WXinCanton Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Euro looks to be coming around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Most of the time, and it doesn't matter what the oceans are or aren't doing, we need a decent high pressure in a good spot, not moving out, in order to have a big, widespread winter storm. Most of the time, we don't. That's why most of the time, we get rain or a sloppy mix outside of the mountains and western Piedmont areas. If we have a big high in a good spot, we'll be fine, just like always. Problem is, we usually don't. Warm oceans....nino's...and yet it's our highest averaged for snow enso. Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 What's going on around here...in Nov/early Dec I was getting killed for being "negative" about the pattern and now we are moving to a canonical Nino pattern and I am somewhere upbeat about long term chances and everyone else is negative. LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 What's going on around here...in Nov/early Dec I was getting killed for being "negative" about the pattern and now we are moving to a canonical Nino pattern and I am somewhere upbeat about long term chances and everyone else is negative. LOL... I think it's just a product of being 8 days out, but man, you rarely see a "pattern shift" move up in time, but if anything, this one has. It may not be enough of a shift to get much of the SE snow, but it beats the heck out of the pattern we've seen the last 2.5 months. I share your optimism and timeline; though my WAG is that we probably won't see many chances until the 2nd week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Warm oceans....nino's...and yet it's our highest averaged for snow enso. Hmmm... The strongest Ninos' in history correlate to highest average snows for you? Really? By warm oceans I don't mean just the pacific. Look at the warm waters in the east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I think it's just a product of being 8 days out, but man, you rarely see a "pattern shift" move up in time, but if anything, this one has. It may not be enough of a shift to get much of the SE snow, but it beats the heck out of the pattern we've seen the last 2.5 months. Agreed...climo/elevations will be favored...a deep cutoff tracking to our south would go a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The strongest Ninos' in history correlate to highest average snows for you? Really? By warm oceans I don't mean just the pacific. Look at the warm waters in the east! We have a similar Atlantic to last 2 winters and we snowed...but agree, looking forward to AMO shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Agreed...climo/elevations will be favored...a deep cutoff tracking to our south would go a long way. I can see WNC getting a really big dog or two this year. Gonna be feast or famine for them this Winter. Right now they're starving like the rest of us, but at some point, there'll be some cold around for one of these and the higher elevations will bank. Might be a really frustrating winter for us Lee folks again though- hopefully we can indeed get that Southern track going with a chill in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I have my eyes on the storm depicted by the GFS and now the Euro around January 1st. Both have the storm a little too far offshore but if it trends NW any then we could be looking at a potential snow threat. Something to watch closely as the cold air will either be in place already (GFS) or very close by (Euro). I could easily see this trend stronger and amplify sooner which would adjust the track NW. Being 198-216 hours out its getting in the time range where models start picking up on it a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 What's going on around here...in Nov/early Dec I was getting killed for being "negative" about the pattern and now we are moving to a canonical Nino pattern and I am somewhere upbeat about long term chances and everyone else is negative. LOL...I wasn't negative before am I'm not negative now. Winter will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 To bad it's the end of the run... Canadian starts to get extra happy with the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Curious LR battle between GEFS/EPS...GEFS has -EPO on steroids and EPS doesn't and thus days 12+ are much colder on GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Curious LR battle between GEFS/EPS...GEFS has -EPO on steroids and EPS doesn't and thus days 12+ are much colder on GEFS. The GFS ensembles received a resolution upgrade recently if I remember correctly? This may be a good test to see which one handles the pattern change better. Analogs suggest the GEFS solution as more viable but the Euro does have a good track record.. Question is are its ensembles just as good too? One other question I haven't seen addressed anywhere but thought I would bring it up. The CMC has a strong PNA ridge at the end of its run with a 1049mb high centered over Nevada where there is abundant snow due to the STJ/El Nino. Could the early season snows in these areas (November and December) act to help build/establish a strong PNA ridge later in the winter due to the enhanced snow coverage and depth? Here is an image from the 12z CMC at your 240 showing the frigid temps under the HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I think I sense a disturbance in the force Luke. It must be the pattern changing. Multiple models bringing the arctic hammer! (Waxes sled) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 January 1-2nd storm still there. So close to being something, just need the vort to go at least neutral tilt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 January 1-2nd storm still there. So close to being something, just need the vort to go at least neutral tilt... The signal has been there forever too, at least the last 7 days for something in the Jan1-4th timeframe.....still in the 7-10 day range though....still would rather see that look there than a huge SE ridge.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Not sure we get anything but it will usher in the COLD air behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 What's that happening over the Okie panhandle at 222? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 man oh so close, great look still. plenty of cold air too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 live video shortly if yall want to say hello https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 TWC is now predicting snow showers Friday night (Jan 1), Saturday night through Sunday morning, and rain mixed with snow Monday night for my area. Hopefully we can get some frozen precip out of this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 December 29-30 needs to be watched closely. Euro has a 1045mb high centered over SE Canada creating a weak CAD wedge and GFS run as of 00z is much stronger with the wedge, ice all the way to the NC/VA border in the CAD regions. It is also weaker with the surface low out west (less WAA) and stronger with the high compared with previous runs. With the system still 120 hours out some small changes like HP placement/strength and LP placement/strength could further increase the CAD effect. Quicker overrunning precip like the GFS shows would help while a further west low with less overrunning wouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 00z says, what storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 00z says, what storm?It's ok if GFS loses the storm 8 days out, that's normal, and it's the 0z, throw it out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 00z says, what storm? It looks like it either has the energy moving through much quicker or tries to string the second piece out.. But it does bring the cold down with subfreezing high temps several days in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 It's ok if GFS loses the storm 8 days out, that's normal, and it's the 0z, throw it out! still plenty cold as we bring in 2016 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 It looks like it either has the energy moving through much quicker or tries to string the second piece out.. But it does bring the cold down with subfreezing high temps several days in a row. i think it was quicker and further inland. came in before the arctic blast, so no go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Hard to dislike the GFS run. While there is no major fantasy snow, you have to be happy with a bunch of short waves showing up in texas with a negatively tilted through (throughout the run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 00z says, what storm? Nah it didn't lose the storm, it is just very suppressed and moves it fairly quickly east. The particular storm this far out isn't very important, but rather the overall pattern the first week or so of January. Shortwave after shortwave. I have to say the pattern change (as of now) might be exactly what we've been looking for: cold air in place, with an active southern jet...with a look like that, someone is going to get something. I'm just happy to get out of this enhanced +AO phase and into something more neutral/slightly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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