Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Seeing NCrain post above about snow in January 1940 ,which looked awesome by the way,I went and looked at January 1985. I remember that month being very very cold. I went back and looked at December 1984 and it was warm very warm .The site showed Salisbury had a high of 79 degrees in December 1984. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 What's the Euro showing? Still cold ? Any fantasy chances at day 10?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Seeing NCrain post above about snow in January 1940 ,which looked awesome by the way,I went and looked at January 1985. I remember that month being very very cold. I went back and looked at December 1984 and it was warm very warm .The site showed Salisbury had a high of 79 degrees in December 1984. Not a bad observation at all! Now, let's hope and pray: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 ^^ Post Script - Though IMBY there ware noticeable differences between this year and for late '83 and (maybe) into '84: Relative to the average, the hottest day was January 31. The high temperature that day was 83°F, compared to the average of 67°F, a difference of 16°F. In relative terms the warmest month was November, with an average high temperature of 80°F, compared to an typical value of 74°F. The longest warm spell was from February 18 to March 17, constituting 28 consecutive days with warmer than average high temperatures. The month of October had the largest fraction of warmer than average days with 84% days with higher than average high temperatures. Temperature The daily low (blue) and high (red) temperature during 1985 with the area between them shaded gray and superimposed over the corresponding averages (thick lines), and with percentile bands (inner band from 25th to 75th percentile, outer band from 10th to 90th percentile). The bar at the top of the graph is red where both the daily high and low are above average, blue where they are both below average, and white otherwise. The coldest day of 1985 was January 21, with a low temperature of 10°F. For reference, on that day the average low temperature is 43°F and the low temperature drops below 30°F only one day in ten. The coldest month of 1985 was January with an average daily low temperature of 37°F. Relative to the average, the coldest day was January 21. The low temperature that day was 10°F, compared to the average of 43°F, a difference of 33°F. In relative terms the coldest month was January, with an average low temperature of 37°F, compared to an typical value of 43°F. The longest cold spell was from December 14 to December 24, constituting 11 consecutive days with cooler than average low temperatures. The month of January had the largest fraction of cooler than average days with 71% days with lower than average low temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 While we're reminiscing about January 1985, that was the year with the epic "Coldest Day" cold snap. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_1985_cold_wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Snowfall from 1940... Mostly due to the Jan 23-24 snowstorm. From 8" in Atlanta to 21" in Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The Force Awakens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Congrats TX panhandle....again! Very impressive system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 18z GEFS has to be off the charts -AO, never seen that much red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 That storm is gonna be impressive to watch as it really gets going tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I think jb and crew were right about Texas. Let's hope their February is right as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 18z GEFS has to be off the charts -AO, never seen that much red. Still nothing wintry précis wise showing up on the op runs at this point. At least the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Still nothing wintry précis wise showing up on the op runs at this point. At least the GFS My guess is it will still probably later into Jan, if this pattern evolves as we hope. Good news is the models are attacking the PV and trying to establish blocking. For whatever reason we tend to start seeing events materialize after the 15th of winters lately, atleast for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Still nothing wintry précis wise showing up on the op runs at this point. At least the GFSit's the trends. It's a stark contrast to being 70 degrees in winter. You don't want to see a raging snowstorm at hour 300 anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 it's the trends. It's a stark contrast to being 70 degrees in winter. You don't want to see a raging snowstorm at hour 300 anyway.With all the energy flying around, it will be hard to key in on a storm along way out. May be a sneaky event with only 2-3 day notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I think jb and crew were right about Texas. Let's hope their February is right as well. That's what I'm talking about...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 There has to be a decent wind event on the horizon between now and next Friday with the airmass change that's coming. The ground is beyond saturated and should stay in that current state through the weekend with more rain to come. This needs to be watched. Easy to get 30 to 40 mph gust down here in piedmont and higher up 50 isn't uncommon with big cold fronts in the winter. Be suprised if there aren't alot of power outages when this scenerio unfolds next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 This is what I want for Christmas... Wow at the blocking.. Too bad it's 384 hours out on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 For the CFSv2 folks -- CFSv2 making some drastic teleconnection changes: Most impressive, the AO tanks, the 00z 12/25 run was mostly positive Additionally, the NAO goes negative and remains neutral, the 00z 12/25 run was mostly neutral...PNA remains positive throughout run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 6z GFS still shows the drop in temps coming this weekend. After that there's no particular fantasy storm but it looks like there could be possibilities. Maybe even a clipper could provide something with the deep eastern trough (..time