NCSNOW Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Euro ensembles and the lower heights over the lower 48 , GOM scream Johnny reb big dog. Not a question of if but when. Some posters are gonna get a 10+ storm out of this. If I was forced to name the region it would be NC northern coastal plain 1st, Mountains close 2cnd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 12z Euro went crazy with the -AO...wow, been a long time since I saw this from the Euro If this comes to pass, grab the long johns. The EPO is forecast to get to -150 to -200 during this time and the PNA is forecast to be positive as well. Those actually scream arctic outbreak in the East with such a deeply negative AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Sorry if these belong somewhere else Sent from my iPhone Legit looking pattern on Euro Ensemble in the extended range with storms beginning to crash into S California then moving east. Would be a crazy reversal from Dec if true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 you'll be back at work by then - climate controlled environment, with enough to keep you occupied .... enjoy while can - summer vacation and 'cane season isn't that far off (relatively) ......2 weeks off isn't enough! I'll be looking for some snow days! Looks wet the next few days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Just no getting around a trough buried in the southwest, classic head fake, cold first week of Jan then a relax with AN temps for a period...hopefully we get into a good pattern post Jan 20th. Hard to believe this is +PNA/-EPO/-AO and we get well above temps in the east. Still lots of good things occurring with blocking/strat. Depiction looks screwy considering all the high lat. Blocking. Ec ensembles look right with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Legit looking pattern on Euro Ensemble in the extended range with storms beginning to crash into S California then moving east. Would be a crazy reversal from Dec if true So-Cali looks to get going soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 And everyone's favorite...wait for it...hour 384 from the 18z gfs: There's no shame in my game! Y'all enjoy the fantasy love! Only 16 days away! Prepare for glory! Perfect. I get back from vacation on the 10th, so I'm all in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Perfect. I get back from vacation on the 10th, so I'm all in! Next!! Great Lakes low is gonna kill us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Next!! Great Lakes low is gonna kill us! That's so 2014-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Perfect. I get back from vacation on the 10th, so I'm all in! Well, since y'all are playing that game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Well, since y'all are playing that game... What's the DGEX showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I'm still thinking we see a storm January 10-15th timeframe. Models indicating a huge plunge of the AO/NAO and spike in PNA during this time and usually big changes like this bring a big storm as well. Could be a widespread Arctic outbreak along with overrunning precip and/or Gulf low that moves up the coast. Just my take on things based on model data, expected transition of the pattern/indices and analogs as well. Euro Ensembles look good btw, good signs and hints at snow January 7-12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Past couple of runs of the GFS not seeing a prolonged cool down for the SE until maybe very late in the LR. If true we could be looking at mid January for any wintery threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Past couple of runs of the GFS not seeing a prolonged cool down for the SE until maybe very late in the LR. If true we could be looking at mid January for any wintery threats. Yep, it's putting the trough axis too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Next!! Great Lakes low is gonna kill us! 06x GFS agrees with you......it's a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Past couple of runs of the GFS not seeing a prolonged cool down for the SE until maybe very late in the LR. If true we could be looking at mid January for any wintery threats.Not worried about that happening since Euro and its ensembles still show a good pattern and in fact have trended better after January 9th. GFS struggles during transition periods or volatile weather patterns. Look at the verification scores below and you can see at times it struggles in a big way vs the Euro. The first week of January there will be a "warmup" to seasonal or slightly above but that will be transient and after January 10th the cold pattern should be fully locked in. It's normal to have some transient warmth especially at the beginning of a pattern change. It's best to go with a blend of GFS/Euro ensembles during pattern changes especially in the LR. The GEFS at hour 240 has most of the nation at or slightly below average whereas the comparable GFS run at the same time has only the western half of the US cold. In short the GFS is struggling as usual with the pattern change right now especially outside the 6-7 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Not worried about that happening since Euro and its ensembles still show a good pattern and in fact have trended better after January 9th. GFS struggles during transition periods or volatile weather patterns. Look at the verification scores below and you can see at times it struggles in a big way vs the Euro. The first week of January there will be a "warmup" to seasonal or slightly above but that will be transient and after January 10th the cold pattern should be fully locked in. It's normal to have some transient warmth especially at the beginning of a pattern change. It's best to go with a blend of GFS/Euro ensembles during pattern changes especially in the LR. The GEFS at hour 240 has most of the nation at or slightly below average whereas the comparable GFS run at the same time has only the western half of the US cold. In short the GFS is struggling as usual with the pattern change right now especially outside the 6-7 day range. image.png That's what I kind of figured. We may need another week or so to see how the pattern is going unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Not worried about that happening since Euro and its ensembles still show a good pattern and in fact have trended better after January 9th. GFS struggles during transition periods or volatile weather patterns. Look at the verification scores below and you can see at times it struggles in a big way vs the Euro. The first week of