griteater Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The VP forcing moving west is a good thing. It moved east thru winter in 83 & 98. Most encouraging thing to see on the ensembles right now is the Alaska ridging given we are in a super nino. We should start to see some cold highs coming down with that configuration, but the southern Greenland cold gyre will act to limit the cold push into the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I just hope that it comes to fruition. How many times have we been disappointed in the past? Things get pushed back to 384 hours, etc. I totally agree with you, this pattern right now is the worst I have seen in my entire life, and I am much older than most of you, I am sure. Without the NAO cooperating and the trough a bit too far to the east we are left with cool intrusions and dry air. Maybe the occasional clipper that will scoot by to the north never really amplifying because of the NAO. So we trade record warmth for seasonal. Great but tired of waiting after punting an entire month of met winter. It is what it is I guess...soup sandwich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Without the NAO cooperating and the trough a bit too far to the east we are left with cool intrusions and dry air. Maybe the occasional clipper that will scoot by to the north never really amplifying because of the NAO. So we trade record warmth for seasonal. Great but tired of waiting after punting an entire month of met winter. It is what it is I guess...soup sandwich.We did really well last year with no -NAO , and having to wait till Feb for any wintry weather, so , I think we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Think we got about a weeks worth of warm temps left. Long as the MJO keeps advancing and staying amplified,pattern will change. +QBO/solar minimum is still a decent match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Without the NAO cooperating and the trough a bit too far to the east we are left with cool intrusions and dry air. Maybe the occasional clipper that will scoot by to the north never really amplifying because of the NAO. So we trade record warmth for seasonal. Great but tired of waiting after punting an entire month of met winter. It is what it is I guess...soup sandwich. Sometimes people will complain about anything. There is NO chance for snow here when you have a pattern like what we've seen recently. Sure the pattern the first week of January may not be perfect for snow, we rarely get a perfect pattern with all indices lining up. The key is cold will finally be around and we will have opportunities to cash in. As we progress through January and into February the pattern will continue getting colder and more favorable as well. Plenty of energy in the STJ and enough cold around to provide a good snow. Canadian hinting at something around January 4th with a GOM low and overrunning precip nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Sometimes people will complain about anything. There is NO chance for snow here when you have a pattern like what we've seen recently. Sure the pattern the first week of January may not be perfect for snow, we rarely get a perfect pattern with all indices lining up. The key is cold will finally be around and we will have opportunities to cash in. As we progress through January and into February the pattern will continue getting colder and more favorable as well. Plenty of energy in the STJ and enough cold around to provide a good snow. Canadian hinting at something around January 4th with a GOM low and overrunning precip nearby. Agree on all points. We will all just wait and see what comes of it. Just tired of waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I've got a definite pattern change down here already. A foot of rain since the 11th, and record heat. 76.8 at present. Pushing that kind of moisture into surface cold just screams zr. I'd like to see a bit less than an inch or two each system, lol, heading into the cold pattern. 33 and heavy rain I can deal with, but over two inches freezing on the ground and in the trees, is no fun Conversely, if the whole column gets cold and pushes two inches liquid into that....well, that's my dream. Two inches of rain turned into sleet, or snow. Funny how close to disaster you have to dance to get to paradise, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Agree on all points. We will all just wait and see what comes of it. Just tired of waiting. The wait will be worth it, I think by late February many on this board will be quite happy with the results January and February should be fun and the first step is the pattern change, just a few days away now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I just hope that it comes to fruition. How many times have we been disappointed in the past? Things get pushed back to 384 hours, etc. I totally agree with you, this pattern right now is the worst I have seen in my entire life, and I am much older than most of you, I am sure. I know this is a thread for looking forward , but given the historic nature of the recent pattern, perhaps the moderators won't mind if I initiate a brief discussion the topic. I'm not a met but an electrical engineer who is often involved in the failure analysis of products, trying to figure out the chain of events which lead to an undesired result. In so far as the question is meaningful, I want to understand why this pattern occurred. Perhaps more scientifically it might be phrased as "what atmospheric dynamics were in place which lead to the extreme anomalous warmth over eastern North America this past week"? I have heard several things mentioned: El Nino, a