will only tell). The important thing is it looks like the cold is really coming. Even if we stay cold and dry for a week or so it could then lay the foundation for a storm later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The cool down to me looks unimpressive next week, at least it will be near normal. Then looks like we semi warm up again per 6z GFS. YUK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 For the CFSv2 folks -- CFSv2 making some drastic teleconnection changes: Most impressive, the AO tanks, the 00z 12/25 run was mostly positive Additionally, the NAO goes negative and remains neutral, the 00z 12/25 run was mostly neutral...PNA remains positive throughout run. Dude you have went ham on the graphs this winter. Appreciate your hard work and all the good info. Things are def looking good for the next month or 2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 From WxSouth on FB There's lots coming up regarding a major change, a fundamental pattern shift across North America. The New Year will see the shift occur and I won't be surprised if a Winter Storm threat shows up from Texas to the Carolinas or Virginia much earlier than any models are showing right now. The culprit? Retrograding flow in North America. This happened two or 3 times last Fall, and all led to major events in the Southern US. Now we'll see what it delivers "Winter style". The Arctic Oscillation will shift from extreme positive values to extreme negative values soon (That is a warming Arctic, which means much colder Eastern United States). A Western trough gets replaced with massive Western Ridge that eventually reaches the Arctic. More and More jet energy in the Pacific will hit that ridge and be forced underneath. We will have to watch energy near the Baja region, and energy toppling down the Rockies , that may back the flow out of the Gulf of Mexico, when cold high pressure is pressing down in the central and especially Southern US. Graphics and animations at my site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The cool down to me looks unimpressive next week, at least it will be near normal. Then looks like we semi warm up again per 6z GFS. YUKIt's a drastic change from having highs in the 70s. It looks like we will be below normal and that means a lot at the moment. Also it's very impressive at this point that the pattern is changing so early in January when at the beginning of the week it looked like we may torch through most of January. It's all relative. What's not impressive to you may be impressive to someone else. Just getting out of this horrible pattern we have been stuck in for months is impressive to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Pattern change is happening a little earlier than I expected and obviously the changes being show (still day 10+) look really good with the blocking showing up. I am hoping/expecting that after mid Jan we start seeing the southern plains/southeast trough build instead of the sw trough. Makes me nervous being this optimistic for post Jan 20th fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 It's a drastic change from having highs in the 70s. It looks like we will be below normal and that means a lot at the moment. Also it's very impressive at this point that the pattern is changing so early in January when at the beginning of the week it looked like we may torch through most of January. It's all relative. What's not impressive to you may be impressive to someone else. Just getting out of this horrible pattern we have been stuck in for months is impressive to me.Exactly! I remember a week ago , all the nay Sayers saying " it'll be mid January before the flip, and it's finally showing up on the 384 hr of GFS , but it always rushes the change"! Now we are going to be at or below normal by Jan 1st, and that is an amazingly quick turnaround , IMO ! Whether we have wintry threats or not, just knowing a colder/ normal pattern is coming, is great news, and it looks to sustain for a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Pretty amazing we have seen the higher heights in the east and SW trough as the predominate pattern since Nov and that looks to continue through mid Jan. Yeah we are getting some blocking to develop but the trough in the SW has been persistent and that doesn't look to change the next 2 weeks. It's why I don't believe we see wintery threats until after Jan 20th or so and still think we finish Jan right at neutral to slightly AN for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 It's a drastic change from having highs in the 70s. It looks like we will be below normal and that means a lot at the moment. Also it's very impressive at this point that the pattern is changing so early in January when at the beginning of the week it looked like we may torch through most of January. It's all relative. What's not impressive to you may be impressive to someone else. Just getting out of this horrible pattern we have been stuck in for months is impressive to me. I just hope that it comes to fruition. How many times have we been disappointed in the past? Things get pushed back to 384 hours, etc. I totally agree with you, this pattern right now is the worst I have seen in my entire life, and I am much older than most of you, I am sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Pattern change is happening a little earlier than I expected and obviously the changes being show (still day 10+) look really good with the blocking showing up. I am hoping/expecting that after mid Jan we start seeing the southern plains/southeast trough build instead of the sw trough. Makes me nervous being this optimistic for post Jan 20th fun Man, just enjoy the pattern change to normal, before you start worrying about how we get screwed in 15 days! The pattern change, IT'S HAPPENING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 What impacts will this have on the moisture being directed towards the US? Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) 12/26/15, 09:30 The strongest low frequency forcing in the tropics is now forecast to shift 35 degrees of longitude west to 165W. pic.twitter.com/E1cJEwTtNn If I read Michael's comments correctly in Twitter, it should lead to more moisture into Southern California. He is with WSI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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