feb. Things seem pretty ripe for something coming up. I'd be happy with a plain vanilla 3-5" event. I was going to say kind of the same thing. I don't think most expected wall-to-wall good pattern, but enough chances for some events. Perhaps even one memorable one. Not saying we'll get a HECS, but would not be surprised by a better than moderate event this year. As long as we don't go back to the December pattern at least, but have legitimate good periods through about mid-March. I'm good with a back-loaded winter; heck, I thought last year was memorable for that 4 week period in Feb-Mar alone. In that event, I don't much care that Dec being +11.5 overwhelms the overall mean winter temperature (which it almost certainly will no matter what anyhow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Update from AER today- I found it to be a more interesting read than usual, and those who need some "cheering up" might like their final image at the bottom. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Update from AER today- I found it to be a more interesting read than usual, and those who need some "cheering up" might like their final image at the bottom. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation tl;dr: cold through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Speaking of feeling cheered up, I'm definitely sounding like a weenie but I'm not putting much faith in the Euro Weeklies. I don't think they are particularly good forecasting tools this winter and they have a pretty bad track record based on what I've read in other sub forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 FWIW.... this is somewhat depressing Blocking A new kid has shown up on the block for January and it’s known as “blocking”. This signifies large areas of high pressure stalling out to our far north, for example in Alaska, the North Pole, and Greenland. When that happens, it helps transport cold air southward in our general direction. In a normal winter, we would be blasting headlines about a massive, sustainable cold winter pattern. But this is not a normal winter and the powerful tropical Pacific super El Niño should frequently act to offset the typically colder blocking influences. This happened in January 1998 too when blocking over the North Pole (negative Arctic Oscillation) was prevented from affecting the U.S. as much and the pattern stayed warm-dominated. We expect this blocking to bring some cold into our area (like early this week and again later next week), but its duration and intensity should be more limited thanks to El Niño. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/04/january-outlook-more-like-winter-but-still-milder-than-normal-with-limited-snow-chances/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 It's like a heartbeat or breathing. High latitudes flex then nino flexes back. Just gotta get lucky. Looking back at strong nino cold outbreaks tonight it does seem many look like the next one ahead. Dumps from western Canada into the Plains with it spreading east while moderating a bit. 1973 had a pretty similar looking period as did 1966 and others. 1998 was never truly cold in Jan... Think we will see colder this year without problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 2nd low is much different, It forms earlier when the 1st low is directly north, so you get a strung out warm mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 2nd low is much different, It forms earlier when the 1st low is directly north, so you get a strung out warm mess. Yep, you get a cold front. And my oh my that cold air behind it means business! Should be a nice overrunning surface for the unicorn storm, you know the storm, after the storm, after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 GFS still loves the 17th. Mini hurricane spinning off Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 next (pattern change or wave) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 This is a really good look. Ten days out of course, but at least something to hang your hats on... Highzenberg (not to be confused with Heisenberg), always keeping hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 2nd low is much different, It forms earlier when the 1st low is directly north, so you get a strung out warm mess. northern stream dominant like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Jan 15-20 is the best window right now, before that looks like the thermal profiles are wrecked by the low in the lakes and after that could go either way IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Jan 15-20 is the best window right now, before that looks like the thermal profiles are wrecked by the low in the lakes and after that could go either way IMO That's the way it looks right now but on an unrelated note can anyone remember the last time we had a decent event centered around those dates in January. Despite the period between the 10th and 20th of January being right in the heart of meteorological winter it has not produced. It's late so maybe I am missing some storms that happened but I just can't think of any right now that were better than minor or very low end moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 That's the way it looks right now but on an unrelated note can anyone remember the last time we had a decent event centered around those dates in January. Despite the period between the 10th and 20th of January being right in the heart of meteorological winter it has not produced. It's late so maybe I am missing some storms that happened but I just can't think of any right now that were better than minor or very low end moderate. That's a good question... I don't think it's happened ever since I started following weather in January 2002. Wow. Seems like 1/12/1996 and 1/20/2000 are the most recent examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 That's a good question... I don't think it's happened ever since I started following weather in January 2002. Wow. Seems like 1/12/1996 and 1/20/2000 are the most recent examples. 2011 and a few small events in 2014 but that's about it for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 It's not the best night to fight sleep to await the euro, but it's already almost time anyway, so I'll give it a go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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