northward-displaced jet stream, lack of blocking (AO/NAO +), an anomalously strong high pressure over the west Atlantic (this last has been repeatedly mentioned in the RAH area forecast discussion). I guess what perplexes me is that in the past we have had all of those things before, and they did not lead to a pattern like we are currently in. What was different this time? Was it a combination of many bad factors which, individually would have led to merely a mild week, but together caused an apocalypse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I know this is a thread for looking forward , but given the historic nature of the recent pattern, perhaps the moderators won't mind if I initiate a brief discussion the topic. I'm not a met but an electrical engineer who is often involved in the failure analysis of products, trying to figure out the chain of events which lead to an undesired result. In so far as the question is meaningful, I want to understand why this pattern occurred. Perhaps more scientifically it might be phrased as "what atmospheric dynamics were in place which lead to the extreme anomalous warmth over eastern North America this past week"? I have heard several things mentioned: El Nino, a northward-displaced jet stream, lack of blocking (AO/NAO +), an anomalously strong high pressure over the west Atlantic (this last has been repeatedly mentioned in the RAH area forecast discussion). I guess what perplexes me is that in the past we have had all of those things before, and they did not lead to a pattern like we are currently in. What was different this time? Was it a combination of many bad factors which, individually would have led to merely a mild week, but together caused an apocalypse? I'm certainly not an expert and could likely be wrong, but here is my take. During El Niño winters it's common to have strong ridging occur in December which warms most if not all of the country well above normal. This is especially amplified in a strong El Niño from what I've seen in my research which leads me to believe the El Niño is one of the leading contributors to ridging across the US during the month of December. Since this one was one of the strongest El Ninos we've had it would follow logically that the blocking in December would be stronger than usual leading to greater warmth than we would typically see. Also the strength of the PV has likely been another factor. When it's strong in November-December it keeps the cold air bottled up which leads to a milder pattern, especially in December when a mild pattern is already favored due to El Niño. As the PV breaks down it allows colder air to balance out the areas that were previously warm and the blocking typically relocates, as we see models showing for January. In general my take is that a combination of a strong PV and strong El Niño combined to create a torch for December. The QBO phase may also have something to do with it and other factors but I do not know much about them. I could be wrong on all this but that's my take from what I've learned and found in my research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I agree with what you wrote snowlover. Record strong nino and record strong early strat PV, along with warm Dec nino climo. The Nov-Dec averaged AO is going to end up being a top 3 highest since 1950. Also, it's been warm almost everywhere in the northern hemisphere over the past several months, so there's a warm background ongoing too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 People are saying Nino climo means a warm December but our only snow in the 97-98 winter came in December. Also there was a big snow event in Mid December deep into parts of MS and AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 People are saying Nino climo means a warm December but our only snow in the 97-98 winter came in December. Also there was a big snow event in Mid December deep into parts of MS and AL.I'll humor you, cause I'm bored! If it's been said once, it's been said a thousand times! This is nothing like the 97/98 El Niño ! Keep trolling! I hope Atlanta gets a 12" storm and Carrollton gets flurries! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Great writeup... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/page-4#entry3813379 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 People are saying Nino climo means a warm December but our only snow in the 97-98 winter came in December. Also there was a big snow event in Mid December deep into parts of MS and AL.Dec 97 went against the grain of nino climo. It happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Dude you have went ham on the graphs this winter. Appreciate your hard work and all the good info. Things are def looking good for the next month or 2!Thanks man I appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Cmc keeps beating drum for some fun and games next weekend. I ain't firing up the bus yet, but might have to go locate the keys if it's still barking tomorrow into monday. Like Roberts facebook post above. Lot of energy flying around 1st 10 days of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Cmc keeps beating drum for some fun and games next weekend. I ain't firing up the bus yet, but might have to go locate the keys if it's still barking tomorrow into monday. Like Roberts facebook post above. Lot of energy flying around 1st 10 days of January. You mean NYD weekend? I was hoping that would yield something. GFS not as enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Great writeup... