2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion

[Cold Rain]

I remember growing up, systems used to travel west to east occasionally, across the country. Now, 99% of the time, they track SW to NE. Maybe at some point, we can get the trough to set up somewhere over the east, so we can get a SW to NE moving system to pass to our east.

But probably not.

[Met1985]

I remember growing up, systems used to travel west to east occasionally, across the country. Now, 99% of the time, they track SW to NE. Maybe at some point, we can get the trough to set up somewhere over the east, so we can get a SW to NE moving system to pass to our east.

But probably not.

Lol we will never see blocking in the Nao region in the winter in our lifetime. Seriously I don't think it will develop anytime soon or even next month.

[Cold Rain]

Lol we will never see blocking in the Nao region in the winter in our lifetime. Seriously I don't think it will develop anytime soon or even next month.

Yeah man, I don't know.... It seems like an uphill battle every year when it comes to any blocking at all. During the spring, summer, and fall though, no problem at all.

[mackerel_sky]

Yeah man, I don't know.... It seems like an uphill battle every year when it comes to any blocking at all. During the spring, summer, and fall though, no problem at all.

I just need to move up there near Met1985! I can be at 60 and sunny, and he's at 21 and snow! Always jelly of that location! He will still finish at 30"+ this year!

[FallsLake]

I remember growing up, systems used to travel west to east occasionally, across the country. Now, 99% of the time, they track SW to NE. Maybe at some point, we can get the trough to set up somewhere over the east, so we can get a SW to NE moving system to pass to our east.

But probably not.

I think as we get older (I'm using me as an example) we only remember the good/highlights of our life. I can remember some great snow and ice storms; but there were also some bad winters back in the day. Even just looking back to the early to mid 90s there were some horrible winters. I remember as a kid going through winters were we didn't get any some until February (like we did the last two years). Honestly, I think we're doing as good, or you could say bad, as we've always done.    

[Jon]

RaleighWx has this...

Here's another one by HM. It's similar to the one I posted and Allan's, the 500mb doesn't give the 2m's justice. Btw as with anything sample size is an issue so it's fwiw. Only 3 strong Ninos got to phase 8-1 in Jan from what I understand.

[Met1985]

I just need to move up there near Met1985! I can be at 60 and sunny, and he's at 21 and snow! Always jelly of that location! He will still finish at 30"+ this year!

Lol I hope. All we need are a few 10 inch snows which is completely possible but this pattern is just crazy for this time of the year.

[NCSNOW]

Hang Tight Boys. Not this weekend but the next one (1st one of 2016) some on here will be preparing for "Glory." Big changes are finally coming the old fashioned way with lows ejecting out of the 4 corners region. We'll miss out on the first one but after that it's game on. By the way Gotta get the grass cut and cleaned up before the Christmas feast (in-laws). Put out rye and the yard looks like a fairway. Green as it's ever been.

[NCSNOW]

Lol I hope. All we need are a few 10 inch snows which is completely possible but this pattern is just crazy for this time of the year.

 This isn't wishcasting, but the pattern is very conducive to bring a big dog, HSECS. So much qpf thanks to the stj. . I'll be shocked if someone in NC outside of the mtns  doesn't get a double digit (10+) storm this year. I could see this happening more than on one occasion in the mtns. Cold  is another story, espeacilly sustained cold.

[Brick Tamland]

I remember growing up, systems used to travel west to east occasionally, across the country. Now, 99% of the time, they track SW to NE. Maybe at some point, we can get the trough to set up somewhere over the east, so we can get a SW to NE moving system to pass to our east.

But probably not.

 

I remember it used to be if it went through Texas, then we could count on it coming our way.

[nchighcountrywx]

In his morning update, Joe Bastardi says it's a coming in 10 to 15 days with the MJO getting into Phase 8.  However, a lot of initial guidance showing the significant cold being dropped into the Rockies, but Joe did mention that may correct East just a bit in time.   Just how far East remains to be seen.

[Jon]

GEFS has a -AO days 11-16...

 

Not a bad look in the 5-day mean.

 

The UK/Scandinavian trough developing w/ the Atlantic ridge and +PNA w/ heights in NW and N Central Canada will alow for a trough on the eastern seaboard. Clear split flow as well. The second week of Jan looks to be interesting as well if this holds.

[burgertime]

12z GFS showing more seasonal around the New Year thank goodness. Even has some potential maybe. 

[snowlover91]

Keep an eye on the January 1-3rd system. Cold air will already be in place and models trying to develop either a weak Gulf low or some overrunning into the colder air. Although this image shows "rain" the thickness values and 850 temps indicate it would likely be snow or a mix of snow/rain.

[DopplerWx]

yep 12z still has the storm is a little slower but plenty of cold air. love to see it showing up run to run at this range.

[packbacker]

GEFS has a -AO days 11-16...

 

 

Not a bad look in the 5-day mean.

 

 

The UK/Scandinavian trough developing w/ the Atlantic ridge and +PNA w/ heights in NW and N Central Canada will alow for a trough on the eastern seaboard. Clear split flow as well. The second week of Jan looks to be interesting as well if this holds.

 

This is what we want to see with the strat models, pushing off the pole over to eurasia and tilted egg shape...#ninobeastmode

 

This is fantasy op range but still nice to see...