January there will be a "warmup" to seasonal or slightly above but that will be transient and after January 10th the cold pattern should be fully locked in. It's normal to have some transient warmth especially at the beginning of a pattern change. It's best to go with a blend of GFS/Euro ensembles during pattern changes especially in the LR. The GEFS at hour 240 has most of the nation at or slightly below average whereas the comparable GFS run at the same time has only the western half of the US cold. In short the GFS is struggling as usual with the pattern change right now especially outside the 6-7 day range. image.png This was a solid post. I was lamenting about the same issue with the op runs in the MA forum and a trusted met and one of the best on the board from the NYC forum chimed in with what you state here. Looking at the op runs for the LR will make you reach for the whiskey and a rubber mallet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 This was a solid post. I was lamenting about the same issue with the op runs in the MA forum and a trusted met and one of the best on the board from the NYC forum chimed in with what you state here. Looking at the op runs for the LR will make you reach for the whiskey and a rubber mallet. latest GFS is a classic example of this, 06Z yesterdays run had the storm around the 10-12th on the SE coast, on the 06Z this morning its way west close to the same track as the current system from TX to Wisc........that's a 1000 mile shift in 24 hrs...the GFS in the LR is iffy anyways but during a pattern change its all but useless..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 latest GFS is a classic example of this, 06Z yesterdays run had the storm around the 10-12th on the SE coast, on the 06Z this morning its way west close to the same track as the current system from TX to Wisc........that's a 1000 mile shift in 24 hrs...the GFS in the LR is iffy anyways but during a pattern change its all but useless..... gfs 061.png gfs_062.png #2 is the most likely to occur! Patterns tend to repeat, and this one is embedded like a tick on a coonhound ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 #2 is the most likely to occur! Patterns tend to repeat, and this one is embedded like a tick on a coonhound ! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 #2 is the most likely to occur! Patterns tend to repeat, and this one is embedded like a tick on a coonhound ! LOL...well once we get past Jan 10th things look better, I am nit picking but one thing I would want to see is higher heights in Hudson Bay for even a more suppressed storm track, verbatim though this looks really good and better than anything I expected all winter. But, it has to verify, still day 12+, which I have a feeling we are going to be saying a lot the next couple of weeks. For some reason we tend to see our winter events around Jan 20th +- a few days, that's kind of what I hoping for. The soil temps are a concern but they should get beaten down with intermittent cold shots and by Feb they should be a non issue, I hope. Put it this way, the last thing in the world I am worried about right now is soil temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 latest GFS is a classic example of this, 06Z yesterdays run had the storm around the 10-12th on the SE coast, on the 06Z this morning its way west close to the same track as the current system from TX to Wisc........that's a 1000 mile shift in 24 hrs...the GFS in the LR is iffy anyways but during a pattern change its all but useless..... Yeah the low-res 336 hour GFS seems to waft a lot in the cool season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Great to finally see the language "pattern change" in the KGSP long range: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PATTERN CHANGE! THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY AS A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH DIVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PHASES WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND SERVES TO DEEPEN THE ENTIRE SYSTEM OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL RIDGE INTO OUR AREA...BRINGING SOME MUCH-NEEDED TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION. IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING. NOT REALLY A NORTHWEST FLOW SITUATION...STILL MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH OOMPH LEFT TO GET SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOT ADVERTISED THIS IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FINALLY REACHING FREEZING AGAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND POSSIBLY SOME TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. A COUPLE OF INTERESTING ITEMS TO NOTE...THE LAST TIME THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES /KAVL KGSP KCLT/ WAS BELOW FREEZING WAS 12/20. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE AND THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD...HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND MAY ACTUALLY DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINATING FEATURE WITH GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Man oh man. The Euro control has the AO going negative on the 2nd now, but it drops to -4 by Jan 7th. NAO drops to -2.1 by the 4th and does rise to -1.5 by the 7th. PNA goes to +2 then drops to +1 by the end of the run. The EPO does not dive as deep as once, but still goes -3.5. The EPS shows the same, just not as negative and even has the NAO popping slightly positive at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Could it be? The most rare of all weather phenomenon? The allusive negative NAO? Finally starting to show up in the LR: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I think we are allowed to post the GFS. If not, please delete mods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Euro ensembles continue to give the ideal pattern. If we don't score it ain't because of a crap pattern or teleconnections. " I don't always hug models, but when I do I prefer the euro ensembles." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yeah the low-res 336 hour GFS seems to waft a lot in the cool season. The bolded is all that needs to be said I'm sooooooo tired of looking at long range maps being posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 That's long range. For short range from 36 hours to 120 hours use the euro op and ukmet. If GFS is saying something in not in agreement with those 2 models, it's a huge red flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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