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/page-4#entry3813379 Yep a great read for everyone. Isotherm and Don have done an excellent job this early season. Also backs up this is a significant pattern change coming up even if it's not bone chilling cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Euro and GFS starting to pick up on the storm the CMC has for January 4-5th range. The CMC has it too far suppressed to give anyone in NC or SC any issues but it's very close and wouldn't take much of an adjustment north to put us at risk for some wintry weather. GFS and Euro went from no precip to hinting at some along the Gulf states which is a step in the right direction. Could be the first legit threat of trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Euro and GFS starting to pick up on the storm the CMC has for January 4-5th range. The CMC has it too far suppressed to give anyone in NC or SC any issues but it's very close and wouldn't take much of an adjustment north to put us at risk for some wintry weather. GFS and Euro went from no precip to hinting at some along the Gulf states which is a step in the right direction. Could be the first legit threat of trends continue.Right where we want it at this point! NW trend, want it in Cuba ! Get the cold down here and we will take our chances with precip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Euro and GFS starting to pick up on the storm the CMC has for January 4-5th range. The CMC has it too far suppressed to give anyone in NC or SC any issues but it's very close and wouldn't take much of an adjustment north to put us at risk for some wintry weather. GFS and Euro went from no precip to hinting at some along the Gulf states which is a step in the right direction. Could be the first legit threat of trends continue. Trough axis is way too far to the east at this point. I hate to say it but I just don't see anything but cold/dry which seems ironic in a Nino pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I agree with what you wrote snowlover. Record strong nino and record strong early strat PV, along with warm Dec nino climo. The Nov-Dec averaged AO is going to end up being a top 3 highest since 1950. Also, it's been warm almost everywhere in the northern hemisphere over the past several months, so there's a warm background ongoing too I appreciate your input snowlover and griteater. So perhaps it was a confluence of independent factors that came together in the perfect storm, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Also keep in mind with the models sorting this pattern out it is extremely possible that a storm could slip under their noses and pop up on us 3-4 days out. In a week the pattern change will be upon us which is always a ripe time for a big system or even just a small one lol. With so much energy transitioning in the upper atmosphere models can miss storms so I won't be surprised at all to see a storm surprise us in the first week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 As if in answer to my question, I found this interesting article on FiveThirtyEight.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Trough axis is way too far to the east at this point. I hate to say it but I just don't see anything but cold/dry which seems ironic in a Nino pattern. Yes but this is 7-8 days out and storms have a tendency to trend NW at this range. They've been doing it for years and I've noticed the same tendency this winter so far also. Not saying this one will but the trough axis will likely be different than modeled and the CMC solution with a slight northward bump would be wintry for many. It doesn't take many changes and even light overrunning precip can happen. The key is we now have a good pattern establishing that will get better as January progresses and then February will be great, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I am learning a lot about Nino patterns this season. I guess I expected this steady stream of STJ but the models would indicate otherwise at least for now. Almost looks like a Nina pattern upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The VP forcing moving west is a good thing. It moved east thru winter in 83 & 98. Most encouraging thing to see on the ensembles right now is the Alaska ridging given we are in a super nino. We should start to see some cold highs coming down with that configuration, but the southern Greenland cold gyre will act to limit the cold push into the southeast Yeah, do need to get that gyre shove out of there, preferably southeastward and setup a textbook -nao. Although, as far as here in the upper se, a positive nao didn't hurt late last winter as we got down to -16 Feb. 20th and recorded nearly 40" snow in 3weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I am learning a lot about Nino patterns this season. I guess I expected this steady stream of STJ but the models would indicate otherwise at least for now. Almost looks like a Nina pattern upcoming.During Dec we've had a pattern that has seen elements of both nino and nina. Going forward however the ensembles are showing a very nino-like pattern, especially with the North Pacific / Aleutian Low and +PNA. I would expect us to see more southern stream as we get later into Jan and into Feb & Mar. Having said that, it's still not easy for ninos to pump out the money pattern of split flow with an active southern stream, especially in absence of high latitude blocking that suppresses the storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 00z GFS Ensemble is pretty sweet in the extended and keeps getting better. It has the aforementioned, text book split flow pattern with -EPO, +PNA, and increasing high latitude blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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