JoshM Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Cold high temps actually within reach! Jammin' January FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Great write up snowlover91. Yup! Snowlover with a great post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 One last point I forgot to add.. In regards to 1957-58 the PV was quite strong in December but featured strong warming in January with an SSW occurring January 30th. Here is an excellent article showing the SSW from 1958-2010 and what type of phase (El Nino, La Niña or neutral) was ongoing at the time. http://gacc.nifc.gov/sacc/predictive/SOLAR_WEATHER-CLIMATE_STUDIES/ENSO%20and%20Stratospheric%20Warmings%20Butler%202011May.pdf January 1958 warming GFS forecast for January 4th (warming in same region and similar setup) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 One last point I forgot to add.. In regards to 1957-58 the PV was quite strong in December but featured strong warming in January with an SSW occurring January 30th. Here is an excellent article showing the SSW from 1958-2010 and what type of phase (El Nino, La Niña or neutral) was ongoing at the time. http://gacc.nifc.gov/sacc/predictive/SOLAR_WEATHER-CLIMATE_STUDIES/ENSO%20and%20Stratospheric%20Warmings%20Butler%202011May.pdf January 1958 warming image.png GFS forecast for January 4th (warming in same region and similar setup) image.png I've been posting screenshots of that article in this thread, good paper on ENSO state and SSW. How did you measure the strength of the PV for 57-58? The data I have (temp, flux, wind) only goes back to 79... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 One last point I forgot to add.. In regards to 1957-58 the PV was quite strong in December but featured strong warming in January with an SSW occurring January 30th. Here is an excellent article showing the SSW from 1958-2010 and what type of phase (El Nino, La Niña or neutral) was ongoing at the time. http://gacc.nifc.gov/sacc/predictive/SOLAR_WEATHER-CLIMATE_STUDIES/ENSO%20and%20Stratospheric%20Warmings%20Butler%202011May.pdf January 1958 warming image.png GFS forecast for January 4th (warming in same region and similar setup) image.png I've been posting screenshots of that article in this thread, good paper on ENSO state and SSW. How did you measure the strength of the PV for 57-58? The data I have (temp, flux, wind) only goes back to 79... Another good article looks at QBO/SSW relationship and the reason I felt in Nov it would be a struggle. Obviously models are getting aggressive with displacement so we will see but with current qbo/solar combo we are in (w-QBO/solar<150sfu) is the toughest combination. But, I still thought we would just see a delayed (late Jan/Feb) AO reversal with this inhibiting factor. As you see from Fig 19, 1958 had similar QBO but high solar which is a better combination for disturbed/weaken PV. I know that DT had a few tweets about the potential for w-QBO to move to neutral as winter progressed but I don't know for sure how that is progressing. http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/baldwin0101.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I've been posting screenshots of that article in this thread, good paper on ENSO state and SSW. How did you measure the strength of the PV for 57-58? The data I have (temp, flux, wind) only goes back to 79... I used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis where it shows the anomaly for different levels. In December the PV was well below normal, off the scale, at the 10mb level, which would indicate it's much stronger than usual. In January it's still quite strong but you can see the strong warming beginning over Siberia. By February after the SSW occurs that region is now above normal indicating the split and weakening of the PV. I couldn't find any specific numbers either for it so that only left the NCEP/NCER reanalysis maps like I posted above. I also used their anomaly maps at 10mb which shows quite well how much above or below normal the PV is. All in all the PV of 1957-1958 appears as if it may have been quite strong but demonstrated a nice split by late January. Even with the strong PV January averaged slightly BN across the SE and when you combined 58 and 83 you get a 2-4C below average anomaly across the South. I think we see similar conditions this January with a SSW sometime this month, possibly much sooner than what we saw in 58. My guess would be mid-January for the split or dislodging of the PV but it could happen even sooner if the forecast warming by the GFS verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Fwiw Cohen is talking about a SSW the second week of January . Of course e has been talking about a SSW since last winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Another good article looks at QBO/SSW relationship and the reason I felt in Nov it would be a struggle. Obviously models are getting aggressive with displacement so we will see but with current qbo/solar combo we are in (w-QBO/solar<150sfu) is the toughest combination. But, I still thought we would just see a delayed (late Jan/Feb) AO reversal with this inhibiting factor. As you see from Fig 19, 1958 had similar QBO but high solar which is a better combination for disturbed/weaken PV. I know that DT had a few tweets about the potential for w-QBO to move to neutral as winter progressed but I don't know for sure how that is progressing. http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/baldwin0101.pdf Nice I got some reading material when things slow down today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Well the Euro is on board. GFS is no longer alone with a dive in the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Another good article looks at QBO/SSW relationship and the reason I felt in Nov it would be a struggle. Obviously models are getting aggressive with displacement so we will see but with current qbo/solar combo we are in (w-QBO/solar<150sfu) is the toughest combination. But, I still thought we would just see a delayed (late Jan/Feb) AO reversal with this inhibiting factor. As you see from Fig 19, 1958 had similar QBO but high solar which is a better combination for disturbed/weaken PV. I know that DT had a few tweets about the potential for w-QBO to move to neutral as winter progressed but I don't know for sure how that is progressing. http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/baldwin0101.pdf Core of the +QBO is currently located between 30mb and 50mb. I'd say the best way to view the QBO for this winter is that we are on the backside of the +QBO phase (we are past the +QBO peak). Here's a bit more recent paper on the QBO/Solar relationship - http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/publikationen/docs/Labitzke-Kunze_CAWSES_TERRAPUB2009.