[packbacker]

WB's Jan temp forecast....looks reasonable, probably a little cold as usual though.

 

 

[packbacker]

Warmth over the pole is nice to see with southern plains to east cold....#nino/+PNA/-EPO

[Brick Tamland]

Just saw a temp map for the start of January. Had most of NC in the teens and 20s.

[franklin NCwx]

WB's Jan temp forecast....looks reasonable, probably a little cold as usual though.

if anything its probably not cold enough back in Texas.

[packbacker]

if anything its probably not cold enough back in Texas.

 

Keep thinking this PNA/EPO spike/drop is short lived so we will see.  This first week or so Jan, as modeled, is looking very 58'ish.  If this comes to fruition this does favor a suppressed storm track with just enough cold, hopefully.

[max100]

Just saw a temp map for the start of January. Had most of NC in the teens and 20s.

Where is the map and does it include the rest of the SE???

[packbacker]

Where is the map and does it include the rest of the SE???

 

Op is here...ensembles are available on pay sites though.

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Krdu

[nflwxman]

Keep thinking this PNA/EPO spike/drop is short lived so we will see.  This first week or so Jan, as modeled, is looking very 58'ish.  If this comes to fruition this does favor a suppressed storm track with just enough cold, hopefully.

While it's a little to early to declare anything for sure in January, the CFS has trended away from the persistent NE ridge and horrific PAC that torched 1997-1998.  It's hard to imagine the looks on the long term climate and now ensembles suggest anything like a 98 redux.  Still, any storm in a nino will be warm and moisture laden, so we need a cold air source even with a suppressed track.  It will require a thread the needle event unless the AO or NAO goes negative.  At the earliest, that looks to happen the 2nd week of January.

[Met1985]

While it's a little to early to declare anything for sure in January, the CFS has trended away from the persistent NE ridge and horrific PAC that torched 1997-1998. It's hard to imagine the looks on the long term climate and now ensembles suggest anything like a 98 redux. Still, any storm in a nino will be warm and moisture laden, so we need a cold air source even with a suppressed track. It will require a thread the needle event unless the AO or NAO goes negative. At the earliest, that looks to happen the 2nd week of January.

Lol most snow storms in the south seem to be thread the needle except for the mountains. Year I think that's a good call for things to be a little more solid with storms.

[franklin NCwx]

Keep thinking this PNA/EPO spike/drop is short lived so we will see. This first week or so Jan, as modeled, is looking very 58'ish. If this comes to fruition this does favor a suppressed storm track with just enough cold, hopefully.

the Pacific should deliver for us this year, it's the ao and especially nao that will give us problems.

[LithiaWx]

While it's a little to early to declare anything for sure in January, the CFS has trended away from the persistent NE ridge and horrific PAC that torched 1997-1998. It's hard to imagine the looks on the long term climate and now ensembles suggest anything like a 98 redux. Still, any storm in a nino will be warm and moisture laden, so we need a cold air source even with a suppressed track. It will require a thread the needle event unless the AO or NAO goes negative. At the earliest, that looks to happen the 2nd week of January.

Warm and moisture laden storms is the key. Any major storms this year are going to come with a ton of WAA. That is not going to be easy to overcome. As Jeff says in the TN thread. Warm oceans are going to make borderline situations rain events. We usually struggle with WAA in non Nino years with not al ocean temps. This year is just a complete disaster. I don't see multiple major storms. We will be lucky to score one and that's a long shot IMO.

[Cold Rain]

Warm and moisture laden storms is the key. Any major storms this year are going to come with a ton of WAA. That is not going to be easy to overcome. As Jeff says in the TN thread. Warm oceans are going to make borderline situations rain events. We usually struggle with WAA in non Nino years with not al ocean temps. This year is just a complete disaster. I don't see multiple major storms. We will be lucky to score one and that's a long shot IMO.

Most of the time, and it doesn't matter what the oceans are or aren't doing, we need a decent high pressure in a good spot, not moving out, in order to have a big, widespread winter storm. Most of the time, we don't. That's why most of the time, we get rain or a sloppy mix outside of the mountains and western Piedmont areas.

If we have a big high in a good spot, we'll be fine, just like always. Problem is, we usually don't.

[mackerel_sky]

Warm and moisture laden storms is the key. Any major storms this year are going to come with a ton of WAA. That is not going to be easy to overcome. As Jeff says in the TN thread. Warm oceans are going to make borderline situations rain events. We usually struggle with WAA in non Nino years with not al ocean temps. This year is just a complete disaster. I don't see multiple major storms. We will be lucky to score one and that's a long shot IMO.

All our storms are borderline, so if we manage an arctic blast and we have any precip, we should be money!

[LithiaWx]

Most of the time, and it doesn't matter what the oceans are or aren't doing, we need a decent high pressure in a good spot, not moving out, in order to have a big, widespread winter storm. Most of the time, we don't. That's why most of the time, we get rain or a sloppy mix outside of the mountains and western Piedmont areas.

If we have a big high in a good spot, we'll be fine, just like always. Problem is, we usually don't.

I like getting a big high in a good spot. It usually involves a lot of fun.