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Beautiful, Jon! Man, if we could just go ahead and get the NAO to cooperate, we could be in for a BIG (WOOF) surprise. BUT right now I think we're all happy to have the indicies that we DO have on our side and finally coming together, be it transient or not. Fab Feb may be full of nice gifts. In other news, no real wintry threats on the GFS through the next two weeks per the 0z/6z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Core of the +QBO is currently located between 30mb and 50mb. I'd say the best way to view the QBO for this winter is that we are on the backside of the +QBO phase (we are past the +QBO peak). Here's a bit more recent paper on the QBO/Solar relationship - http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/publikationen/docs/Labitzke-Kunze_CAWSES_TERRAPUB2009.pdf If I am reading this correct for Jan, 10hpa will be negative, 30hpa will be sub 10 and 50 will be around 10m/s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Beautiful, Jon! Man, if we could just go ahead and get the NAO to cooperate, we could be in for a BIG (WOOF) surprise. BUT right now I think we're all happy to have the indicies that we DO have on our side and finally coming together, be it transient or not. Fab Feb may be full of nice gifts. In other news, no real wintry threats on the GFS through the next two weeks per the 0z/6z runs. Well next Friday/Saturday the PNA ridge is established and both the Euro/GFS have a digging low, it would need to dig more and sharpen up...long shot but something to look for. So day 7-10 would be nice to have some overrunning event, but that is a total wishcast. For whatever reason, atleast for central NC our snowy events have tend to occurred after mid-Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 12Z GFS hints at some possible ptype issues for central/eastern NC around Jan 2 wouldnt be much but just seeing a few flakes would be nice...its "only" 7-8 days out but more than likely it would be cold chasing moisture....still nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 ^Ron, all we need is for the energy to dig more and we would be in business for some light overrunning snow on the back of that system. Being 7+ days out there will be some changes and hopefully they'll trend in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 12z GEFS...Impressive blocking, impressive Aleutian low position persistent SE trough day 8+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 If I am reading this correct for Jan, 10hpa will be negative, 30hpa will be sub 10 and 50 will be around 10m/s? Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 ^That's an impressive looking ensemble run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 ^That's an impressive looking ensemble run! Getting way ahead of myself as this blocking being modeled is still day 9+ still but this is getting that 1940 look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Snowfall from 1940... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Would love a repeat of that! I guess it's time to renew my WeatherBell subscription. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 12Z GFS hints at some possible ptype issues for central/eastern NC around Jan 2 wouldnt be much but just seeing a few flakes would be nice...its "only" 7-8 days out but more than likely it would be cold chasing moisture....still nice to see. gfs__31.png gfs__32.png Feel like that could come west a bit..maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Snowfall from 1940... Yes.. Please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 One of the best Christmas presents of the day to come in here and read some of these posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 One of the best Christmas presents of the day to come in here and read some of these posts?Yep the whole attitude of the board is much lighter. Really great trends and some great posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Getting way ahead of myself as this blocking being modeled is still day 9+ still but this is getting that 1940 look... Just out of curiosity, what did Dec 1939 look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Just out of curiosity, what did Dec 1939 look like? http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd2606:a000:4583:8500:b0dc:c038:f37a:3d86.358.12.22.38.prcp.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Just out of curiosity, what did Dec 1939 look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 12Z CMC was interesting and a lot different than the Euro/GFS sooooo its most likely also a lot wrong....has fairly big over running event for a lot of places that normally don't get em out in TX etc and looks to be a threat with ice/snow to parts of the SE as well but the run ends before it shows that.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015122512&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yep the whole attitude of the board is much lighter. Really great trends and some great posts. Yep the whole attitude of the board is much lighter. Really great trends and some great posts. ...and the weather spirits have done it all in one night!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.